Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity • Hacker News Board

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#41

Post by bjtitus » Wed, Sep 08, 2021, 5:13 PM UTC

achenatx wrote: post #21

listless wrote: post #17

> “The team found that the Delta variant virus was 5.7-fold less sensitive to the sera from previously-infected individuals, and as much as eight-fold less sensitive to vaccine sera” I read this as “natural immunity is better”. Unless I’m reading that wrong, why don’t we hear more about this? I’m vaccinated AND got a breakthrough infection and I’m worried that my immunity is weaker than that of my wife who was unvacc…

Dumb people are going to want to go to covid parties to get infected naturally because it is better immunity.. Public health messages need to be kept simple. Natural immunity should be better because you are exposed to all the same proteins in the vaccine plus more and also possibly for a longer period of time and at a higher quantity. Now that you had delta, you should be immune to delta and partially immune to what…

> Natural immunity should be better because you are exposed to all the same proteins in the vaccine plus more

This directly contradicts what immunologists seem to be finding as in the "Antibodies elicited by mRNA-1273 vaccination bind more broadly to the receptor binding domain than do those from SARS-CoV-2 infection" [1] study.

Summarized by the director of the NIH [2]:

> antibodies elicited by the mRNA vaccine were more focused to the RBD compared to antibodies elicited by an infection, which more often targeted other portions of the spike protein. Importantly, the vaccine-elicited antibodies targeted a broader range of places on the RBD than those elicited by natural infection.

If there's one thing we should learn from this pandemic it seems like the complexity and non-intuitiveness of the immune system is amongst them.

1: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34103407/

2: https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2021/06/22/how-immunity-genera...

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#42

Post by amanaplanacanal » Wed, Sep 08, 2021, 5:14 PM UTC

geofft wrote: post #20

TheBlight wrote: post #2

I was told this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated.

By whom? It's a pandemic, it affects everyone. It's right there in the name. I'm fully vaccinated, and I spent half an hour at a bank yesterday (wearing an N95) and I'm voluntarily quarantining for two weeks. It's a deadly disease. It doesn't care about your PR slogans or your political alignment. It does care about transmission, which is why avoiding unnecessary trips, wearing real ventilators (not cloth masks, Fauc…

Whether cloth masks “work” depends on your definition of work. They appear to be better than no mask at all, but not as good as surgical masks or N95 masks.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#43

Post by hristov » Wed, Sep 08, 2021, 5:14 PM UTC

listless wrote: post #17

> “The team found that the Delta variant virus was 5.7-fold less sensitive to the sera from previously-infected individuals, and as much as eight-fold less sensitive to vaccine sera” I read this as “natural immunity is better”. Unless I’m reading that wrong, why don’t we hear more about this? I’m vaccinated AND got a breakthrough infection and I’m worried that my immunity is weaker than that of my wife who was unvacc…

"Natural immunity is better" is a very misleading and dangerous statement. Many people take it to mean that their natural immunity is better even if they have never had a covid infection before. Many people, including young and recently healthy people are currently painfully and tragically dying in overcrowded hospitals because they believed that. Some especially misguided people have tried to get the virus intentionally so that they can get this much ballyhooed "natural immunity". The results have been predictably disastrous.

Yes, once you have had the virus and are lucky enough to survive and recover, the natural immunity thus obtained is better. For several months. Then after about 6-9 months (afaik, check the cdc site for the exact period) your natural immunity wears out and you are better off getting a vaccine. But if you haven't had the virus, your natural immunity is not very good at protecting against it (that is why millions of people around the world have already died), and it is a very dangerous risk to take.

My cousin had covid and long covid after it. She got covid before vaccines were available. She got the vaccine as soon as recommended by doctors for people that have suffered from covid. She really did not want to repeat that experience.

States whose politicians have been talking up natural immunity are very hard hit. Hospitals throughout the south are overcrowded. There is a country wide shortage of oxygen, which may soon start resulting in more deaths. This is a very bad time to to talk up misleading notions of "natural immunity."

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#44

Post by marcosdumay » Wed, Sep 08, 2021, 5:15 PM UTC

listless wrote: post #17

> “The team found that the Delta variant virus was 5.7-fold less sensitive to the sera from previously-infected individuals, and as much as eight-fold less sensitive to vaccine sera” I read this as “natural immunity is better”. Unless I’m reading that wrong, why don’t we hear more about this? I’m vaccinated AND got a breakthrough infection and I’m worried that my immunity is weaker than that of my wife who was unvacc…

What kind of decisions would you make with that information?

If you got the vaccine and then got the disease, be happy, you've just acquired natural immunity on the easy way.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#45

Post by cloakandswagger » Wed, Sep 08, 2021, 5:16 PM UTC

achenatx wrote: post #21

listless wrote: post #17

> “The team found that the Delta variant virus was 5.7-fold less sensitive to the sera from previously-infected individuals, and as much as eight-fold less sensitive to vaccine sera” I read this as “natural immunity is better”. Unless I’m reading that wrong, why don’t we hear more about this? I’m vaccinated AND got a breakthrough infection and I’m worried that my immunity is weaker than that of my wife who was unvacc…

Dumb people are going to want to go to covid parties to get infected naturally because it is better immunity.. Public health messages need to be kept simple. Natural immunity should be better because you are exposed to all the same proteins in the vaccine plus more and also possibly for a longer period of time and at a higher quantity. Now that you had delta, you should be immune to delta and partially immune to what…

> Public health messages need to be kept simple.

