Your comments about SAML are valid, but we're not implementing _all of SAML_. We're implementing the tiny subset that we can do safely once that you're actually going to use, once. This sidesteps some of the issues you're referring to. (Also: while I agree dsig is horrendous, I don't think that stops implementors: there's like 2-3 truly unique implementations, mostly libxmlsec1. People regularly write their own JWT but not dsig.)
If you reduce the scope from every-document-with-the-letters-SAML-on-it to just-the-SAML-you-need, I think the coinflip becomes much more obvious. OIDC is pretty hairy too, for example:
A) You may or may not get cryptographic binding. You can't tell from an intercepted interaction what security properties that interaction really has. For example: my understanding is that Google's OIDC implementation will bind to a specific client cred, so a leaked token sans leaked client cred isn't a big deal -- but that's something Google's implementation did, not something OIDC guarantees you, and it's not evident from the protcol flow. Do you have to validate that ID token signature? Turns out: no, because in practice everyone just does another leg and relies on TLS cert validation anyway, so this entire JWT dance was pointless. [0] This is one of my pet peeve regressions from OAuth1.0a to OAuth2.
B) Quick: what's the difference between state and nonce? Which one do I use and why? Empirically (but somewhat anecdotally) implementers don't understand this. (I know _why_ it happened, I just don't think it should've.)
... and of course C) JWT bugs in homegrown impls: very real.
You can sort-of reduce OIDC but you still end up with at least 3 distinct flows and then you might have a JWT'd ID token (so you may or may not have to do a third leg of extra work to actually get an identity assertion). OIDC is a meandering tree of options which does not fit in my head. TinySAML fits in my head. There's one obvious general flow and one tiny validation path. The only property you're not technically guaranteed is (cryptographic) audience restriction, but the IdP UX is in a unique position to de facto guarantee that (everyone gets their own key pair).
When you add to that SAML's crushing market penetration, I think it is the right call.
Finally, just to end with a slightly cheeky joke (please don't interpret this as the crux of my argument, I get that this is apples-to-oranges):
> cat **.go | wc -l
17060
> curl -s "https://openid.net/specs/openid-connect-core-1_0.html" | pandoc -t markdown | wc -l
12897
Keep in mind that the OIDC Core spec says things like "validate per OAuth2 RFC", so the real spec is much larger, but there's also a lot of HTML markdown that pandoc doesn't compress well.
[0]: https://developers.google.com/identity/protocols/OpenIDConne...