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Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

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Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#81

Post by cartoonworld »

achenatx wrote: post #69
cartoonworld wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it is much more precise to state that they must be replicating in order to mutate. I've edited my comment to reflect this, Thanks :) If RNA is damaged and changed and the virus particle is destroyed or for some reason never replicates, I don't count that as mutating, but then again what do I know.

bacteria mostly need to be replicating to spread mutations as well. There are mechanisms for bacteria to uptake dna in the environment and incorporate it (e.g. antibiotic resistance). But without replication of the bacteria the resistance wont spread. One interesting point is that in general biology they teach that lamarckian evolution doesnt exist, but bacterial uptake of DNA demonstrates that it does exist.

Yes but the bacterial infection can go up and down or last a while, this is a general case for bacteria.

The Sars-CoV-2 virus (provisionally) doesn't seem to infect and then suppress only to re-emerge later in a new infection, or hang around as an active infection for months. People get sick and their illness lasts a big armful of days.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#82

Post by nanis »

jfrankamp wrote: post #64
TheBlight wrote: post #2

I was told this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated.

You were told correctly? Brad Little of Idaho says greater than 98% of cases, hospitalizations and deaths are unvaccinated (link below). Cases are probably the most unstable of those stats, but the point is unvaccinated folks are bearing the majority of the pain. https://twitter.com/GovernorLittle/status/142593002008663654...

If you look at the press release[1]:

> 98.9-percent of new COVID-19 cases since Jan. 1, 2021, were people not vaccinated

> 98.6-percent of COVID-19 hospitalizations since Jan. 1, 2021, were people not vaccinated

> 98.7-percent of COVID-19 deaths since Jan. 1, 2021, were people not vaccinated

These kinds of numbers games naturally lead one to suspect an agenda.

On January 12, 2021, a grand total of 0.24 percent of the Idaho population was fully vaccinated.

> Since May 15, there have been 10-times as many COVID-19 cases among unvaccinated people compared to vaccinated people

> Since May 15, there have been 13-times as many COVID-19 hospitalizations among unvaccinated people compared to vaccinated people

> Since May 15, there have been 8-times as many COVID-19 deaths among unvaccinated people compared to vaccinated people.

As of May 15, 31% of Idhoans were fully vaccinated[2].

> Over 197 million Americans have received the vaccine safely.

According to the CDC[3],

C> As of August 30, 2021, more than 173 million people in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19.

Why does the governor feel the need to overstate the number of fully vaccinated people by almost 14% in a press release dated Thursday August 12, 2021?

[1]: https://gov.idaho.gov/pressrelease/idahoans-urged-to-receive...

[2]: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/f6217a7ccbd2fbcfd...

[3]: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/bre...

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#83

Post by chaganated »

Lammy wrote: post #48
achenatx wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dumb people are going to want to go to covid parties to get infected naturally because it is better immunity.. Public health messages need to be kept simple. Natural immunity should be better because you are exposed to all the same proteins in the vaccine plus more and also possibly for a longer period of time and at a higher quantity. Now that you had delta, you should be immune to delta and partially immune to what…

> Dumb people How did we get to the point where we have to act like other humans are mentally inferior/incapable just for experiencing reality in their own unique way if it differs from our own? e: me irl https://i.imgur.com/is5pp8k.gif

college business model--churning out overcredentialed midwits with illusions of total mastery. compare to socrates, who knew that he knew nothing.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#84

Post by rspeele »

spuz wrote: post #3

> it takes eight times as many antibodies from a vaccinated individual to block the virus If this is the case, then how can we explain how vaccinated individuals experience less severe symptoms and fewer deaths? Is it because once vaccinated, the immune system is able to respond to this 8x higher demand?

The specific part you excerpted, by itself, is confusing. When I read just your comment, having not read the article, I interpreted it as:

"it takes eight times as many antibodies from a vaccinated individual to block the virus [compared to an unvaccinated individual]"

When I went to find the excerpt within the article, I realized in context it meant:

"it takes eight times as many antibodies from a vaccinated individual to block the [delta variant] virus [compared to blocking the alpha virus]"

And separately offers the information that for antibodies from natural immunity, the difficulty jump from alpha to delta is 5.7x instead of 8x. Which would suggest that having natural immunity could be better than having only vaccine immunity, but definitely doesn't suggest that being unvaccinated is better than being vaccinated. So there's no mystery for vaccinated individuals having better odds against COVID than unvaccinated ones.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#85

Post by alex_c »

TheBlight wrote: post #76
alex_c wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, I'll bite. Ontario had 554 new reported cases of COVID yesterday. Of these cases: - 319 were not vaccinated (213 of these were 12+ and therefore eligible to be vaccinated) - 56 were partially vaccinated - 136 were fully vaccinated - 44 unknown In other words, roughly 16% of the population (eligible but not vaccinated) is driving close to 40% of reported cases. OK, but reported cases are blah blah, who cares, righ…

Where I live teachers/in-classroom workers who are unvaccinated are tested 4x per month and vaccinated are tested 1x. You can draw your own conclusions.

