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Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

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Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#81

Post by Brakenshire »

crdoconnor wrote: post #59
Brakenshire wrote: post #22

People are critical of the flagrant dishonesty of the Leave campaign, the way that all concerns were dismissed with the 'Project Fear' or 'the British public has had enough of experts' thought terminating cliches, and now the refusal to admit that the public have been lied to, and the new tendency to blame Remain voters and the EU for 'talking down the economy', or for requiring now what everyone knew would be the ca…

>People are critical of the flagrant dishonesty of the Leave campaign It's not like the remain campaign was much more honest, and the level of scaremongering was absurd. Beyond the pale is the number of complaints that the sky has, in fact, fallen in because the FTSE has plunged and the pound has dropped. As if people from Sunderland or rural Wales were concerned about the cost of holidaying the Riviera or taking a h…

WTO rules would be completely disastrous. WTO only deals with goods, and the UK is overwhelmingly a service economy, and even in goods you have significant tariffs (10% on cars for instance, which is a major UK industry). Projections I read in the FT for a return to WTO trading are for a 3-7% fall in GDP, which is not far off the scale of the 2008 recession. Thank god it won't be nearly as bad as that. I'd actually say comparing to WTO was an element of the genuine scaremongering of the remain campaign, because almost certainly there will be some bilateral deals done regardless, to protect existing supply chains integrated into European companies.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#82

Post by crdoconnor »

nikcub wrote: post #74
crdoconnor wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>People are critical of the flagrant dishonesty of the Leave campaign It's not like the remain campaign was much more honest, and the level of scaremongering was absurd. Beyond the pale is the number of complaints that the sky has, in fact, fallen in because the FTSE has plunged and the pound has dropped. As if people from Sunderland or rural Wales were concerned about the cost of holidaying the Riviera or taking a h…

> As if people from Sunderland or rural Wales were concerned about the cost of holidaying the Riviera or taking a hit on their non-existent stock portfolios. Economic downturns and recessions disproportionately affect the poor[0] and disadvantaged[1]. [0] http://www.russellsage.org/research/special-initiatives/grea... [1] https://www.aclu.org/sites/default/files/field_document/disc...

A) The parts of England that voted to exit were already in recession and nobody noticed.

B) Actually they'll stand to do better because:

* There will be less competition for jobs, meaning a rise in wages.

* Westminster is more likely to direct funding their way in order to avoid another repeat of Thursday.

* The low pound will be good for export industries.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#83

Post by awjr »

scholia wrote: post #79
awjr wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although I voted remain, I almost voted leave. There are good, very good reasons to leave. There are very very good reasons to remain and 'fix' from the inside. However a friend on FB unfriended me after he declared all leavers were racist idiots. I suggested we need to understand why people voted leave. I tried to point out that the rise of the far right within Europe might be down to EU policies. I think there are…

> Of interest there are rumours that the EU is to announce a superstate http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum* The Express is a provably unreliable source with no interest in telling the truth about anything beyond the football scores.

Accepted. Definitely pinch of salt.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#84

Post by ZenoArrow »

Oletros wrote: post #52
ZenoArrow wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "is just a meme" Yeah, it's just a meme... just like we couldn't possibly trade in the EU without a trade deal is just a meme... or that all Leave campaigners are racist/stupid is just a meme...

> just like we couldn't possibly trade in the EU without a trade deal is just a meme This is not what has been said, what has been said is that UK can't have the same trade deals they have right now without the duties they have right now.

The suggested implications that arise from leaving have been heavily based on the perceived damage to the economy. The basis for those implications has always been the volume of trade the UK does with the EU. Even if people aren't outright suggesting that trade will drop to zero, there's a reason that no indications are given to how much trade is likely to drop, and instead the volume of current trade is provided in its place.

This all comes back to media manipulation. Sometimes the media doesn't lie to you directly, they lie through omission. For example, take a look at this comedy sketch from The Guardian about the European Court of Human Rights:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptfmAY6M6aA

This video was brought out at the time when the EU referendum was being publicly discussed. It seems to make a good case for staying in the EU, right? However, there's one key bit of information that is omitted from the video, the European Convention on Human Rights which forms the legal underpinnings of the European Court of Human Rights was negotiated outside the EU through the Council of Europe:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Convention_on_Human_R...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Council_of_Europe

Do you see how, in the context when it was released, that the video could be misleading, even when there weren't any direct lies in the video (that I'm aware of)? I'd suggest it'd be easy to assume after watching the video that giving up the EU also means giving up the European Convention on Human Rights, even when that's not the case.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#85

Post by dalke »

Oletros wrote: post #77
ZenoArrow wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "If you think you can get a better deal than the one we have now, you are irrational or uninformed, if not stupid." It's not all about economics. There are other reasons to Leave that have nothing to do with economics (or immigration, for that matter). Perhaps if you took the time into understanding the problems that exist in the EU you'd see this too. I'd be happy to explain further if you wanted to understand my…

> There are other reasons to Leave that have nothing to do with economics (or immigration, for that matter). I would like to know those reasons, thanks. Almost what I have read from the leave camp are economics, immigration and some nebulous freedom.

The "Left Leave" movement believes the EU is antidemocratic, and designed to maintain price stability, not benefit the social good.

