81–90 of 155 posts
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Why do people compare market cap to a 1 year GDP?
Because they're both measured in terms of money, and humans tend to ignore time-derivatives. (The latter point is also why so many mix up energy and power).
Can't wait for the $2000 MSRP RTX 5080. The GTX 1080 (one of the greatest GPU of all time) was $599 in 2016 ($782 today) The RTX 4080 was $1199 in 2022 ($1284 today)
Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…
> Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? I think that's the wrong question: "impact" is necessary but not sufficient for "valuation", as the latter also requires you to not have much competition driving down your margin, and there's a lot of competition in AI software. NVIDIA, being the metaphorical shovel-seller, can probably justify current valuati…
Definitely a killer app though. Same as Google maps is a non-AI killer app.
Can't wait for the $2000 MSRP RTX 5080. The GTX 1080 (one of the greatest GPU of all time) was $599 in 2016 ($782 today) The RTX 4080 was $1199 in 2022 ($1284 today)
But the 4080 Super which is faster than the 4080 is $999...
Sure you can always wait for ever, there will be a 5080 Super one day too
Five years ago, Jensen Huang was worth $3 billion. Now he's worth sub $100 billion. Must be nice to go from Scrooge McDuck to ruler-of-the-universe level. 1- https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/05/28/nvidia-ceo...
I don't know. There are some benefits to be sure, but I figure that above some threshold (and 3B is definitely above that threshold) it becomes difficult to make new friends without worrying about their ulterior motives.
Isn't the point of being wealthy that you can buy friends, that this is exactly the sort of relationships the wealthy prefer?
It's not like anybody is forcing him to keep the money or the shares.
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Running into this same problem, the tech is progressing WAY faster than the org can transform to use the tech. I'm betting we end up transforming by aquiring a company that completed the transformation before us, and letting them run the show. The downside is I see a lot more job destruction that route vs the slow route we're currently on.
> Running into this same problem, the tech is progressing WAY faster than the org can transform to use the tech It has always been the case. As a society we are still very far from having harnessed the full power of 90s era computers. Companies routinely pay hundreds of workers and even executives, to do things that computers are better at doing. For instance: managing plannings in big organizations.
It was out of an old movie. Folders and coffee cups absolutely everywhere. Walls of well-used filing cabinets. The directors office was comical, you had to look over the piles if you were sitting. 15 year old computers were there but second fiddle.
Honestly it was charming and made me nostalgic. It was also a reminder of exactly what you’re saying. Millions worth of NYC rentals run by a paper-driven org. The future is distributed unevenly indeed.
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> as a trained philosopher, I don't buy into the whole AGI nonsense Can you elaborate on why you believe AGI is nonsense? > ignoring the way more value-generating aspects (synthesis, categorization, summarization, etc.) Summarization is one of the most common applications of LLMs I see. I expect if I knew more precisely what you meant by the other two we'd find examples of those, too. Everybody is trying to find out…
> Can you elaborate on why you believe AGI is nonsense? John Searle is much smarter than I am and he elaborated plenty on this in the 80s. (But more saliently, I think it's absurd to think our brains, or brains in general, do polynomial curve fitting in any meaningful sense.) > Summarization is one of the most common applications of LLMs I see. This is true, though the workflow is extremely cumbersome. > People are d…
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> Can you elaborate on why you believe AGI is nonsense? John Searle is much smarter than I am and he elaborated plenty on this in the 80s. (But more saliently, I think it's absurd to think our brains, or brains in general, do polynomial curve fitting in any meaningful sense.) > Summarization is one of the most common applications of LLMs I see. This is true, though the workflow is extremely cumbersome. > People are d…
Searle's arguments aren't that broad. If you're thinking of the Chinese Room, the point there is simply that computation isn't understanding. It's not a claim that AGI is nonsense in principle , and in fact most of these older arguments are narrowly scoped to GOFAI. Of course nobody serious thinks LLMs have minds, either, but unless you believe in ghosts it's hard to make a case that human-like AGI shouldn't ultimate…
Thanks for chiming in as I'm completely unfamiliar with Searle.
I don't believe in immaterial human souls, therefore self-aware AGI appears to be a near inevitability of technological advancement from my perspective. To suggest that it's impossible is, in my opinion, absurd.
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I'm getting very weary of reading this analogy, especially when it's given no thought whatsoever. Did you know? Every gold rush in history has ended. If you have a shovel factory that burns millions of dollars a day to sell as many shovels as you can, and you're not prepared for people to give up on digging for gold, you're going to very suddenly start burning your profits.
The main threat to Nvidia is the fact that big clients might start producing their own chips (like Apple is doing and MSFT has started). And they will start offering them to their users who is now leveraging Nvidia's solutions. And AMD and Intel might wake up from coma too. Though Nvidia is trying to pivot towards more cloud and software solutions. Let's see.
What shovels are Apple and MSFT buying to make their own chips?
I mean, who is making Apple's and MSFT's AI chips? I'd buy their stock.