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Why the Electoral College Will Be Banished

dvorak.substack.com

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Re: Why the Electoral College Will Be Banished

#81
post #62
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This discussion was had when the original 13 colonies made a decision, for the second time, to unify under a single federal umbrella government. After the complete failure of the Articles of Confederation, a second initiative was created to desperately try to get the 13 states to subjugate themselves to a collective government. They all wanted the benefits of this shared collective, but had various gripes about joini…

This only holds if people still think they are a "Virginian" first and an "American" second. I've lived in several states, have close family in a dozen different states, and extended friends and family in almost every state. For me and many others, the state borders don't mean a whole lot, they're artificial lines drawn based on political maneuvering from 200 years ago.

You make a good point, but keep in mind that nothing will create a culture of distinctiveness from the Fed and group-cohesion within a state/region than imposition of rules that are popular nationally, but highly unpopular in said region.

As of now, the Federal government still treats cannabis like it's supremely harmful, with zero medical use, along with other DEA schedule 1 classified drugs. This is about to change, but since the 1990's, there have been locations in the US where a majority of the population reject this.

California was the first, and eventually in 2014 you had Colorado become the first state to wholesale legalize it, in spite of Federal law. Along with those movements, came a feeling of identity as a Californian first, an American second, that became particularly strong when the Feds raided businesses which complied with state, but not federal law. The people who really wanted legal weed increasingly viewed the Fed as an overreaching, far away tyrant. Imagine what it will be like in states that embrace low taxation if the Federal Govt is controlled for 3 consecutive decades by the party that represents city dwelling voters? Just like the reaction from Californians and Coloradans when the Feds raided citizens in their states for activities made legal at state level, it will help fuel anti-fed sentiment.

I think that's the risk we run today:

City residents are upset with what they correctly view as an intransigent, backwards system that gives too much power to small states and rural residents. They want to tilt this more in their favor, and correctly state the common sense "every vote should have equal weight" argument. The issue is that the construct that ties these states together always assumed that each state would have some form of pure democracy, and that the coalition of states would funnel each state's democratic desires into the Federal construct that was, by design, not democratic.

My view is that the majority of citizens, most of whom don't even care to know about US history at a remotely detailed level, and don't understand that the system they want will gradually erode the benefits of staying in for many states, and simultaneously raise the costs. Resentment grows, and next thing you know you have a secession movement.

Re: Why the Electoral College Will Be Banished

#82
post #23
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The beef about the electoral college is similar to the beef about the Senate filibuster -- terrible when it benefits the other guy. Modern marketing for political campaigns will adapt either way. It's pretty easy for campaigns to target demographics, and I'm sure that a GOP candidate could pull the right strings to get a plurality vote. Hispanics, for example, are the weak link in the Democratic tent, as are asians w…

> I'm sure that a GOP candidate could pull the right strings to get a plurality vote There was a bunch of hubub on the Right in the fall about a Democrat win leading to Democrats tilting the tables in all sorts of ways that would lead to a "permanent Democrat majority". I always came back to the same point as you, two-party politics will naturally self-balance at a pretty even split. At a city / state level, you migh…

It’s not all right people, it’s the more reactionary racist types, who inhabit the right wing media outlets.... end of the day, those folks don’t want certain people voting.

Re: Why the Electoral College Will Be Banished

#83
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's weird to divide the 300 million people that live in urban conditions and the 60 million people that live in rural conditions into 2 sides (that's using the statistical definition of urban that counts many small towns as urbanized areas, not the definition of urban that means super-dense megalopolis). And then Kansas actually has cities in it. Why does a resident of Kansas City (Kansas) get more national voting p…

In my mind one of the biggest negative effects of the Electoral College is that it doesn't just provide more/less national voting power, but in many cases effectively strips voters of any power over the Presidential election. Unless you live in a swing state, you generally know how the Presidential election will turn out in your state. So if you're in the minority in a non-swing state, you know going in that your vot…

This is why I've suggested a proportionate representation within the states (several states do this already). I do think the EC needs a lot of restructuring but I feel like most of the responses I'm getting are still reducing it to the dichotomy and applying positions to me that I don't hold. All I've stated is that the EC is broken so keeping it as is isn't a great solution and I don't think going to purely a popular vote is a good solution either. But there's a lot in between there and limiting ourselves to only those two solutions is a bit insane.

