Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

Post by john_strinlai » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:45 PM UTC

freetime2 wrote: post #282

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

I don't like this either, but from the article: > Although Nasdaq has already shortened the “seasoning” period before index inclusion to 15 trading days and FTSE Russell has slashed its waiting time to five days (and S&P Dow Jones is reportedly considering something similar), most share indices weight firms in proportion to the value only of shares they have released for public trading (the “free float”). For SpaceX,…

Post by moduspol » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:50 PM UTC

itake wrote: post #673

giancarlostoro wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…

People want to buy SpaceX, not Twitter, Tesla, xAI. Unfortunately Elon has been conflating the three.

Post by outside1234 » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:51 PM UTC

ben_w wrote: post #540

iLoveOncall wrote: post #481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's wrong. Amazon is worth $2.81T right now and only represents 4.03% of the S&P500. So a $1T share would represent less than 2% of the S&P500. This is significant for a single company, and 6% for 3 shit-tier companies (SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic) is even more significant, but we're far from "losing retirement if they go bust"-levels.

I've recently learned a new finance term, "float", and I want to check if this makes a difference to this discussion? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_float I hear S&P 500 is weighted on float rather than on market cap, while Nasdaq 100 is based on market cap.

Post by deaton » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:56 PM UTC

jkarni wrote: post #717

jillesvangurp wrote: post #535

Maybe to counter some of the apparently widely expected doom and gloom: - bubbles are notoriously unpredictable and generally don't happen when they are loudly and widely proclaimed to happen any minute now. - large scale infrastructure spending tends to be really good for economies. These three companies are creating lots of jobs that are mostly related to construction, energy infrastructure, hardware spending, etc.…

> bubbles are notoriously unpredictable and generally don't happen when they are loudly and widely proclaimed to happen any minute now. Is that true? It seemed to me that the most common opinion before the recent Chinese real estate crash was that it was a bubble; architect friends of mine who worked in China said the government had no doubt prices were unreasonably high; the thing they remained hopeful about is whet…

Post by tristanj » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 3:01 PM UTC

me551ah wrote: post #692

None of these companies have any MOAT. LLMs are getting better at a rapid pace and in a year or two, Chinese LLMs should easily catch up with the best of the models. Models have kind of reached a saturation point and that’s why OpenAI and Anthropic are doing an IPO now. Because a year down the line when their lead diminishes even more, they would be worth lesser money. SpaceX has clients to put payloads into space, b…