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BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

reuters.com

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Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#81

Post by syncsynchalt »

sschueller wrote: post #18
marcell wrote: post #12

For all the crap Tesla gets, this shows why they are so necessary. Switching to electric car production is a huge disruption for the existing auto industry. It basically eliminates the dealer service revenue, and turns the supply chain upside down. I doubt they would be making any effort in electric cars if the threat of Tesla did not exist. Even as it is, they are dragging their feet.

Why would it need to destroy the dealer network and the right to repair your own car? Only because Tesla runs their business like a software house doesn't mean the others need to follow suit. The German car makers also make gas powered vehicles versions of some of their fleet which are quite different from gasoline cars. What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable elec…

Electric cars have an order of magnitude fewer parts than an ICE car. This ripples all through an established automaker's revenue and production models, from service contracts, supplier partnerships and agreements, dealer networks, warehousing and fulfillment, and so on. There is probably a lot for an established automaker to untangle, some of which they'll be sued for if they try to follow Tesla's route.

With that said I don't think it's the reason BMW is not ready to mass produce electric, and I take them at their word in the article. If you're going to break into the electric market it's going to take a lot of money to shoulder past the three marques that got there first (Tesla, Nissan, Toyota).

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#82

Post by mulmen »

detaro wrote: post #78
mulmen wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm thinking of starting a blog about RC planes, but I'm going to outsource the development. I submitted a bid to IBM but they haven't replied! On top of that Boeing said they're not interested in assembling my plane! Clearly these incumbents are holding me back. /s Sarcasm aside maybe it just wasn't worth it to VW to take on a relatively small project outside of their core competency?

If making delivery vans for one of the biggest users of delivery vehicles in Germany (that uses tons of VW vans currently) is "a small project outside their core competency", VW really is in trouble.

Does VW already know how to make electric vehicles? How many would they sell relative to their total sales of existing ICE vans? Is it worth starting up an entire new business for one customer?

I think this can be explained by VW just deciding its not worth it rather than saying VW is trying to suppress electric vehicle development.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#83

Post by toomuchtodo »

maxerickson wrote: post #47
toomuchtodo wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GM would only lease them, not let you purchase. When they repossessed them at the end of the lease, they would not let you purchase them; they then proceeded to crush any that were not sent to museums. http://electrifyingtimes.com/ev1_crushed.html http://electrifyingtimes.com/ev1crush.html

Yes, I understand. My question is, what if GM had offered them for sale for $250,000 (I'm making up an obscene number) because they estimated that their service obligations would cost that much? How well would that have gone over with the enthusiasts?

It's a fair point.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#84

Post by tsomctl »

vesrah wrote: post #80
mulmen wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My experience with BMW dealerships is that they are borderline criminal organizations. I have never taken my car in for a repair without them breaking something else. I was quoted $15,000.00 for a new head because they failed to gap a spark plug. They remove the access panel in the aero pan when doing oil changes and don't replace it. They over torque everything (drain plug, filter cover, etc). They broke a wiring ha…

What modern BMW uses plugs that aren't pregapped?

Used spark plugs are going to have a bigger gap.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#85

Post by breser »

sweden wrote: post #69
lumberjack wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Way I see it Tesla proves that a mass market EV is still not possible. Either you take it from the fact that they failed to come up with anything revolutionary in terms of the Model 3; price/range still on par with other offerings. Or you take their lowest cost estimates for their battery packs and then you try to build the rest of the car with the remaining $12k (for the total price of a people's car that everyone c…

I have to disagree, most of the current electric car offerings on the market are more expensive than the base price of the Model 3 (looking at the BMW i3 in Europe, the base price is 45000 dollars). Tesla is a company that was built from the ground up, without any prior design and manufacturing experience, and they have been mass producing cars for only 5 or 6 years. You can't simply expect them to have the same busi…

No the base price is $35,000. They simply haven't started letting anyone buy the $35,000 versions yet. You can say this is a failure on the part of Tesla. But this is not the first time they've had a lower end model that was planned but not immediately available upon production. Case in point when the All Wheel Drive Model S was announced, they didn't make non-performance versions available for several months after.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#86

Post by weinzierl »

sschueller wrote: post #6
vinhboy wrote: post #2

This has been said many times, but it feels like all the manufacturers colluded to make EV cars extremely ugly and undesirable. Prime example being the BMW i3. Of all the nice looking cars they have in their line up, one has to wonder why they went with an i3. Put that same capability in a 3-series and it would have been a different story.

