791–800 of 1001 posts
incidentally, I love these kinds of market crashes. just moved a big chunk of my savings account into stocks last night :). Buy and hold. dont' sell during a dip lol
Here’s a take I haven’t seen yet: If training and inference just got 40x more efficient, but OpenAI and co. still have the same compute resources, once they’ve baked in all the DeepSeek improvements, we’re about to find out very quickly whether 40x the compute delivers 40x the performance / output quality, or if output quality has ceased to be compute-bound.
> If training and inference just got 40x more efficient Did training and inference just get 40x more efficient, or just training? They trained a model with impressive outputs on a limited number of GPUs, but DeepSeek is still a big model that requires a lot of resources to run. Moreover, which costs more, training a model once or using it for inference across a hundred million people multiple times a day for a year?…
https://mlnotes.substack.com/p/the-valleys-going-crazy-how-d...
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Why is there this implicit assumption that more efficient training/inference will reduce GPU demand? It seems more likely - based on historical precedent in the computing industry - that demand will expand to fill the available hardware. We can do more inference and more training on fewer GPUs. That doesn’t mean we need to stop buying GPUs. Unless people think we’re already doing the most training/inference we’ll eve…
Over the long run maybe, but for the next 2 years the market will struggle to find a use for all this possible extra gpus. There is no real consumer demand for AI products and lots of backlash whenever implemented eg: that Coca Cola ad. It's going to be a big hit to demand in the short to medium term as the hyperscalers cut back/reasses.
In a thread full of people who have no idea what they're talking about either from the ML side or the finance side, this is the worst take here.
OpenAI alone reports hundreds of millions of MAU. That's before we talk about all of the other players. Before we talk about the immense demand in media like Hollywood and games.
Heck there's an entire new entertainment industry forming with things like character ai having more than 20M MAU. Midjourney has about the same.
Definitely. An industry in its infancy that already has hundreds of millions of MAU across of it shows that there's zero demand because of some ad no one has seen.
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But every successful SV founder and or VC is not only a tech genius but also a geopolitical and socioeconomic expert! That’s why they make war companies, cozy up to politicians, and talk about how woke is ruining the world. /s
In fairness, 'geopolitical experts' may not really exist. There are a range of people who make up interesting stories to a greater or lesser extent but all seem to be serially misinformed. Some things are too complicated to have expertise in. Indeed, while the existence of socioeconomic experts seems more likely we don't have any way of reliably identifying them. The people who actually end up making social or econom…
Geopolitics can be studied and learned, and is something that diplomats heavily rely upon.
Of course, those geopolitical strategies can play in certain ways we don't foresee, as on the other side we also have an actor that is free to do what they want.
But for instance, if you give Mexico a very good trade agreement as a strong country like the US, it's very likely that they will work with you on your special requests.
Here’s a take I haven’t seen yet: If training and inference just got 40x more efficient, but OpenAI and co. still have the same compute resources, once they’ve baked in all the DeepSeek improvements, we’re about to find out very quickly whether 40x the compute delivers 40x the performance / output quality, or if output quality has ceased to be compute-bound.
Does line go up forever?
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I think you’re wrong and Wallstreet got Deepseek’s impact wrong. You say DeepSeek should decrease Nvidia demand. Wallstreet agreed today. I say DeepSeek should increase Nvidia’s demand due to Jevon’s Paradox.
I’m also baffled by the reaction. Even with the ability to do more with less, the nature of the race still encourages everyone to do more with more.
Also, why not invest in AMD or Intel bur Nvidia till now: Because Nvidia had the moat and there was a race to buy as much GPU as possible at the moment. Now momentarily Nvidia sales would go down.
For long term investers who are investing in a future, not now, Nvidia was way overpriced. They will start buying when the price is right, but at the moment it's still way too high. Nvidia is worth 20-30 billion or so in reality.
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I don’t understand why this is not obvious to many people: tech and stock trading are totally two different things, why on earth a tech expert is expected to know trading at all? Imagining how ridiculous it would be if a computer science graduate will also automatically get a financial degree from college even though no financial class has been taken.
It's because software devs are smart and make a lot of money - a natural next step is to try and use their smarts to do something with that money. Hence stocks.
They just think they're smart BECAUSE they make a lot of money. Just because you can center divs for six figures a year at a F500 doesn't make you smart at everything.
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This just seems like a very bold statement to make in the first two years of LLMs. There are so many workflows where they are either not yet embedded at all, or only involved in a limited capacity. It doesn’t take much imagination to see the areas for growth. And that’s before even considering the growth in adoption. I think it’s a safe bet that LLM usage will proliferate in terms of both number of users, and number…
> This just seems like a very bold statement to make in the first two years of LLMs GPT-3 is 5 years old, this tech has been looking for a problem to solve for a really long time now. Many billions has already been burned trying to find a viable business model for these, and so far nothing has been found that warrants anything even close to multi trillion dollar valuations. Even when the product is free people don't…
It's just not called chatgpt. Instead it is at the top of every Google search you do. Same technology.
It has basically replaced search for most people. A massive industry turned over in 5 years by a totally new technology.
Funny how the tech took over so completely it blends into the background to the point where you think it doesn't exist.
I find it interesting because the DeepSeek stuff, while very cool, doesn't seem invalidate that more compute wouldn't translate to even _higher_ capabilities? It's amazing what they did with a limited budget, but instead of the takeaway being "we don't need that much compute to achieve X", it could also be, "These new results show that we can achieve even 1000*X with our currently planned compute buildout" But perhap…
Probably not. If the price of Nvidia is dropping, it's because investors see a world where Nvidia hardware is less valuable, probably because it will be used less. You can't do the distill/magnify cycle like you do with alphago. LLM models have basically stalled in their base capabilities, pre training is basically over at this point, so the news arms race will be over marginal capability gains and (mostly) making th…
90% of the comments in this thread make it clear that knowing about technology does not in any way qualify someone to think correctly about markets and equity valuations.
I think you’re wrong and Wallstreet got Deepseek’s impact wrong. You say DeepSeek should decrease Nvidia demand. Wallstreet agreed today. I say DeepSeek should increase Nvidia’s demand due to Jevon’s Paradox.
We are forgetting that China has a whole hardware ecosystem. Now we learn that building SOTA models does not need SOTA hardware in massive quanties from nvidia. So the crash in the market implicitly could mean that the (hardware) monopoly of American companies is not going to be more than a few years. The hardware moat is not as deep as the West thought.
Once China brings scale like it did to batteries, EVs, solar, infrastructure, drones (etc) they will be able to run and train their models on their own hardware. Probably some time away but less time than what Wall Street thought.
This is actually more about nvidia than about OpenAI. OpenAI owns the end interface and it will be generally safe (maybe at a smaller valuation). In the long term nvidia is more replaceable than you think it is. Inference is going to dominate the market -- its going to be cerebras, groq, amd, intel, nvidia, google TPUs, chinese TPUs etc.
On the training side, there will be less demand for nvidia GPUs as meta, google, microsoft etc. extract efficiencies with the GPUs they already have given the embarrasing success of DeepSeek. Now, China might have been another insatiable market for nvidia but the export controls have ensured that it wont be.