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Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

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Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#41

Post by iopq »

downandout wrote: post #16
ChuckMcM wrote: post #8

"Send enquires about this paper to our newly acquired private island in the Bahamas." :-) One of the most depressing things I realized when I learned to count cards, and confer upon myself a small but meaningful advantage in the game of Blackjack, was that the casinos simply ask you to leave if you win too much. That put an upper limit on the rate at which one could win. The folks who figure out slot machines have a…

the casinos simply ask you to leave if you win too much. I was actually backed off from the first place I went to after I learned how to count cards while I was losing . If the pit boss or dealers know how to count themselves and identify you as a counter, they want no part of it. In most cases, they'll either "flat bet" you (tell you that your initial bet is your maximum), or they'll tell you that you cannot play bl…

That's only if you vary your bet size. That's a definite tell.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#42

Post by seanalltogether »

GigabyteCoin wrote: post #11
ChuckMcM wrote: post #8

"Send enquires about this paper to our newly acquired private island in the Bahamas." :-) One of the most depressing things I realized when I learned to count cards, and confer upon myself a small but meaningful advantage in the game of Blackjack, was that the casinos simply ask you to leave if you win too much. That put an upper limit on the rate at which one could win. The folks who figure out slot machines have a…

I used to use the betfair platform until it they blocked themselves from being viewed in Canada for some strange reason right after they were purchased by ladbrokes I believe it was. Anyways, after playing with them for a few years, I was horrified to learn about their 60% tax on consistent winners that they have dubbed a "premium charge". Found some sort of edge to exploit and reap profits? Betfair doesn't even care…

I'm confused, since betfair is an exchange aren't they just taking a cut of the action? Why would they add a heavy tax onto profits which would just drive heavy bettors away?

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#43

Post by nasredin »

downandout wrote: post #16
ChuckMcM wrote: post #8

"Send enquires about this paper to our newly acquired private island in the Bahamas." :-) One of the most depressing things I realized when I learned to count cards, and confer upon myself a small but meaningful advantage in the game of Blackjack, was that the casinos simply ask you to leave if you win too much. That put an upper limit on the rate at which one could win. The folks who figure out slot machines have a…

the casinos simply ask you to leave if you win too much. I was actually backed off from the first place I went to after I learned how to count cards while I was losing . If the pit boss or dealers know how to count themselves and identify you as a counter, they want no part of it. In most cases, they'll either "flat bet" you (tell you that your initial bet is your maximum), or they'll tell you that you cannot play bl…

Probably more polite than when organized crime was involved in Las Vegas casinos.

There's card-counting software called Casino Verites (IIRC).

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#44

Post by agilebyte »

conistonwater wrote: post #23

> A few weeks after we started trading with actual money some bookmakers began to severely limit our accounts, forcing us to stop our betting strategy. Isn't this like literally one of the oldest tricks in the book? I remember reading Reminiscences of a Stock Operator , which talks in part about early 1900's bucket shops, and the same stuff was there even then. Similar stuff is also mentioned in market microstructure…

Same here. If you have a strategy that wins you money overall, bookmakers either send you a nice email saying your account is closed as they do not welcome professional players or they just severely limit your stakes (think $20 a bet).

(Will Hill, Interwetten, Betway are exactly the type of bookies that will close your account as soon as they catch on)

Yes, the odds can be exploited and there is a whole bunch of services offering picks, but eventually the sportsbooks catch on and close your account. The sportsbooks that welcome professional players are few and far between and their odds are on point.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#45

Post by iopq »

watoc wrote: post #33

I don't totally understand why the bookmakers would limit their accounts. The bookmaker wants to balance his book for each game to make sure he makes a profit no matter what the outcome is. To balance their books they might give better odds for an outcome than what a statistical model might suggest. But what difference does it make if the bettor who helps them balance their books is a consistent winner or not? Do the…

Because people who bet sharply on lines reduce the long term profitability of the bookies. While they reduce the variance, they take directly from the profits.

Defeats the point of being a bookie when better bettors imbalance the book in one direction and win.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#46

Post by kirykl »

dogruck wrote: post #34
skizm wrote: post #29

I always thought bookies just kept moving the lines until they were making money at the snap of the ball. Their initial line isn't as important as adjusting the line so that there is equal money on both sides of the line and therefore the bookie is guaranteed money due to the small fee they build into the bets. Their profits don't depend on accurately predicting the game's score, just moving the line strategically as…

Easier said than done. Suppose your book is balanced, and you have $25,000 on each side. Then a new bet comes in, size $250,000, on one side of your book -- what to do? Or, more simply, when you set your initial line, what do you do when a known sharp immediately wants action on one side?

Don’t honor the bet until you can balance it or limit it to an amount you can balance ?

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#47

Post by nasredin »

CPLX wrote: post #30
ChuckMcM wrote: post #8

"Send enquires about this paper to our newly acquired private island in the Bahamas." :-) One of the most depressing things I realized when I learned to count cards, and confer upon myself a small but meaningful advantage in the game of Blackjack, was that the casinos simply ask you to leave if you win too much. That put an upper limit on the rate at which one could win. The folks who figure out slot machines have a…

I my experience as a card counter they'd just swap in a new dealer who would count themselves and just shuffle whenever the count got really good. Ridiculously unfair and probably illegal but what are you going to do, complain?

And when the dealer messes up the count you can have one hell of an exit!

Very loudly:

"Aha! You should have shuffled the cards! Messed up the count didn't you!"

Sunglasses on and just walk away.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#48

Post by razwall »

dogruck wrote: post #37
SubiculumCode wrote: post #18

I don't see why we cannot have completely distributed betting platform using para-mutual betting strategy that collects and distributes bets and winnings on the basis of publicly reported sports results with no take-out. I prefer para-mutual rather than a house deciding the odds. It is a more free-market approach. It has been used in horse racing, but the takeout has been too large which makes it hard to be profitabl…

Yes -- customers don't like it because it's too hard to win. Said another way, customers will choose to place bets with market makers, instead of some paramutual operation.

Why is it harder to win?

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#49

Post by watoc »

s17n wrote: post #38
watoc wrote: post #33

I don't totally understand why the bookmakers would limit their accounts. The bookmaker wants to balance his book for each game to make sure he makes a profit no matter what the outcome is. To balance their books they might give better odds for an outcome than what a statistical model might suggest. But what difference does it make if the bettor who helps them balance their books is a consistent winner or not? Do the…

Probably the bookmakers are actually OK with the betting activity that is described in the paper, but they have limits on successful accounts as a safety mechanism to prevent themselves from losing too much money in the event that somebody comes up with an unforeseen method of winning lots of money.

Makes sense.

But then they are depriving themselves of liquidity provided by these professional gamblers. They might have to increase the odds even more so that an average joe will bet on an unpopular team where as the professional bettor would have taken it at a lower price recognizing the statistical edge.

The aim of the bookie is to have a guaranteed profit on each and every game. Whereas the professional gambler tries to make a guaranteed profit over multiple games. Seems to me that they can benefit each other rather than be against each other.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#50

Post by nasredin »

utnick wrote: post #15
mason55 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess is that it’s the manner by which they were winning. Thirty $50 bets per week over five months is over 500 bets. That’s not the long run but winning at an 8.5% ROI over that many bets is probably enough for the house to realize they’re somehow a winning player even if the stakes aren’t huge.

Sportsbooks in general don't mind winning players though, especially big ones. They make money off the vig and move odds to get equal money on each side of the bet so that they'll make money either way.

The "vig" comes from "vygrysh" which is "winnings" in Russian (IIRC).
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