Re: Why the Electoral College Will Be Banished

#84
post #69

Why is the conversation always "abolish vs keep as is?" The EC seems like a good idea that brings equity to a diverse nation but needs some updating as things have changed dramatically since its creation. There are other possible changes that might help, like removing the winner take all situation. But just basing on popular vote alone creates the same problem we're in but from the other direction. We need cities but…

Because in this country there are dichotomies. There's my chotomy and the wrong chotomy. In times of stress people tend more to seek simple answers. I can only assume forcing false dichotomies on everything is a sign that people don't feel secure.

Interestingly I'm noting most of the replies to my comment are assuming I want to keep the EC as is. Which I'm not sure how to even respond to comments like that since my opening line states the opposite. That just I don't like the conventional alternative. But I guess this is the problem that we're talking about (and seems to becoming increasingly more common), that we're removing the nuance from problems and trying to apply overly simplified solutions. All that results is in continued problems and continued infighting. I'm not sure how to break the cycle when people on HN are forcing a position on me that I explicitly stated I did not hold.

Re: Why the Electoral College Will Be Banished

#85
post #29
post #14

Given that republicans have lost the popular vote in every election since 2000 I don't see them getting on board with going to a straight popular vote anytime in the near future to determine the Presidential election.

> Given that republicans have lost the popular vote in every election since 2000 They also just don't devote resources in heavily blue states for the Presidential race. Why work to gain votes in a race you will lose anyway? Particularly given that you can win without putting in that effort. Campaigns are optimized for the rules as they exist. Changing the rules changes the game. Just because the proposed rules look f…

Exactly.

"But I had more pieces left! Just because I was checkmated doesn't mean I should have lost."

Strategy is informed by the victory conditions.

Re: Why the Electoral College Will Be Banished

#86
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will always only be Democrats and Republicans, and because the system is a duopoly, when people get sick of one they will exercise their choice to revolve again to the other, round and round and round. Republicans are no more "finished" by Trump than Democrats were finished by Clinton. Dislodging the duopoly (that is, opening the electoral system to 3rd parties) will require proportional representation full sto…

> There will always only be Democrats and Republicans, and because the system is a duopoly, Maybe, but people probably thought that about Democratic-Republicans and Federalists, or Democrats and Whigs. The subsequent realignments have so far been more gradual adaptations within the existing major parties, but a radical and suddenly realignment destroying (and replacing, either immediately or in short order) one of th…

I don't think we disagree. Fair point about "Democrats" and "Republicans" not always helming the Duopoly, but I do maintain that FPTP + winner take all will always and inevitably lead to only 2 dominant parties, whatever they're called.

If you disagree with that last point, I sincerely hope you're right, but one need only cite the weight of history and Duverger's law to support it.

Re: Why the Electoral College Will Be Banished

#87
Here's what I don't understand - this is is constantly framed as a matter of reforming Federal law, when the states could remedy this themselves by changing from a winner-gets-all paradigm to a Maine- or Nebraska-like system that allocates delegates proportionally.

The proximate reason why they don't do this, I would imagine, is that in the short term a party-controlled state wouldn't want a bunch of its Presidential vote delegates to go to the other party; e.g., California Democrats, who currently have the political power to change how their state awards delegates, don't want dozens of delegates going to the GOP and vice versa for Texas Republicans not wanting a bunch of Texas delegates going to the Democrats.

