The global fertility rate is falling

Post by ThrowawayR2 » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 3:40 PM UTC

majewsky wrote: post #694

menybuvico wrote: post #634

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The irony in all this is that fertility tends to drop amongst people considered successful and (mostly) progressive, meaning that conservative unsuccessful people will out-breed them. One would think that the logical thing to do if you're rich and successful would be to have many kids, and see if it's due to genetic factors.

> The irony in all this is that fertility tends to drop amongst people considered successful and (mostly) progressive, meaning that conservative unsuccessful people will out-breed them. If this argument really holds, why has the world become so much more progressive over the last two centuries?

Post by corysama » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 3:41 PM UTC

slim wrote: post #389

corysama wrote: post #90

This article is quite exasperated, but doesn't say much. I'm far from an expert in this area, but here's what I've read elsewhere: We're quickly moving from the population explosion problem to the population implosion problem. No one planned it or made it happen. But, it looks like we're not actually going to overflow the planet with people standing shoulder to shoulder. Instead, the problem we're facing moving forwa…

No one planned it or made it happen are you serious ? UN planned this since the 70' there's policies and support for developing countries at the global scale for implementing birth control

Post by Aunche » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 3:45 PM UTC

sqrt17 wrote: post #532

mjburgess wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is care-jobs are incredibly low productivity. The reason a worker today is paid more than 100 years ago is, essentially, just that they can produce/transact with more people at once. A nurse "should" be paid what they were 100 years ago, as the number of transactions hasn't changed. The only reason they aren't is due to competition from productive sectors. But those productive sectors need to exist! In a…

according to that logic, lawyers, CEOs, line managers and HR should be paid what they were 100 years ago, as they do not directly produce. They're not, it's effectively through competition with other jobs that their pay is determined. Intuitively, "pay according to productivity" makes sense, but productivity gains have far outpaced the pay of workers while the money went elsewhere. Let's face the reality that product…

Post by stallmanite » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 3:52 PM UTC

scarmig wrote: post #212

ThrowawayR2 wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> " A society where younger workers having to pay taxes 2x higher or more than they do today... " Most likely social welfare programs for the elderly will simply be allowed to collapse. Nothing will motivate the young to vote like having their paychecks eaten away. I feel bad for young people graduating now; if they're not able to save the _entire_ cost of their own retirement over the course of their career, they ar…

Retired voters, and voters approaching retirement, will fight denture and nail against that. The likely result is some claw back of benefits for them, but young workers would still carry a much heavier tax burden than the retired class did, preempting their own retirement savings. That causes them to defer or forego marriage and children as well, causing a continuing downward spiral. Without an attestupa or genuine e…

Post by vorpalhex » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 3:54 PM UTC

bananaface wrote: post #430

nostromo wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit like hearing a successful startup founder speak about the joys of success. It’s absolutely correct, but it’s also just one data point. Keep in mind, most of the lonely old people you see have children. And I’m not sure it’s a good, caring thing to tell childless people that they will be lonely in old age, because it need not be true.

Only on Hacker News would someone post a response this patronising and argumentative. I think the point he made was fine, and I'm way glad to have heard his story. It was lovely.