How Cheap Can Solar Get? • Hacker News Board

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#81

Post by ohitsdom » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:31 PM UTC

rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #78

fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

I used to think this way until I started dating a geologist. She brought down my optimism when she detailed the ways that the environment is ravaged to extract the materials necessary to create solar panels, wind turbines, and so on. Rare earths are great for handling high heat, but their resistance to reaction also means it takes a LOT of nasty chemicals to purify the ore. Not that we should keep on burning fossil f…

A one-time dirty process for a future steady source of clean energy. Isn't it still much better than continually burning fossil fuels? And if we're counting extraction costs, don't discount the extraction cost to get fossil fuel and build fossil fuel processors (car engines, power plants, etc).

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#82

Post by 542458 » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:34 PM UTC

ohitsdom wrote: post #81

rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to think this way until I started dating a geologist. She brought down my optimism when she detailed the ways that the environment is ravaged to extract the materials necessary to create solar panels, wind turbines, and so on. Rare earths are great for handling high heat, but their resistance to reaction also means it takes a LOT of nasty chemicals to purify the ore. Not that we should keep on burning fossil f…

A one-time dirty process for a future steady source of clean energy. Isn't it still much better than continually burning fossil fuels? And if we're counting extraction costs, don't discount the extraction cost to get fossil fuel and build fossil fuel processors (car engines, power plants, etc).

> A one-time dirty process

If only it was. Neither solar panels nor wind turbines last for a very long time, and the recycling processes don't exist on an efficient or clean scale for either yet.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#83

Post by rm_-rf_slash » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:37 PM UTC

ohitsdom wrote: post #81

rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to think this way until I started dating a geologist. She brought down my optimism when she detailed the ways that the environment is ravaged to extract the materials necessary to create solar panels, wind turbines, and so on. Rare earths are great for handling high heat, but their resistance to reaction also means it takes a LOT of nasty chemicals to purify the ore. Not that we should keep on burning fossil f…

A one-time dirty process for a future steady source of clean energy. Isn't it still much better than continually burning fossil fuels? And if we're counting extraction costs, don't discount the extraction cost to get fossil fuel and build fossil fuel processors (car engines, power plants, etc).

Anything we do we have to undo, and undo always costs more. It's not a perfect solution (nothing ever is), but we really ought to be bridging the gap with nuclear.

You're right, we will have to bite the bullet to have enough renewable capacity in the future. All I'm arguing is that we know both the risks of action and inaction. It's hard to get a sense of environmental damage from inside a comfortable air-conditioned building.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#84

Post by VLM » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:37 PM UTC

justaaron wrote: post #25

i live off grid inside of a 500w/h peak footprint. i paid around $1000 for proper German (Schutten) panels, a charge controller suitable for them, 2 110ah "solar batteries" (lead acid usual cheapo old school stuff), and a Xantrex inverter. After nearly 1 year running a fridge, lights, computer, router, & studio monitors, I'm ready to add more battery capacity before the winter (cloudy days) and a small wind turbine.…

"no a hairdryer will never ever be possible, as that's 2kw right there"

You don't mention the model of Xantrex inverter but the 813-3000-UL is a 3 KW model.

I'm old enough that when I was young inverters and switching DC-DC and power supplies in general cost about a buck a watt, now its ten cents and dropping. That would have been $4000+ decades ago, now its about $300 delivered.

That's not the only cost, of course, 3 KW at 12 V is a non-trivial DC current, and two hundred aH isn't going to run that hair dryer for hours, but how much hair do you have to dry anyway?

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#85

Post by pjc50 » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:37 PM UTC

rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #78

fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

I used to think this way until I started dating a geologist. She brought down my optimism when she detailed the ways that the environment is ravaged to extract the materials necessary to create solar panels, wind turbines, and so on. Rare earths are great for handling high heat, but their resistance to reaction also means it takes a LOT of nasty chemicals to purify the ore. Not that we should keep on burning fossil f…

The thing is, exactly the same is true of all the other methods of power generation and mineral extraction. You have to at least compare the size and nastiness of the tailings piles. Not to mention CO2 produces carbonic acid when dissolved in oceans; the least "nasty" acid, but still enough to very very slightly change the pH and damage a lot of ocean life.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#86

Post by 542458 » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:39 PM UTC

brrt wrote: post #58

redcalx wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you factored in the CO2 footprint of solar panels? Producing pure silicon is energy intensive, then there are various metals involved, so you've got mining, refinement, smelting, and bulk transport costs. The panels also have a limited lifetime so you need to think about the disposal or recycling cost in 15-20 years. Pretty sure I've missed a load of costs too.