I don't think the i3 is ugly and I wouldn't mind having one if I could aford it.

What puts me off are the narrow wheels. I know they are necessary but they give the car an almost comical look.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#87

Post by jpm_sd »

Brakenshire wrote: post #66
rwbt wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure if you know how innovative the BMW i3 is. They decided to go for an entirely different manufacturing process using Carbon Fibre instead of traditional steel stamping and it's entire supply chain is built on renewable energy. That's a big commitment on BMWs part. Alas, the market didn't think of it the same way. The i3 might not be a looker but it's probably one of the most innovative cars ever produced i…

> Alas, the market didn't think of it the same way. The i3 might not be a looker ...from an American perspective. The i3 doesn't sell much in the US, but is I think the second highest selling EV in Europe at the moment, people here apparently don't have any problem with the way it looks.

It's also super comfortable inside, compared to the Leaf or the Bolt.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#88

Post by d1zzy »

kazen44 wrote: post #50
gambiting wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, especially since those companies really don't start with "we'll build a line that can assemble 100 cars a week and then work from there" like Tesla did - it's either a line that can assemble 10k cars/week, or nothing. And if the supply for whatever component isn't there yet to support that capacity, then it's not going to happen.

This is usually the case. Retooling an assembly line is a ton of work, and NOT producing at scale is impossible for modern, highly automated car factories like VW, Mercedes or BMW own. Producing 100 cars is simply not possible in these factories, because it would mean massive losses to the factory owner. Also, car manufacturers do not want one supplier for a part, they want several. Mostly as a backup and also to mak…

Do we have some data on how thin the margin is for entry level subcompact cars? I was always under the impression that cars are sold at the "market price", regardless of production costs which usually meant at much higher price than production costs.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#89

Post by jpm_sd »

rwbt wrote: post #40
vinhboy wrote: post #2

This has been said many times, but it feels like all the manufacturers colluded to make EV cars extremely ugly and undesirable. Prime example being the BMW i3. Of all the nice looking cars they have in their line up, one has to wonder why they went with an i3. Put that same capability in a 3-series and it would have been a different story.

I'm not sure if you know how innovative the BMW i3 is. They decided to go for an entirely different manufacturing process using Carbon Fibre instead of traditional steel stamping and it's entire supply chain is built on renewable energy. That's a big commitment on BMWs part. Alas, the market didn't think of it the same way. The i3 might not be a looker but it's probably one of the most innovative cars ever produced i…

They have also released AMAZING videos showing the entire production process. If you are at all interesting in manufacturing, they're worth watching. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gt1k3BLN7pw

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#90

Post by Robotbeat »

mulmen wrote: post #56
sillypuddy wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could be that electric cars just require less maintenance.

That's not been my (limited) experience with Tesla. They build all the components in the car. Things like electric seats and door actuators seem to fail frequently. A Tesla still has a lot of parts to go wrong, even if the drive train is simpler and more robust. Most new ICE cars don't have massive power train problems either. The reliability issues are in auxiliary systems.

But the person you're replying to said "electric cars" not "Teslas."

The non-powertrain components are irrelevant for this comparison.

As far as ICE powertrains being fairly reliable, that is a triumph of engineering and due to literally trillions of dollars of investments. And yet regular maintenance on the powertrain is required even today, whereas electric powertrains do not have such requirements.

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