I kind of see "full product skills" as building the product and making it successful, with all that that entails.
Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
761–770 of 829 posts
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#762Earlier quoted context omitted.
What makes you think that’s true?
Human managers (who are good at their jobs) bring a little Bedside Manner, a modicum of compassion to Human Resource Allocation that will soon be seen as a luxury compared to low-cost, fully-automated Human Resource Monitoring & Reinforcement Systems
”Repeat the task, with a more pleasant bedside manner.”
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#763Earlier quoted context omitted.
A lot of people have already figured out at some tricks to improving code generation. You can fairly easily update the “next token” choice with a syntax check filter. LLMs like ChatGPT provide a selection of “likely” options, not a single perfect choice. Simply filter the top-n recommendations mechanically for validity. This will improve output a lot. Similarly, backtracking can be used to fix larger semantic errors.…
Currently ChatGPT isn't, at least via public access, hooked up to a compiler or interpreter that it can use to feed the code it generates into and determine whether it executes as expected. That wouldn't even seem particularly difficult to do, and once it is, ChatGPT would literally be able to train itself how to get the desired result.
Precisely. I think people should consider the "v4" in "ChatGPT 4" as more like "0.4 alpha".
We're very much in the "early days" of experimenting with how LLMs can be effectively used. The API restrictions enforced by OpenAI are preventing entire categories of use-cases from being tested.
Expect to see fine-tuned versions of LLaMA run circles around ChatGPT once people start hooking it up like this.
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#764Earlier quoted context omitted.
Human managers (who are good at their jobs) bring a little Bedside Manner, a modicum of compassion to Human Resource Allocation that will soon be seen as a luxury compared to low-cost, fully-automated Human Resource Monitoring & Reinforcement Systems
Good managers shield their reports from a lot of the crap that is inevitable at scale in a large organization. A large company can't just have individuals and small self-managed teams go off and do whatever they feel like. And, yes, if you just cut out all the intermediate layers, the VP with 150 direct reports will simply have to resort to automation based on simplistic metrics. "You didn't produce enough lines of c…
Literally all of those layers including the VP could be replaced right now.
All those jobs do is push emails rewording other emails to other people pushing email.
I feel like eventually every company will have a single a figurehead that’s fed instructions but believes it’s original thought and is told by the AI what a great idea they just had all day long.
A bit like the Captain from Wall-E.
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#765Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…
> In essence what has happened in software development is that the level of abstraction has gone up while the machine has taken over more and more of the nitty gritty details. From punchcards, to assembly, to COBOL, C, Perl, Java, Python, Erlang, Rust. I feel like there's currently a movement towards slightly lower abstraction, or at least simplified, consistent APIs, less magic. The rise of Go and Rust are examples…
I've also been considering the concept of "AI-amenable" programming languages recently, and I think it would be quite an interesting twist of history if lisps became once again the AI languages of choice because of their simplicity. Going from the language to write AIs in to the language that AIs write.
Fwiw, GPT doesn't seem to write Clojure as well as Python or JS or even C++, which is obviously much more syntactically complex. That said there is probably an order of magnitude more training data for all of those.
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#766Earlier quoted context omitted.
I completely disagree because of how this batch of AI learns. It learns by studying what is currently available as opposed to supplying something new. Bad developers on the way of becoming obsolete by AI will see drastic improvements from the thing that’s about to replace them. Otherwise it’s slightly better intellisence integrated in your editor. The difference is that bad developers are primarily concerned with lit…
I think a lot of "good" developers making this very argument will be in for a nasty surprise when they find out which bucket they're actually in
I don’t doubt that at all. “Good” is relative to something but what that thing is often makes for a poor quality of measure with few samples compared.
The are objective ways to measure competence in software but nobody wants to use them. Most people don’t want to discover just how good they aren’t.
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#767Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's literally what the language model is. It might correctly generate a solution to a "novel" question/problem that is sufficiently close to one with an existing, known answer. But then again it might not. And in software development, it's going to take someone who is knowledgeable to tell the difference. I think software engineering is going to look very different in a few years, and likely be a smaller field wit…
"One of the biggest differences that we saw from GPT-3.5 to GPT-4 was this emergent ability to reason better," Mira Murati, OpenAI's Chief Technology Officer, told ABC News." https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/openai-ceo-sam-altman-ai-r... I neither know how LLMs work nor how our brains work. And I don't know what could be parallel between these two. For my very very limited knowledge of how properties can emerge from…
Any “emergent reasoning” produced by these LLMs is almost certainly coincidence (i.e. the long tail of the probability curve, e.g., like monkeys randomly banging out Shakespeare’s Othello).
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#768Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…
Also, people-people don't want to use no-code tools. They want to hire people to do that for them. If using the tool is really simple, the salaries will go down, but it won't remove the demand for "translators". For the tinkerer, no-code tools are (probably) great, but if successful, even tinkerers will hire managers who will hire translators.
Two members of my family have now called me on the phone a few times to ask me to ask GPT something, after I convinced them of its value and after I had them make their own account. They are absolutely smart enough to ask it but are very much non-tech people.
There is definitely a tendency of some people to avoid tech at all costs if they can and trust in "tech people." Fine with me, I ask them about my people questions often enough.
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#769People will always want things cheaper and faster (value) - looking at AI as "chat" or textbox or AI autocomplete is wrong imo - companies will come that utilise AI to deliver things faster and cheaper - you quote $10k and 1 month, we will do it in $1k 1 week - first to go is low value difficult to automate work which is already offshored and commoditised (basic webdev, graphic design) - later the middle tier of work…
A counterargument to this would be that llm's are also an incredible learning tool. If you don't understand something, just ask.
I envy the speed with which a younger version of myself will be able to pick things up.
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#770Earlier quoted context omitted.
Citation needed for you!
Sure. A few below but far from exhaustive: - https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.07528 - https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.10403 - https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.11903 - https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.13382 There are also literally hundreds of articles and tweet threads about it. Moreover, as I said, you can test many of my claims above directly using readily available LLMs. GP has a much harder defense. They have to prove that despite all…
Thanks for the links, but yeah - I would not give much credit to tweets and blog posts. Often this "emergent" behavior is not that. These are not experts.