791–800 of 915 posts
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Remember with Flu, the doctors and nurses can't get it, and can't spread it. The danger with this is that all the doctors get sick/quarantined and then no-one gets treated.
Anyone can get the flu, even those with flu shots
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Quarantine a whole neighbourhood when a case is found, keep it locked down until everyone has tested negative for two weeks. Drive-through testing where everybody with any symptoms can get themselves tested. A good public education campaign with calm TV documentaries that show the facts of what was going on in Wuhan and is now going on in Italy, and explains why these actions need to be taken.
So basically a measured, fact based response to it. Sounds good if you ask me! Especially the education campaign is thoroughly missed at the moment.
The only next step is large scale lock downs.
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Italy has a population of 60 million. The WHO reports "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died". If 50% the population gets infected, and if it's not 3.4% but "just" 3% mortality rate, that's already 1 million dead. And according to some experts, even 70% infection rate is predicted. Second, this 3.4% percentage of deceased patients, is at the early stages, with fewer patients and preventive measure…
That's not how epidemics work. Even China was nowhere near these numbers. Stuff like that doesn't spread the way you assume it does. But ok, the source is your own calculations. Thanks for confirming.
That's not how epidemics work when they are contained quickly.
Europe has done a bad job at this.
Epidemics in the past have killed many times as many as the percentages above.
The government is calling to unity, and the situation is tragic enough that no-one can ignore the call. However the left wing (and the current ruling coalition) has some serious responsibilities here, and I hope they are held accountable once this mess is over. A few weeks ago we were told that 'the only virus there is, is racism', implying that people worried about the virus spreading were doing so because of an ant…
Left or right, all governments seem to be doing less than stellar job fighting this, to say the least. I don't understand why it is relevant.
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The other thing is the incubation period is around 5 days. So really the numbers are at least 5 days behind.
In my opinion, this is really the main reason why this virus is spreading globally. In fact, the average incubation period seems to be 5 days, which is already a lot. But apparently, some subjects had an incubation period up to 24 days, if correct, this is huge and the main reason why it suddenly raised in Italy. Imagine only one relatively social person in Italy, in 24 days he/she can probably meet at least 50 perso…
I'm by no means an expert, but to me the problem seems to be lack of proactive social distancing; and lack of proactive testing of everyone with symptoms.
Current guidelines seems statistically sound, it's just that we have little mitigation for the few that do slip through.
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So basically a measured, fact based response to it. Sounds good if you ask me! Especially the education campaign is thoroughly missed at the moment.
I'm hoping TV crews get into Lombardy hospitals and show the West what is happening there, it might get people to take this seriously. But then someone needs to also give them clear instructions or it will just be panic.
Report by an italien doctor from Bergamo: https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/con-le-nos...
Translated to english: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236933818654896129.html
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Politicians have no understanding of exponential growth. They look at low numbers and think "we have a lot of time" then are surprised later when they in fact don't.
Trump providing a shining example of this! https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/12370273563148697...
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Trouble is, once its a catastrophe, its too late to put the cat back in the bag?
Why do we keep circling back to this? It is/was a catastrophe in Wuhan, and the cat is reluctantly being forced back into the bag. By existence, it is not too late. See my earlier comment in this thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22532892
And yeah Wuhan says they've got it under control. We'll see.
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China was slow, and it turned into a disaster, then they got their act together. Italy was slower than that.
I don't think we're actually slow. Yes, the risk was clear from the beginning, but the government had to take care of the economic situation too, which was (and is) rapidly collapsing. Some choices are maybe arguable, but when compared to other EU countries Italians were quite fast to converge to some decisions.
[1] https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/09/italy-covid19-coronavir...