By simple you mean, dishonest?

People aren't as dumb as our betters believe. They pick up on obvious lies ("stop buying masks" => "everyone must wear a mask"), dishonesty ("ivermectin is for animals") and inconsistencies that fly in the face of intuition ("even if you had covid you still need the vaccination").

If the powers that be would stop trying to "shape human behavior" through lying we wouldn't see nearly the same level of vaccine hesitance and alternative medicine we do right now.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#46

Post by qzw » Wed, Sep 08, 2021, 5:16 PM UTC

listless wrote: post #17

> “The team found that the Delta variant virus was 5.7-fold less sensitive to the sera from previously-infected individuals, and as much as eight-fold less sensitive to vaccine sera” I read this as “natural immunity is better”. Unless I’m reading that wrong, why don’t we hear more about this? I’m vaccinated AND got a breakthrough infection and I’m worried that my immunity is weaker than that of my wife who was unvacc…

I think the reason why it's so easy to spread misinformation (not just about COVID vaccines) is that there's just too many facts out there. It's easy to cherry pick facts without context to support any conclusion whatsoever. Another comment in this thread points out that vaccination typically gives 10,000-100,000 times the antibody needed to fight an infection. So the 5.7-fold vs 8-fold difference is fairly meaningless in the proper context, but it can create doubts wholly disproportionate to its significance.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#47

Post by rajin444 » Wed, Sep 08, 2021, 5:16 PM UTC

qzw wrote: post #33

criticaltinker wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Preliminary data from Israel suggests that immunity acquired through natural infection may be more robust to variants like delta, compared to vaccine induced immunity. See this preprint and discussion from a couple weeks ago [1]. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28307224

That's kind of beside the point. With natural infection, the risk of severe illness is also much higher. So for most people trying to get "better" immunity by natural infection is not a good tradeoff. It's kind of like saying that since it's extremely rare to get bitten by a shark twice, you should try to get a shark to bite you once in order to acquire "immunity" to sharks.

A lot of vaccine hesitancy (in the US at least) is driven by refusal to acknowledge natural immunity. Ignoring it is another "noblie lie" to help drive up vaccine numbers. It's much easier to say "just get the vaccine".

However, it's a massive ethical violation if the vaccine provides no improvement over natural immunity. It's still pretty bad if it only provides minimal improvement. "Just get the vaccine" would be an ok policy if there was a 0% chance of negative effects from the vaccine, but that is not true.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#48

Post by Lammy » Wed, Sep 08, 2021, 5:20 PM UTC

achenatx wrote: post #21

listless wrote: post #17

> “The team found that the Delta variant virus was 5.7-fold less sensitive to the sera from previously-infected individuals, and as much as eight-fold less sensitive to vaccine sera” I read this as “natural immunity is better”. Unless I’m reading that wrong, why don’t we hear more about this? I’m vaccinated AND got a breakthrough infection and I’m worried that my immunity is weaker than that of my wife who was unvacc…

Dumb people are going to want to go to covid parties to get infected naturally because it is better immunity.. Public health messages need to be kept simple. Natural immunity should be better because you are exposed to all the same proteins in the vaccine plus more and also possibly for a longer period of time and at a higher quantity. Now that you had delta, you should be immune to delta and partially immune to what…

> Dumb people

How did we get to the point where we have to act like other humans are mentally inferior/incapable just for experiencing reality in their own unique way if it differs from our own?

e: me irl https://i.imgur.com/is5pp8k.gif

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#49

Post by cartoonworld » Wed, Sep 08, 2021, 5:20 PM UTC

achenatx wrote: post #30

isoprophlex wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> viral infections need to be infecting new hosts in order to experience meaningful mutations. Interesting! What causes this, is there some keyword i can search for in order to learn more?

The assertion is not correct, viruses do not need to spread to new hosts to experience meaningful mutation.

Yes, it is much more precise to state that they must be replicating in order to mutate. I've edited my comment to reflect this, Thanks :)

If RNA is damaged and changed and the virus particle is destroyed or for some reason never replicates, I don't count that as mutating, but then again what do I know.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#50

Post by achenatx » Wed, Sep 08, 2021, 5:21 PM UTC

bjtitus wrote: post #41

achenatx wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dumb people are going to want to go to covid parties to get infected naturally because it is better immunity.. Public health messages need to be kept simple. Natural immunity should be better because you are exposed to all the same proteins in the vaccine plus more and also possibly for a longer period of time and at a higher quantity. Now that you had delta, you should be immune to delta and partially immune to what…

> Natural immunity should be better because you are exposed to all the same proteins in the vaccine plus more This directly contradicts what immunologists seem to be finding as in the "Antibodies elicited by mRNA-1273 vaccination bind more broadly to the receptor binding domain than do those from SARS-CoV-2 infection" [1] study. Summarized by the director of the NIH [2]: > antibodies elicited by the mRNA vaccine were…

Early epidemiology is showing better immunity from natural infection.

A receptor binding domain is the place the on the virus that the virus uses to bind to cells.

However antibodies can bind to any part of the virus causing the virus particles to be attacked by the immune system. It is good to bind to the receptor binding domain, but it is good to bind to other parts of the virus too.

As the virus mutates, having antibodies that react to as much of the virus as possible is better than only having antibodies targeted towards the RBD