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Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

reuters.com

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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#791

Post by grayfaced »

afterburner wrote: post #761
hef19898 wrote: post #756

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That, along with North Korea, only shows you that it is, within the global game of influence, pretty stupid to give up a nuclear capability once you have it.

Ukraine had no choice. They were Russian nukes, and not giving them back would have probably triggered a war immediately . But with Ukraine drowning in pro-Russian influence at the time, there is no chance they would have defied Russia.

They were soviet nukes. Ukraine was soviet land and soviet people too. Breakaways by definition take stuff with them. To claim Russia had a right to the nukes is no different then saying they had a right to the land and people.

They had a choice, they just chose the one that didn't lead to war.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#792

Post by cormacrelf »

marttt wrote: post #781
beloch wrote: post #703

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily . Russia can attack non-NATO countries and intimidate NATO into doing nothing, but to attack a NATO member would automatically bring the whole alliance into the war. The whole point of alliances like NATO is to prevent countries from being picked off by a bully the way U…

Former journalist from Estonia here. Our media republished a 1994 speech given by late president of Estonia Lennart Meri at a banquet in Hamburg, Germany. Vladimir Putin, a then internationally unknown politician from St Petersburg, was also among the listeners -- and demonstratively walked out of the room during Meri's speech, as reported by Deutsche Welle [1]. Quoting DW: "On February 25, 1994, Putin was also in at…

Interesting! A bit of an echo happened yesterday: there was a big walkout at the OSCE meeting, before Belarus and Russia started to speak.

https://twitter.com/rikardjozwiak/status/1496913193360400387

https://twitter.com/ger_osce/status/1496917994559066117?s=21

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#793

Post by mopsi »

rmk wrote: post #265
trhway wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the timing of this is more related to Putin's political situation at home. yes, as i already wrote during the last year, Ukraine got Turkish drones and with them the window of opportunity to win the Donbass war (like Azerbaijan/Turkey did against Armenia/Russia). The fall of Donbass would have been a large failure for Putin which his regime would have hard time to survive. Without bringing aviation though Russian fo…

Yes, Russia has a finite window in which it can bring in its tanks and heavy artillery, which are its strengths, before the spring thaws mire them in the mud. It's not entirely clear what the endgame is here, though. They can not sustain an occupation, and they will suffer heavy casualties if they do a street-to-street urban war; they will face questions at home if heavy Russian casualties are incurred, which is enti…

> It's not entirely clear what the endgame is here

Fuck up Ukraine and go home. Belarus has already been turned into a puppet state, and if they manage to turn Ukraine into a similar puppet or at least a failed state, there will remain no prosperous alternative in Russian-speaking world to Putin's Russia.

Russians have massive inferiority complex since at least the 1960s when Soviet Union began to significantly fall behind the West and this is their way of dealing with it.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#794

Post by hef19898 »

rob74 wrote: post #434
dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

Or, as Sting once sang, "I hope the Russians love their children too" - in this case, one particular Russian...

Russians, like all people in all countries, do love their children and hope for a peaceful and safe life. The people at the top are the problem, again in every single country. Granted, some of those people at the top today are much bigger problem than others.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#795

Post by nopenopenopeno »

ed_balls wrote: post #765
ed wrote: post #720

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2. Develop nuclear weapons. Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine had nuclear weapons but gave them up because Russia agreed not to invade them. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur...

I hope it's abundantly clear to anyone that Putin and buddies cannot be trusted. Whenever some politician suggest any deals with them, shut him/her down.

…Iran Nuclear Deal?

Putin is insane, but his record of recklessness and betrayal simply doesn’t come close to the mischief of the United States on the global stage.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#796

Post by Lascaille »

allisdust wrote: post #731
beloch wrote: post #703

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily . Russia can attack non-NATO countries and intimidate NATO into doing nothing, but to attack a NATO member would automatically bring the whole alliance into the war. The whole point of alliances like NATO is to prevent countries from being picked off by a bully the way U…

On paper yes. They are obligated to join or whatever. In practice, the whole west has become so risk averse in last few decades, they would just fold and offer 'asylum' to the fleeing poles and making statements like doing everything in their power to avoid 'escalations'. Unfortunate reality is that the west collectively lost their balls post 9/11 due to the needless wars sapping the spirit. They would wait till its…

>On paper yes. They are obligated to join or whatever. In practice, the whole west has become so risk averse in last few decades

I also thought this. Would other NATO members really step in to defend Poland? I know the treaty obliges them to, but in reality would they?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#797

Post by Lascaille »

gambiting wrote: post #747
markdown wrote: post #718

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to have missed the point. > If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily And? They can't actually respond militarily because MAD. NATO is useless if the enemy knows you won't initiate MAD, but they can (democracy vs dictatorship).

>>And? They can't actually respond militarily because MAD. Why? Of course they would. And yes we would all die. It's the other way around - a NATO country wouldn't be attacked by Russia because yes, NATO would attack back.

>because yes, NATO would attack back

That's what it says on paper, yes. That's the theory.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#798

Post by sofixa »

throwaway894345 wrote: post #405
sofixa wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> His plan isn't to take entire control of Ukraine militarily but to swap the legit government with a puppet one he would control at will. Once he succeed, which is a matter of a few days,he'll gradually withdraw most of the forces, things will slowly return to normal and in a few years Ukraine will essentially (if not effectively) annex itself to Russia I wouldn't be so certain. I don't think Ukrainians would just c…

Genuine question: how much does Russian public opinion matter? It's not like Russia has free elections. Iran's Islamic Republic seems pretty secure despite low public approval. I'm sure public opinion is important, but I don't understand its role in a dictatorship.

It matters of course, because if the people get pissed enough they'll topple the dictatorship, especially if the security services get disenchanted as well.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#799

Post by danuker »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #365
qbasic_forever wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah the site is a massive liability for whoever controls it. There's a ton of work left to do to fully decommission it and make it safe.

What if, and bear with me, Russia doesn't care about safety?

Well then, Russian soldiers and Belarus will see some nuclear fallout.

Right now the wind is blowing North.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/bio/surface/level/anno...

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#800

Post by roenxi »

ed wrote: post #720
beloch wrote: post #703

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily . Russia can attack non-NATO countries and intimidate NATO into doing nothing, but to attack a NATO member would automatically bring the whole alliance into the war. The whole point of alliances like NATO is to prevent countries from being picked off by a bully the way U…

> 2. Develop nuclear weapons. Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine had nuclear weapons but gave them up because Russia agreed not to invade them. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur...

The number of countries that have fallen for that line paints a depressing picture of political comprehension among politicians. How have they - of all the classes in the world - not cottoned on to how this works?

It is a minor miracle when voters can get their own government to follow through on an inconvenient promise. Promises mean nothing when foreign armies are involved.

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