On the other hand, states like Ohio and Florida want to keep the influence they have as swing states -- they want presidential candidates to spend an insanely disproportionate amount of time campaigning there and making promises about future policy decisions that disproportionately affect local industries. If they awarded delegates proportionally, they'd lose the attention they enjoy every four years.

I'm not sure what the way to break the equilibrium would be, but do think that the solution to this is action on the state level rather than Federal. Am I missing anything?

Re: Why the Electoral College Will Be Banished

#88
post #43

The elephant in the room is voter fraud. If we switch to raw vote count then it takes just one loosely regulated precinct to flood the election with fraudulent votes to win the election, and anyone can do this. Sure, this time around one group may win the fraud vote, but next time it will be another group, and the the best fraudsters will conspire to run the country and we will cease to be a democracy and become a kl…

It seems like it’d be a lot harder to swing a National popular vote election fraudulently, where you’d need to register millions of fraudulent votes, than an electoral college vote where at times you’d only need a few thousand? Or even just a couple high-pressure phone calls...

That's a good point. There would be fewer votes required. My thinking is when spread across more distinct political regions a greater amount of collusion is required across a more diverse political body, even if the raw vote count is smaller. In my mind this seems harder to pull off, but I can see where you are coming from.

Re: Why the Electoral College Will Be Banished

#89
post #78
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not the land voting, but political municipalities which are tied by common culture and people. I think it makes sense to try and give smaller municipalities equal footing with larger municipalities. E.g. in the global scheme we think it is a bad thing when super powers stomp all over the little guy. Same thinking applies internally. Each state is sort of like a mini country. In general our country seems to try…

Part of my point is that states, and often congressional districts, do not really represent a "common culture and people" in a lot of cases. NY for example is a Blue state, but is Red by area. Those same boundaries can also introduce arbitrary borders that divide people with a common culture and life experience. The problem with the Electoral College is that it's just become a set of meaningless rules and lines that…

Let's take your NY example. What do you think is the fairest way to represent the people in the state? The current setup, or something else?

Re: Why the Electoral College Will Be Banished

#90
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my mind one of the biggest negative effects of the Electoral College is that it doesn't just provide more/less national voting power, but in many cases effectively strips voters of any power over the Presidential election. Unless you live in a swing state, you generally know how the Presidential election will turn out in your state. So if you're in the minority in a non-swing state, you know going in that your vot…

This is why I've suggested a proportionate representation within the states (several states do this already). I do think the EC needs a lot of restructuring but I feel like most of the responses I'm getting are still reducing it to the dichotomy and applying positions to me that I don't hold. All I've stated is that the EC is broken so keeping it as is isn't a great solution and I don't think going to purely a popula…

I did not intend to imply anything in regard to your positions, my intention was only to argue my interpretation of, and issues with, the current system and discuss why I think alternatives are better. Apologies if any of my posts came off as a personal attack.

I am in full agreement that proportionate representation (e.g. Maine and Nebraska) is a step in the right direction, but my personal feeling is that the presidential election should be the one place that every citizen's voice and vote should be equal. I can't imagine another situation where that should/could be the case and I think it's important to have that one place where every voice in the country can be equally involved and every vote equally weighted.

The short version of why I don't think any vote-per-district approach makes sense for the presidential election is that it will always reduce the election down to the "swing" districts that actually decide the outcome and get the most attention from the candidates. It can come down to very few votes, and a candidate pandering to the more extreme fractions can flip those sometimes-tiny margins.

I'm left-of-center in a very Blue state, but it bothers me that more conservative voices in my state have no impact on federal elections. They can't swing the state for the presidential election or congressional representatives, so they are provided little voice on the national stage. I think giving more influence to right-leaning voices from left-leaning areas, and visa-versa, could help bring the whole nation much more into balance and away from extremism.

You can try to minimize the issues I'm describing, but I think they're inherent to any vote-per-district approach such as the Electoral College. So I am seeing the two options as vote-per-district, and popular vote. Are there other solutions you're considering that I'm not seeing here?

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