Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups • Hacker News Board

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#81

Post by mattnewport » Sat, Feb 23, 2019, 6:09 AM UTC

dbish wrote: post #28

jameslk wrote: post #10

I see a bright future for products and services focused on remote team management

I agree, but quite a few people get lonely working remotely and not having a proper office to go into, and software won't solve that (at least not until VR presence or something of the sort is really good). I've managed great engineers who have complained about this and I haven't seen a good solution.

Quite a few people hate working in traditional office environments too but remote only options are still relatively rare. There's room for both approaches and probably some hybrids too. For now it still seems to me that the demand for remote work from people who prefer it outstrips the supply of good remote friendly positions.

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#82

Post by StephenAmar » Sat, Feb 23, 2019, 6:11 AM UTC

temp1928384 wrote: post #23

xemdetia wrote: post #11

I wish he shared more reasoning in why he decided in 2017 being the pivotal year. I mostly agree with 2017 being a bad year for the bay area startup as that was the period where a lot of the top startups like airbnb, uber, and theranos were getting significant negative outlooks, and probably some others that I have forgotten about.

I think it basically became the year when the "norm" for talent in SF Bay Area was 1) work at a FAANG or 2) work at a late stage private co (like Uber). Working at an early stage startup was already risky, but the opportunity cost sort of peaked around then and remains high. Unless the opportunity cost noticeably drops (i.e. a massive recession that causes a 50%+ drop in public stock market) I think smaller startups…

I completely agree Right now, it is simply not worth it to work for smaller companies.

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#83

Post by ummonk » Sat, Feb 23, 2019, 6:23 AM UTC

yesimahuman wrote: post #50

pm90 wrote: post #45

I think it’s important for anyone getting to this page to read his whole thread, which is more nuanced than suggested by the sensational title. The point he seems to be making is that it’s better for startups that aren’t looking at being unicorns to look at other locations where they might have a better chance of success.

He sort of shows the bay area bias with the bit about how “$100M” startups will be created elsewhere. There have been some much larger startups outside of the Bay Area and I suspect that trend to continue. Unicorns aren’t just a bay area phenomenon anymore

The Bay Area has less than 1/30th the US population and yet the majority of US unicorns and decacorns have hailed from here. It's wildly disproportionate.

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#84

Post by ummonk » Sat, Feb 23, 2019, 6:24 AM UTC

zavi wrote: post #51

pm90 wrote: post #45

I think it’s important for anyone getting to this page to read his whole thread, which is more nuanced than suggested by the sensational title. The point he seems to be making is that it’s better for startups that aren’t looking at being unicorns to look at other locations where they might have a better chance of success.

What's the point of being a startup not looking at being a unicorn? I genuinely do not understand how somebody can cap off their ambitions like so.

Sometimes building a solid successful business is preferable to playing the lottery and shooting for the moon.

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#85

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Feb 23, 2019, 6:25 AM UTC

axaxs wrote: post #27

I see that myself. And I mean this as absolutely no offense to anyone in the area. I've met incredibly intelligent people there, among the best. Though, I believe the very best are distributed throughout the world, and command the ability not to move. All that said, first, well, the silicon part is all but gone. I find the signal to noise ratio pretty low. For every 10x developer, there are 50 people who did a bootca…

[deleted]

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#86

Post by newman8r » Sat, Feb 23, 2019, 6:27 AM UTC

jaggederest wrote: post #75

newman8r wrote: post #15

I've been interested in the idea of semi-off-grid live/work communities for remote workers and startups. It's inexpensive and not a bad lifestyle.

I've been working on the logistics of this and it's pretty tough. If everyone at your "semi off grid" live/work community works in tech, you have plenty of money but little free time, and end up bringing in most of the maintenance of the environment, which is expensive and alienating. It's much the same kind of way that it's unaffordable to live in SF if you're a janitor. If you have some residents working in tech an…

I'd probably go the opposite direction of East Wind: not require people to buy into a philosophy or make any community commitments. My biggest goal would be to use group buying power to buy good land and put in a sizeable well, some very minimal facilities (shower/ restrooms/septic), etc. Maybe a few RV pads.

I've actually got some land in the desert and spent some time working out of a camper. If anyone's ever interested in chatting about future plans, I'm always down to collaborate. Kind of a long term thing that's always on my mind.

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#87

Post by ummonk » Sat, Feb 23, 2019, 6:29 AM UTC

temp1928384 wrote: post #23

xemdetia wrote: post #11

I wish he shared more reasoning in why he decided in 2017 being the pivotal year. I mostly agree with 2017 being a bad year for the bay area startup as that was the period where a lot of the top startups like airbnb, uber, and theranos were getting significant negative outlooks, and probably some others that I have forgotten about.

I think it basically became the year when the "norm" for talent in SF Bay Area was 1) work at a FAANG or 2) work at a late stage private co (like Uber). Working at an early stage startup was already risky, but the opportunity cost sort of peaked around then and remains high. Unless the opportunity cost noticeably drops (i.e. a massive recession that causes a 50%+ drop in public stock market) I think smaller startups…

Larger companies have an inherent sales and marketing advantage due to brand size. If 20 engineers at a small startup develop a product and 20 engineers at some big co develop a similar product the latter will generally outsell the former. The big can consequently also pay its engineers more since it is able to make more money from the fruits of their labor.

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#88

Post by debaserab2 » Sat, Feb 23, 2019, 6:29 AM UTC

zavi wrote: post #51

pm90 wrote: post #45

I think it’s important for anyone getting to this page to read his whole thread, which is more nuanced than suggested by the sensational title. The point he seems to be making is that it’s better for startups that aren’t looking at being unicorns to look at other locations where they might have a better chance of success.

What's the point of being a startup not looking at being a unicorn? I genuinely do not understand how somebody can cap off their ambitions like so.

Because not everything is dollars and cents in the end to everyone?

Some people value the autonomy a small business gives you along with the work life balance.

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#89

Post by neonate » Sat, Feb 23, 2019, 6:29 AM UTC

vincentmarle wrote: post #79

> I still expect a significant % of the $10B+ startups will get created here, so it makes sense for investors to still focus here. But I bet a lot of the ~$100M startups will happen elsewhere. > There are still some things—e.g great startup executive talent, particular kinds of engineering talent—that are much harder to find outside the bay area. This is spot on and it becomes a real bottle neck if you want to scale…

> by dealing with all kinds of things that shouldn’t matter.

Can you give some examples?

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#90

Post by neonate » Sat, Feb 23, 2019, 6:33 AM UTC

cbHXBY1D wrote: post #72

Sam just realizing this in 2019 is a testament to how insulated the millionaire VC class is from the everyday struggles of the of the middle and lower classes. This is something everyone in my circles have been talking about for 5+ years, it's not a particularly novel take in 2019.

He's talking specifically about startups.