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Tesla ending Models S and X production

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Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#771

Post by jordanb »

torginus wrote: post #521
lnsru wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gamble with Cybertruck failed. It’s common sense, that such a vehicle will fail. The successful cars are made for masses and not for niche buyers. Common sense product could be something smaller than Model 3 for Europe and this car would eat Chinese for lunch. Expensive experiment failed, it’s time for consequences. Does Tesla have resources for another car experiment? Will it stay a car company?.. Or it will be…

It didn't fail imo - it was intended a low-volume product for next-gen Tesla tech - Ethernet based fieldbus, 48V systems, area controllers etc. The philosophy is the same like other high-end cars - you field test your latest experimental tech first in a car with lower sales but high margins - if your fancy stuff has a 1% failure rate, in a 100k production run, that's 1000 vehicles - high but manageable. If you sell m…

> it was intended a low-volume product for next-gen Tesla tech

If this is true that's not what Musk was saying beforehand.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#772

Post by quest88 »

assimpleaspossi wrote: post #723
bearjaws wrote: post #674

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are they still making the cybertruck then? I see way more Model S and X than Cybertruck.

Probably the same reason Ford makes one, too.

Ford recently stopped it. https://www.npr.org/2025/12/15/nx-s1-5645147/ford-discontinu...

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#773

Post by WarmWash »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #447
laughing_man wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk's goal all along was to get away from boutique production. He wants to sell millions of cheaper cars, not thousands of cars for wealthy people. Not sure it's going to work out. Without some big jumps in battery tech, EVs are going to be difficult to sell without subsidies.

> Without some big jumps in battery tech, EVs are going to be difficult to sell without subsidies. The actual sales figures show otherwise, but sure, there's still a lot of uncertainty with regards to batteries / range, I can imagine even moreso in the US. Traveled to Austria a while ago in an EV (~1000 kilometers), we had to stop 3x on the way, but the battery was good for another 2.5 hours of driving after a coffee…

The whole battery thing is a massive misunderstanding of how EVs work vs gas vehicles.

For an EV with a range of 250 miles (400km) you can drive 400mi (645km) with one (1) thirty minute stop.

That's pretty much, drive 3 hours, stop for 30 minute lunch, drive 3 hours.

The confusion stems from the fact that gas cars don't fill up themselves before you depart, and they don't fill up themselves when you arrive. There are rather large differences between gas and electric cars, but people still treat EVs like gas cars, and demand EVs be more like gas cars.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#774

Post by philistine »

gwbas1c wrote: post #703
sgjohnson wrote: post #485

Tesla will become a case study on how to completely waste the first-mover advantage. For many people, the very term EV itself is still ubiquitous to Tesla. And somehow Tesla is still worth more than every other non-Chinese automaker combined. $1.5T. GM? $80B. Stellantis? $40B. Toyota? $280B. Mercedes-Benz? $60B. BMW? $55B. Volkswagen Group? Also $55B. I’m sure I’ve missed plenty of others, but I could miss some 18 $5…

> And to add insult to injury, even GM Super Cruise is widely renowned as better and safer than Tesla’s current “FSD”. My Huyndai's Autopilot equivalent (I don't even know what they call it) is better than the enhanced Autopilot in the Model 3 that I traded in. It actually changes lanes when I put on the blinker, instead of only changing lanes 70% of the time, and the other time just sitting with the blinker on and a…

Most probably because it has a radar that the Tesla lacks. That means your car has two sources of truth and can very efficiently and quickly make an informed decision about whether or not there's anything in the way.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#775

Post by blinding-streak »

sebastian_z wrote: post #715

A genuine question, what are the use cases for Tesla's Optimus robots? Are they consumer products that help with household chores, industrial robots for warehouses or manufacturing, a play toy, something else?

They are a financial engineering product with limited real world utility, in an attempt to keep the company solvent.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#776

Post by jmyeet »

sgjohnson wrote: post #485

Tesla will become a case study on how to completely waste the first-mover advantage. For many people, the very term EV itself is still ubiquitous to Tesla. And somehow Tesla is still worth more than every other non-Chinese automaker combined. $1.5T. GM? $80B. Stellantis? $40B. Toyota? $280B. Mercedes-Benz? $60B. BMW? $55B. Volkswagen Group? Also $55B. I’m sure I’ve missed plenty of others, but I could miss some 18 $5…

> Tesla will become a case study on how to completely waste the first-mover advantage.

It's a study in many things.

