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Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

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Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#81

Post by joosters »

watoc wrote: post #33

I don't totally understand why the bookmakers would limit their accounts. The bookmaker wants to balance his book for each game to make sure he makes a profit no matter what the outcome is. To balance their books they might give better odds for an outcome than what a statistical model might suggest. But what difference does it make if the bettor who helps them balance their books is a consistent winner or not? Do the…

It’s really simple: For a bookie, if a customer is winning money, then you are losing money. Doesn’t matter if they are helping balance your books or not. So why take their bets?

Likewise, bookmakers will happily take bets from guessers all day long. If they are lucky enough to get a ‘whale’ placing huge (but dumb) bets, they can easily lay off those bets elsewhere to manage their risk. They don’t need skilful gamblers to help balance their books.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#82

Post by joosters »

johnvonneumann wrote: post #80
downandout wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that they limit the accounts of successful bettors doesn't mean that it is "rigged". It simply means that they reserve the right to do business with whom they choose.

Limiting those who stand a chance of pulling off the type of big wins they advertise heavily on television is rigging the market. It's manipulation, pure and simple. What they're selling is a bullshit dream that if you ever come close to they will bar you. This type of activity is the definition of predatory. It's straight up rigging.

It’s not rigging. If you place a bet and it wins, they will pay you. It would only be rigged if a bookmaker decided whether or not to take your bet after the event.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#83

Post by watoc »

dmurray wrote: post #74
watoc wrote: post #33

I don't totally understand why the bookmakers would limit their accounts. The bookmaker wants to balance his book for each game to make sure he makes a profit no matter what the outcome is. To balance their books they might give better odds for an outcome than what a statistical model might suggest. But what difference does it make if the bettor who helps them balance their books is a consistent winner or not? Do the…

> The bookmaker wants to balance his book for each game to make sure he makes a profit no matter what the outcome is. This part is not really true. Bookies will very often have an unbalanced book and will be happy to keep taking action on the side that increases their exposure, if the price is right.

That's fine.

Although the strategy works here because the bookie moves the line to make it more attractive to bet on it. If he does not care about balancing the book, why move the line? He could just keep increasing his exposure

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#84

Post by webkike »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #8

"Send enquires about this paper to our newly acquired private island in the Bahamas." :-) One of the most depressing things I realized when I learned to count cards, and confer upon myself a small but meaningful advantage in the game of Blackjack, was that the casinos simply ask you to leave if you win too much. That put an upper limit on the rate at which one could win. The folks who figure out slot machines have a…

That's why I like group gambling games like poker. The casino wins from transaction fees, and players are competing against each other.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#85

Post by hudibras »

watoc wrote: post #33

I don't totally understand why the bookmakers would limit their accounts. The bookmaker wants to balance his book for each game to make sure he makes a profit no matter what the outcome is. To balance their books they might give better odds for an outcome than what a statistical model might suggest. But what difference does it make if the bettor who helps them balance their books is a consistent winner or not? Do the…

Don't try to overthink it: imagine the bookies having a dashboard that shows everybody's win rate (or alternatively, how much the bookie is losing) and then they ban or limit the top performers.

Instant and legal profit for them.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#86

Post by SubiculumCode »

au_gambler wrote: post #52
razwall wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it harder to win?

In paramutuel betting the prices are not fixed, so you cannot leverage differences between the odds on offer and your estimate of the prospect's chances. The final odds you receive are equal to the total stakes placed on that prospect divided by (sum of all stakes less the operator's take). You can't formulate an optimal staking plan with unknown odds, and you're forced to compete on win rates rather than price ineff…

I don't think your reasoning is correct.

A bookmaker setting the odds presumably would hire the most accurate handicapper analytics team to set the odds appropriately, then take their cut. In paramutual betting, you need only be better than the average bet..and there are a lot of stupid betters. You know the odds pretty well by posttime.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#87

Post by throwaway2048 »

nasredin wrote: post #47
CPLX wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I my experience as a card counter they'd just swap in a new dealer who would count themselves and just shuffle whenever the count got really good. Ridiculously unfair and probably illegal but what are you going to do, complain?

And when the dealer messes up the count you can have one hell of an exit! Very loudly: "Aha! You should have shuffled the cards! Messed up the count didn't you!" Sunglasses on and just walk away.

card counting is about a few percentage points advantage wrung out over hundreds of hands, you would never get a jackpot moment like that if you are doing it correctly.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#88

Post by scott_karana »

stephengillie wrote: post #39
ChuckMcM wrote: post #8

"Send enquires about this paper to our newly acquired private island in the Bahamas." :-) One of the most depressing things I realized when I learned to count cards, and confer upon myself a small but meaningful advantage in the game of Blackjack, was that the casinos simply ask you to leave if you win too much. That put an upper limit on the rate at which one could win. The folks who figure out slot machines have a…

If the games weren't set for The House to make money, it would be a charity instead of a business.

I don't think your reasoning is correct.

The entire lure of gambling is that some players can make money. The house always plays that up.

But if the house always wins, that hope they're selling disappears.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#89

Post by gaadd33 »

deusofnull wrote: post #58
nasredin wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably more polite than when organized crime was involved in Las Vegas casinos. There's card-counting software called Casino Verites (IIRC).

the situation is certainly more polite these days, but is organized crime really not involved anymore?

Most of the casinos are publicly traded, so for them to be involved someone would have to be lying on the financial statements submitted to the SEC. SOX would make that illegal at best and I believe reward anyone who blew the whistle on it with a substantial reward.

So if they are involved it would be more likely related to contracted services and such where you could pad the actual cost by a large amount and no one is going to look too closely.

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