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Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

reuters.com

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Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#81

Post by biotopia »

adamsb6 wrote: post #20
holoduke wrote: post #2

I wonder if these actions will have the opposite effect. China will only more invest into producing their own. And I think we should not underestimate them. Could be good for competition though.

Steve Hsu has had guests on his podcasts saying exactly this. There was already a domestic semiconductor industry but big players almost never used them since the big semiconductor companies were such a safe bet. Well, now they’re forced to use them, and they’re growing. With the fabs available to them they can’t produce latest gen very few nanometer dies, but for a lot of use cases that doesn’t matter. And of course…

That's what every Chinese fanboys on this forum keeps repeating: so many Chinese graduates! However, with unofficial 40% youth unemployment rate and 10k chip companies shutting down in 2023 https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/manufacturing/chi..., where would these graduates actually work? realistic answer is that they're right now delivering food or driving didi. or laying flat doing nothing.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#82

Post by pi-e-sigma »

a_crc wrote: post #80
pi-e-sigma wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As if the ASML machines were all that is needed for making cutting edge semiconductors. Why TSMC is in Taiwan and not in Denmark then?

|Why TSMC is in Taiwan and not in Denmark then? Because the Taiwanese government paid for it to be there in the 80's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC#History

Whoosh :)

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#83

Post by The_Colonel »

cjfd wrote: post #48
ahoka wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still spreads your opponents resources thinner, from a strictly game theory perspective.

Meh, from a strict game theory perspective restricting trade makes both sides poorer. You know, both parties in a trading contract only sign on the dotted line if both are advantaged by it.

Not to the same degree. The world economy is hurt by sanctions on North Korea, but not that much. The other way round though ...

China is on a different scale, but still the losses are asymmetrical, at least relatively speaking.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#84

Post by biotopia »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #64
rawrawrawrr wrote: post #3

> Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on Tuesday urged the Netherlands "to be impartial, respect market principles and the law, take practical actions to protect the common interests of both countries and their companies and maintain the stability of international supply chains". This amuses me greatly. I had no idea China is explicitly pro-market capitalism.

China has been pro-market since the 80s. But they don't view markets as fundamentally incompatible with socialism. Their approach is to utilize markets and to further open up, but to step in when the market fails. In other words: yes to markets, but use it as a tool and don't trust it blindly. For example the recent real estate bubble pop was intentional. They've recognized for a decade that the real estate market is…

China was pro-market until Xi Jing Ping tightened control. The moment when everyone realized that things had changed was when Jack Ma's ant group was prevented from going IPO, and Jack disappeared shortly after for a long while. Now it's regressing quickly back into state controlled economy.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#85

Post by epolanski »

SkyMarshal wrote: post #67
Kaotique wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is just a delaying tactic. ASML is 5-10 years ahead in their technology so it will take a while for China to catch up. Which will grant the USA some extra time to build its own chip industry and not be dependent on two or three other countries.

Yes, though it's not only about delaying China so the US can catch up in semiconductors, but also about trying to delay China so that they miss their window of opportunity to invade Taiwan. Xi's aim is to reunify Taiwan with the mainland sometime in the 2020s. The US is trying to deter that using a comprehensive deterrence strategy - military, diplomatic, economic. Hence new US bases in northern Philippines, US suppo…

I really dislike this warmongering.

Looking at the last 150 years, or even the most recent decades, it's us having a history of invading countries or conducting military operations to support different parties.

Yet, we are so blind of that. China has been mostly on the receiving stick (by European countries as well), not the offending one. Even when it comes to Vietnam or Korea it has been us who meddled in those internal conflicts first by sending troops.

Even when it comes to Taiwan, it's still us who have settled on a policy of ambiguity and defense of a country we legally recognize as a government of the same unique Chinese country, after avoiding to even recognize the PRC for 3 decades.

Even though we keep meddling and deciding the policies of half the world, we still keep demonizing any potential geopolitical entity and we keep pushing everyone in a vassal-attitude due to the unmatched economic, cultural and military power of the US.

Yet countries like China, Russia, and many others, will just never play fiddle to that.

This hawkish paranoia does nothing but further push China to defend its own geopolitical interests and further poke their aggression.