This is calculated in energy return on energy invested (EROI). Solar is doing.. ok in that regard: http://rameznaam.com/2015/06/04/whats-the-eroi-of-solar/ The comparable number for fossil fuels (in this case, oil) is 'well to tank efficiency', which amounts to about 25% for oil, if i recall correctly. So 1/4th of energy contained in oil is already spent to bring it to market. Notably, wind energy has a far more favo…

Wow. I suppose it should have been obvious, but it's still interesting to see nuclear's numbers so high, considering the enormous material requirements for reactors. Only makes me more sad that the world seems to be closing down nuclear rather than opening it up.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#87

Post by pjc50 » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:42 PM UTC

542458 wrote: post #82

ohitsdom wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A one-time dirty process for a future steady source of clean energy. Isn't it still much better than continually burning fossil fuels? And if we're counting extraction costs, don't discount the extraction cost to get fossil fuel and build fossil fuel processors (car engines, power plants, etc).

> A one-time dirty process If only it was. Neither solar panels nor wind turbines last for a very long time, and the recycling processes don't exist on an efficient or clean scale for either yet.

Most panels have a rated life of 25 years and deteriorate slowly. That provides plenty of time for the recycling to be built. It's also comparable to the design lifetime of most types of non-renewable power plant.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#88

Post by VLM » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:42 PM UTC

RamezNaam wrote: post #7

Hi. I'm the author of this blog post. Happy to answer questions people have, as time allows, on Wednesday. Upcoming posts will look at the future of wind power, the future of energy storage, and what the missing pieces are. If you don't want to wait, you can read my thoughts on energy storage here: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...

Assuming solar panels always require weather sealed sheets of glass, it would be interesting to look at graphs of cost of LCD displays per Sq Meter vs year compared to graphs for plain old house windows per sq meter over the years.

Its likely it'll never be cheaper to build traditional sealed glass panels cheaper than house windows, although per sq meter it might get cheaper than televisions.

Some of the more optimistic claims outside the article seem to have very unusual assumptions about the cost of glass.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#89

Post by andyjohnson0 » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:43 PM UTC

europestup wrote: post #61

We all know that PV panels have a limited lifetime, and that building them has environmental cost. But I was wondering about recycling: does anybody know how much energy can be saved by creating new panels using materials from old ones?

Not really answering your question, but as far as I know panel lifetime is largely determined by cumulative damage from the environment. Scratches from trees, etc. reduce effectiveness, as does rain leaking into the panel through gaps created by the daily thermal cycle. There may be a lot of scope for extending their lifetime by improving packing, which would defer the environmental impact of recycling. There is some info on these factors in [1].

Also, panels may be declared end-of-life because they are not as effective as newer ones, even though they are still generating to original specification.

[1] http://energyinformative.org/lifespan-solar-panels/

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#90

Post by pjc50 » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:50 PM UTC

rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #80

slxh wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You probably also should include the CO2 footprint of energy storage/batteries if you plan on going 100% solar.

Wildly under-appreciated point. Many of those batteries die out quicker than you might think, and hold way less energy density than gasoline. Plus the environmental costs (much nastier stuff than CO2) of extracting rare earths and elements like lithium are huge. Since most of us on HN don't live in the global south or northwest China, we've never seen the breathtaking environmental devastation that brings us these "g…

breathtaking environmental devastation that brings us these "green" technologies

Again, this should be compared with the breathtaking environmental devastation of the non-green technologies. Most of us don't live in Appalachia (coal), Canada (tar sands) or Dakota (fracking) either. Or one of the two failed reactor exclusion zones in the world.