Earlier quoted context omitted.
This actually isn’t entirely true. You’re operating under the “energy in-energy out” theory of weight loss, but human regulation of body fat is more complicated than that. Specifically, we store energy in adipose tissue in the form of body fat after a meal (think of it like storing data on disk) and then when we are low on energy we burn that fat (load that data “in-memory”). However, a lot regulates when we burn fat…
> You’re operating under the “energy in-energy out” theory of weight loss, but human regulation of body fat is more complicated than that. I hear the "energy in-energy out" being dismissed like this often, and while I do agree with you that our bodies are more complex than that, I want to say that in practice this adage more or less just works, indeed to the degree that it's valuable to have in common knowledge to in…
Add extra activity, and the natural effect will be an increased appetite that'll nudge you to eat more calories - and it's not a given the effect of that extra activity will be a calorie deficit, the increase in appetite can easily be more than what you spent in those exercises.
If you try to reduce caloric intake, that's a very different beast than actually reducing caloric intake - if you try to reduce caloric intake by skipping carbs at lunch, it can result in reduced activity (so less calories out) and a strong nudge to "cheat" at other meals or snacks; and again it's plausible to get to a situation where the unintended compensation is larger (and opposite) than the behavior modification that you made.
That is the problem with the "energy in-energy out" model - one does not simply change the 'energy in' or 'energy out' part and expect that other things will stay constant either magically or through sheer willpower.