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Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

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Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#791

Post by anthonypasq »

DebtDeflation wrote: post #710
famouswaffles wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"There are maybe a few hundred people in the world who viscerally understand what's coming. Most are at DeepMind / OpenAI / Anthropic / X but some are on the outside. You have to be able to forecast the aggregate effect of rapid algorithmic improvement, aggressive investment in building RL environments for iterative self-improvement, and many tens of billions already committed to building data centers. Either we're a…

>Maybe they really are all wrong All? Quite a few of the best minds in the field, like Yann LeCun for example, have been adamant that 1) autoregressive LLMs are NOT the path to AGI and 2) that AGI is very likely NOT just a couple of years away.

I'm inclined to agree with Yann about true AGI, but he works at Meta and they seem to think current LLM's are sufficiently useful to be dumping preposterous amounts of money at them as well.

It may be a distinction thats not worth making if the current approach is good enough to completely transform society and make infinite money

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#792

Post by maxglute »

wujerry2000 wrote: post #492

For fun, I calculated how this stacks up against other humanity-scale mega projects. Mega Project Rankings (USD Inflation Adjusted) The New Deal: $1T, Interstate Highway System: $618B, OpenAI Stargate: $500B, The Apollo Project: $278B, International Space Station: $180B, South-North Water Transfer: $106B, The Channel Tunnel: $31B, Manhattan Project: $30B Insane Stuff.

Also note compute deprecates much faster than multi decade infra projects with chance of obsolecence. If deepseek keeps pace with releasing near SOTA models, those compute centres are going to have hard time recooping value / return on capital.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#793

Post by worthless-trash »

mppm wrote: post #558

Apart from my general queasiness about the whole AGI scaling business and the power concentration that comes with it, these are the exact four people/entities that I would not want to be at the tip of said power concentration.

We should NEVER have a lawnmower at the helm of humanity.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#794

Post by causal »

jnsaff2 wrote: post #786

I miss n gate so much. I asked AI to generate one for this thread. "In a stunning display of fiscal restraint, Sam Altman only asks for $500 billion instead of his previous $7 trillion moonshot. Hackernews rejoices that the money will be spent in Texas, where the power grid is as stable as a cryptocurrency exchange. Oracle's involvement prompts lengthy discussions about whether Larry Ellison's surveillance dystopia w…

Okay that's hilarious.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#795

Post by whimsicalism »

CSSer wrote: post #622
deknos wrote: post #589

This is so much money with which we could actually solve problems in the world. maybe even stop wars which break out because of scarcity issues. maybe i am getting to old or to friendly to humans, but it's staggering to me how the priorities are for such things.

For less than this same price tag, we could’ve eliminated student loan debt for ~20 million Americans. It would in turn open a myriad number of opportunities, like owning a home and/or feeling more comfortable starting a family. It would stimulate the economy in predictable ways. Instead we gave a small number of people all of this money for a moonshot in a state where they squabble over who’s allowed to use which ba…

i’m sorry but student debt payoffs are probably one of the lowest socially valuable uses of this money, rather than basic things like snap or housing vouchers. sorta shows how myopic HN is, student debt is a relatable concern so it gets prioritized

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#796

Post by rchaud »

The US appears to be fully in the grips of centralized economic autarky. A tiny coterie of industrialists who have the President's ear decide how to allocate a gigantic amount of capital for their pet projects while the state raises tariffs and implements bans to protect them from competition.

Didn't go well for South America in the 60s and 70s but perhaps, as economists are prone to saying, "this time will be different".

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#797

Post by whimsicalism »

nejsjsjsbsb wrote: post #673
CSSer wrote: post #622

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For less than this same price tag, we could’ve eliminated student loan debt for ~20 million Americans. It would in turn open a myriad number of opportunities, like owning a home and/or feeling more comfortable starting a family. It would stimulate the economy in predictable ways. Instead we gave a small number of people all of this money for a moonshot in a state where they squabble over who’s allowed to use which ba…

Eliminating some student debt is a fish. Free university is the fishing rod. Do that instead.

we are vastly overspending and will either need to monetize the debt (disastrous) or massively cut spending and raise taxes in the future. already now, we need to massively raise taxes on the wealthy but even that will be insufficient with our current spend.

free college is just a giveaway to the wealthier third of our society and irresponsible with our current fiscal situation.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#798

Post by whimsicalism »

whimsicalism wrote: post #795
CSSer wrote: post #622

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For less than this same price tag, we could’ve eliminated student loan debt for ~20 million Americans. It would in turn open a myriad number of opportunities, like owning a home and/or feeling more comfortable starting a family. It would stimulate the economy in predictable ways. Instead we gave a small number of people all of this money for a moonshot in a state where they squabble over who’s allowed to use which ba…

i’m sorry but student debt payoffs are probably one of the lowest socially valuable uses of this money, rather than basic things like snap or housing vouchers. sorta shows how myopic HN is, student debt is a relatable concern so it gets prioritized

also just: “why invest it when we could spend it on consumption now” is a good argument against letting private wealth usage be socially determined if most people just always vote for consumption now

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#800

Post by whimsicalism »

rchaud wrote: post #796

The US appears to be fully in the grips of centralized economic autarky. A tiny coterie of industrialists who have the President's ear decide how to allocate a gigantic amount of capital for their pet projects while the state raises tariffs and implements bans to protect them from competition. Didn't go well for South America in the 60s and 70s but perhaps, as economists are prone to saying, "this time will be differ…

this is private capital. yes, we are in an era of big projects and big capital deployment. is that synonymous with centralized autarky? i don’t agree
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