That unvaccinated people are higher risk of getting and spreading Covid? I agree, although I'm not sure what is the significance of the 4:1 ratio. Ontario's numbers suggest a risk ratio closer to 7:1 or 8:1 right now.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#86

Post by nanis »

achenatx wrote: post #78
nanis wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Covid has a death rate of .5% (higher for older people, lower for younger) That is a very bold statement, given that mild cases are less likely to be recorded in official data sets, affecting the denominator much more for younger people than older people. What we do know is that a total of 412 people between the ages 0-17 are known to have died from Covid19 in the U.S. since January 1, 2020. Total deaths from all c…

I agree the death rate for children under 12 is probably very low. It could be as low as .01%. I specifically wrote the rate is lower for younger people. We will get a better idea of the death rate in children under 12 this year. As far as I know it is still holding very low.

> I specifically wrote the rate is lower for younger people.

Exactly. The question is how much lower. If, as it seems, it is low enough compared to all the other things that might harm a child, it would be rational to introduce them to the actual virus early and often.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#87

Post by rspeele »

nanis wrote: post #82
jfrankamp wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You were told correctly? Brad Little of Idaho says greater than 98% of cases, hospitalizations and deaths are unvaccinated (link below). Cases are probably the most unstable of those stats, but the point is unvaccinated folks are bearing the majority of the pain. https://twitter.com/GovernorLittle/status/142593002008663654...

If you look at the press release[1]: > 98.9-percent of new COVID-19 cases since Jan. 1, 2021, were people not vaccinated > 98.6-percent of COVID-19 hospitalizations since Jan. 1, 2021, were people not vaccinated > 98.7-percent of COVID-19 deaths since Jan. 1, 2021, were people not vaccinated These kinds of numbers games naturally lead one to suspect an agenda. On January 12, 2021, a grand total of 0.24 percent of the…

If somebody has only had 1 shot, it is fair to say that they "have received the vaccine safely", but they are not yet "fully vaccinated". Hence the discrepancy between the 197m and 173m.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#88

Post by TheBlight »

gfodor wrote: post #8
arbuge wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What that means is that the unvaccinated are much more likely to become seriously ill if infected: https://www.axios.com/unvaccinated-hospitalized-covid-60dc90... It does not mean that the vaccinated cannot spread disease, however.

There is presently to my understanding a lot of claims of severity reduction, but I would like to see evidence and an explanation for it. My working model is that a consistent alternative explanation is the vaccine reduces infection risk dramatically but once infected severity can be the same.

I've been trying to find accurate signals of this and haven't found much. I've only really spent time looking into the Data:

Graph from the CDC: https://i.imgur.com/Ql25IjB.png Source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e1.htm

Spreadsheet based on weekly UK data: https://i.imgur.com/yySYFyd.png Source (PDF warning): https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

And a Twitter thread on Israel for good measure: https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1434237628258344961

All of this data says the same thing to me. Basically if you're younger there is no significant evidence these vaccines reduce your risk.

In the CDC case: They show 1-2 unvaccinated hospitalized cases out of 100k and In the UK case: ~0.5% less incidence of hospitalization for In the Israeli thread: Author comes to the opposite conclusion and decides to call risk reduction 90% even though they're comparing 2 extremely tiny numbers. Both less than 1 severe case out of 100,000.

If the improvement over severe outcomes is so stark, as many claim, then where should I look to see this data such that I can come to agreement?

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#89

Post by nanis »

rspeele wrote: post #87
nanis wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you look at the press release[1]: > 98.9-percent of new COVID-19 cases since Jan. 1, 2021, were people not vaccinated > 98.6-percent of COVID-19 hospitalizations since Jan. 1, 2021, were people not vaccinated > 98.7-percent of COVID-19 deaths since Jan. 1, 2021, were people not vaccinated These kinds of numbers games naturally lead one to suspect an agenda. On January 12, 2021, a grand total of 0.24 percent of the…

If somebody has only had 1 shot, it is fair to say that they "have received the vaccine safely", but they are not yet "fully vaccinated". Hence the discrepancy between the 197m and 173m.

If that's the interpretation you want to go with, then the rule has to be followed consistently by reporting deaths from Covid19 among all people who "received the vaccine safely" instead of restricting such reporting to the "fully vaccinated".

Just a few lines above, he is counting as "unvaccinated" all people who are not "fully vaccinated".

Again, trust in people doing this song & dance would be higher if they did not constantly resort to tricks like this.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#90

Post by TheBlight »

alex_c wrote: post #85
TheBlight wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where I live teachers/in-classroom workers who are unvaccinated are tested 4x per month and vaccinated are tested 1x. You can draw your own conclusions.

That unvaccinated people are higher risk of getting and spreading Covid? I agree, although I'm not sure what is the significance of the 4:1 ratio. Ontario's numbers suggest a risk ratio closer to 7:1 or 8:1 right now.

Ok clearly you don't want to discuss this honestly if you want to hand-wave away the fact that unvaccinated people have much stricter testing requirements and as a consequence are tested substantially more often.
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