And where we needed a more hawkish paranoia, as in case of Russia, we failed and still keep failing to do so, because Russia has never really been in the economic and financial position to threaten our geopolitical interests to the extent that China can.

The way I see it, western countries and US should take a clear stand about Taiwanese statehood, and Taiwan needs to do it first on their own in order for the rest of the world to take a stand, as they legally still lay claim on the entirety of China (and beyond).

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#86

Post by denton-scratch »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #45
corethree wrote: post #37

Hypothetical question... if China banned all trade with the US what would happen to the US? And what would happen to china?

Wouldn’t we just be back to the 1950-1970s again? China bans all trade, except through Hong Kong. The rest of the world doesn’t notice much, China is really poor. Just look at North Korea, that is basically what juche is.

> except through Hong Kong.

Pardon my ignorance. Why would China make that exception? Is Hong Kong a more important trading centre than (say) Shanghai?

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#87

Post by The_Colonel »

andy_ppp wrote: post #72
mensetmanusman wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

If you think about how difficult invading Ukraine has been for Russia, add in 100 miles of water for the most inexperienced navy in the world and it would likely be a blood bath. I've always wondered if sinking a super carrier (group?) off your coastline is a great idea. They all carry a massive nuclear reactor onboard, I'm assuming the US has some pretty good technologies to mitigate these new Chinese carrier destro…

It doesn't make much sense to compare Ukraine and Taiwan. Those are very different wars, with Taiwan / US having also huge challenges.

> I've always wondered if sinking a super carrier (group?) off your coastline is a great idea.

There are 9 sunken nuclear submarines lying on the sea floor. I have doubts about this being a big deterrent. The carrier group is also unlikely to be close to the coastline.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#88

Post by andy_ppp »

epolanski wrote: post #78
andy_ppp wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately for the Chinese it's extremely tricky for even private capital to pick the winners in these spaces. I'd guess there is almost zero chance the Chinese government giving out free cash beat the market and even build the right stuff. Can they even build the light sources or optics for these devices. Don't Zeiss make the flattest mirrors ever made for this? There's probably hundreds of technologies that are…

They have already proved time and time again to be able to make gigantic leaps, some of those, completely on their own in the sector. Pouring billions in the sector highly increases the chances of breakthrough technologies. I personally think more competition in the space is good for everyone, albeit I'm not a fan of those trade wars, they accomplish little at the end of the day and they are funded with a lot of our…

Okay only time will tell. Which technologies has Chinese capital (rather than American capital) been successful at funding, I think display technology and solar panels they are ahead on, anything else?

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#89

Post by ksec »

biotopia wrote: post #75
ksec wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As other have said this is already happening with Huawei and SMIC. And this is DUV, not EUV. China has already poured billions into it, and will continue to do so until it is somewhat cost neutral. 98% of smartphone outside of Apple and Samsung are Chinese brand. Their domestic market will be the first to use some of these chips, to use the term HN may have heard of it, To eat its own dog food. It isn't just Foundry…

Apple is not behind it. if anything apple and its taiwan subcontractors are actively moving away from Chinese suppliers. https://www.ft.com/content/1eee7956-a5be-4df0-a9a9-139c573c4... . https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Supply-Chain/Apple-s-Taiwa...

Apple has been behind it since 2016. ( Arguably even before then but that is another topic ) They only started to move away in 2023.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#90

Post by esafak »

sofixa wrote: post #77
Roark66 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every country in the world is supposed to work to further the interests of its citizens (in accordance with human rights, international agreements etc). Trying to appeal to some higher ideal of "free market" between countries is just silly. Did China and EU sign a comprehensive free trade agreement when I was asleep? (as Netherlands is an EU country and all cross border trade lawmaking is offloaded to the EU). If not…

> Trying to appeal to some higher ideal of "free market" between countries is just silly Tell that to the US and Americans that don't shut up about it any time a country other than theirs does something even vaguely protectionist. It will never not be funny that Boeing pushed Bombardier over the edge with protectionist tariffs over state subsidies while simultaneously suing Airbus for getting state subsidies while si…

A selective memory works wonders for cognitive dissonance. Doctor approved!
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