Quoting http://www.leftleave.org/seven-more-myths-about-the-eu/ :

> Those fundamental treaties severely limit the ability of EU member state governments to fund public investment, rescue failing companies and industries, save jobs or use public ownership for wider economic, social and environmental purposes. Should Britain elect a left or progressive government, the treaties will act as a strait-jacket on its policies, which could only be removed if every other EU member state government agrees to treaty change.

While it's true that this still concerns "economics, immigration and some nebulous freedom", the argument is that the EU policies aren't left enough, and, for example, restrict the right of refugees. Quoting from http://www.leftleave.org/the-eu-ratcheting-up-racism/ :

> ... the fact that is that the biggest ratcheting up of the attack on migrants has just been pushed through by the European Union; the treaty arranged by Angela Merkel between the EU and Turkey. That ripped up long established rights of refugees fleeing war and means those in Greece will face deportation back to Turkey, itself becoming less stable, and new arrivals will now be put in detention camps unlike before. The corruption behind all this, with the EU bribing the Turks to sign, speaks volumes about the undemocratic nature of the EU. And yet there are those who think Farage is the main driver of anti-migrant racism, not noticing he’s been sidelined and could only dream of doing something as despicable as fixing that treaty with Turkey.

Here is an interview (with transcript) of people for a "Left Exit", http://www.democracynow.org/2016/6/24/debate_after_shocking_... .

Leftist parties in other countries have a similar anti-EU positions.

However, they are, as far as I can tell, quite the minority.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#86

Post by tomp »

sonium wrote: post #29
lordnacho wrote: post #7

I can say the vitriol after the result has been crazy. My FB has dozens and dozens of posts from Remoaners decrying the idiots, racists, and old people who dared to vote against their righteous interest. At least there's a bit of humour now that England have been booted out of the European Championship. And it's all come out AFTER the result. Before the result, I suppose people thought it would go to Remain, but also…

> I reckon leaving will send a signal about reforming the EU... I heard this frequently, but it is never specified _what_ exactly should be reformed. Also I think that most people really overestimate the EU budget: It's about 1/10th of Germany's/France's or 6 times of Luxemburg's.

> but it is never specified _what_ exactly should be reformed

It's pretty clear that the EU, more specifically the Euro Zone, as currently run, can't go on. We either need a Federal government (i.e. fiscal + monetary union), or to disintegrate the Euro. Simply said, it's unthinkable that the US government would install capital controls in Alabama, whereas the EU government can do that in Greece.

That's the main issue; there are many smaller ones as well, but they exist in almost any political system and aren't specific to the EU.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#87

Post by Brakenshire »

jabbernotty wrote: post #42
jonwachob91 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I believe that the UK will have to leave, because the referendum is said to be binding. It was a non-binding referendum. [1] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-result... [2] http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887 [3] http://www.theweek.co.uk/brexit/73775/eu-referendum-is-the-b... [4] http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/23/welcome-to-the-world-after-br...

Thank you for the correction! I was misinformed by some of my local media that said it was binding. "Het referendum gaat door en het is een bindend referendum." http://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2016/02/19/brexit-afgewend-eu-berei...

I would say it is binding in a political sense, but not in a legal sense.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#88

Post by tomp »

danmaz74 wrote: post #4

> Boris Johnson said that British people would continue to be able to live, work and study in the EU, while at the same time the UK would be able to introduce a points-based system to control migration. I can hardly understand how can so many people believe such an obvious liar.

Who would you believe then? Cameron who said that WW3 would start and Russia would invade Europe?!

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#89

Post by Brakenshire »

lordnacho wrote: post #25
jabbernotty wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the UK needs to trade with Europe, so they cannot ever really leave. Any deal done will end up looking like Switzerland Thse statements are seemingly facts to you, but personally I am not sure how either could become reality. I believe that the UK will have to leave, because the referendum is said to be binding. Going back on that would not be good for future voting or agreements. Swiss politicians did not, as far…

> Thse statements are seemingly facts to you, but personally I am not sure how either could become reality. No, not at all. Things could turn out very differently, it's true. But I lean towards thinking that the countries involved will want to continue trading with each other and basically not rock the economic boat too much.

Doing a deal which is positive for the UK will mean threatening the integrity of the EU (and all the potential economic chaos which could go with it).

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#90

Post by ZenoArrow »

scholia wrote: post #76
ZenoArrow wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Doesn't everyone practice this, every day?" Haha, hell no! Many people absorb what the media says with barely any questioning. Take this article for example, why is there no suggestion of Remain voters switching to Leave? Perhaps it's because the media coverage has been so one sided there's very little chance many people who voted to Remain would have need to question their convictions.

> Perhaps it's because the media coverage has been so one sided All the most one-side media coverage was on the Leave side, wasn't it? The Sun, The Daily Mail and The Daily Express in particular -- the main mass-circulation tabloids -- were full of pro-Leave lies. These are also papers that, not coincidentally, hate the BBC for being independent and excellent value for money.

There have been lies and propaganda on both sides, I won't deny that. However, the coverage in the 'impartial' BBC has been anything but. There have been very few instances of information-rich coverage from any of the mainstream news outlets, the coverage has been much more about personality politics than about fostering a healthy debate.
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