Tesla only exists because of the transfer of wealth from the government. DOE loans, EV tax credits and other incentives are the difference between existing and not existing.

That's not necessarily bad. The problem is the government really gets nothing for their money. Look at how China incubates their businesses.

As an example, imagine where we'd be if the government had insisted on standardized charging infrastructure instead of Tesla's originally proprietary Supercharger network.

> If Tesla was valued fairly, it would probably be at the tune of $5B.

I could see it as high as $100B but not $1.5T. Not even close.

And I, too, would never bet against it. Nothing fundamental is behind Tesla's valuation. It's just gambling.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#777

Post by sib »

Deklomalo wrote: post #574
JasonBorne wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course it will be high. Transit is a huge market. They would just need a small share of Uber, lyft, regular taxis, public transit.

Tesla is already valued 9x higher than uber. Uber makes money on every ride. Teslas Robotaxi has to be cheaper than a taxi with a human and i don't think they will be able to have a lot higher revenue per ride than uber. Not 9x And if Tesla starts to deliver a robotaxi, all of this revenue has to be shared between taxis, uber, Tesla, Waimo, Zoox, Rimac, Cruise, Baidu, WeRide, ... So how huge is the market for Tesla t…

>> i don't think they will be able to have a lot higher revenue per ride than uber. Not 9x

Why would Tesla need to have higher revenue per ride than Uber? The value of a company is driven (ultimately) by its profit, not its revenue. And Tesla doesn't have to give the majority of the fare to the driver.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#778

Post by ceejayoz »

sidcool wrote: post #639
ceejayoz wrote: post #628

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the same argument people made with Bernie Madoff before the ponzi collapsed.

Seriously? This comment cant be serious.

It really was the argument there; that he'd been in business so long with such great returns that everyone assumed it had to have been looked into by everyone else.

> If a company was overvalued for a couple of years, it's ok to be sceptical. Tesla has been at such high valuations for many years now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Madoff

"Madoff said that he began the Ponzi scheme in the early 1990s, but an ex-trader admitted in court to faking records for Madoff since the early 1970s."

The SEC stuff rhymes a bit, too:

"The SEC's inspector general, Kotz, found that since 1992, there had been six investigations of Madoff by the SEC, which were botched either through incompetent staff work or by neglecting allegations of financial experts and whistle-blowers. At least some of the SEC investigators doubted whether Madoff was even trading."

Now, Tesla actually makes stuff; it's not a ponzi. But it's a wildly inflated stock that looks entirely divorced from the business metrics available to us.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#779

Post by kjs3 »

testing22321 wrote: post #742
sgjohnson wrote: post #565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's pure logic that Tesla has to pursue bets that would justify billion dollar valuations and being a car company isn't that. But it's make-believe. Tesla is a car manufacturer. They haven't shipped anything else other than cars. And they even suck at making cars these days. Tesla Semi? All but dead. The new roadster? Also dead. Full Self Driving? Doesn't exist. Robotaxis? Even if they got them to work, at this po…

I know it’s popular to hate on Elon and therefore Tesla, but you need to be accurate when doing so. They’re still chipping away. > Tesla Semi?All but dead. They’ve been running a pilot all this time, and the factory in Nevada to mass produce them is on schedule. Production ramp is second half of this year. The factory is ginormous. > The new roadster? Also dead. Elon said yesterday the unveil is in April “hopefully”…

They’ve been running a pilot all this time

So did Nikola.

Elon said yesterday the unveil is in April “hopefully”

Who could possibly argue with that.

Obviously everything is way behind elons hype timelines, but I do still think it’s all coming.

At least you've identified it for what it is.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#780

Post by gkfasdfasdf »

sgjohnson wrote: post #485

Tesla will become a case study on how to completely waste the first-mover advantage. For many people, the very term EV itself is still ubiquitous to Tesla. And somehow Tesla is still worth more than every other non-Chinese automaker combined. $1.5T. GM? $80B. Stellantis? $40B. Toyota? $280B. Mercedes-Benz? $60B. BMW? $55B. Volkswagen Group? Also $55B. I’m sure I’ve missed plenty of others, but I could miss some 18 $5…

> And to add insult to injury, even GM Super Cruise is widely renowned as better and safer than Tesla’s current “FSD”.

Do you have any sources for that claim? I can attest that current iteration of FSD is very, very good, and very likely is a safer driver than I am. At least one major insurance company agrees [0]. I don't have any experience with Super Cruise though.

[0] - https://www.lemonade.com/fsd

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