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Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

bbc.com

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Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#751

Post by coldtea »

hef19898 wrote: post #746
coldtea wrote: post #709

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, let's just wait for a million dead like they expect in Italy then... that would be a proper, timid, reaction...

Please, stop throwing around totally fake numbers like that.

Italy has a population of 60 million.

The WHO reports "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died".

If 50% the population gets infected, and if it's not 3.4% but "just" 3% mortality rate, that's already 1 million dead.

And according to some experts, even 70% infection rate is predicted.

Second, this 3.4% percentage of deceased patients, is at the early stages, with fewer patients and preventive measures (so that most patients that needed hospital treatment got it).

A 10% or more of patients of COVID-19 will need hospital treatment and ICU. As the number of patients rise, there wont be as many ICU units (and doctors are getting infected themselves at an alarming rate).

In Italy with ~ 7000 cases, "hospitals are scrambling to increase the number of beds available in intensive care units. Some have closed entire wards to dedicate them to severe coronavirus cases. Others have transformed operating rooms into intensive care units. Doctors are working grueling shifts to cover for colleagues who fall ill".

Let's put it this way, they have 9,172 cases and 463 deaths.

Now imagine with 100,000 or 1,000,000 cases -- still very far from the predicted 70%.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#752

Post by RobertoG »

roenxi wrote: post #724
hef19898 wrote: post #657

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, so you suggest every single person in Germany to be quarantined. Whether they have symptoms or not. Now that's what I call an over reaction.

We have months of data now. If the virus gets out of control; countries find that out because the hospital system gets overwhelmed and they have to bring in a hard quarantine. Countries have to overreact to the circumstances that they are confronted with because in a week the situation will be much worse if they don't. The only options are to overreact when everything seems fine or to overreact when the hospitals are…

I don't think you are using "overreact" properly. If it's the appropriate response, then, by definition, is not overreacting.

In line with what you are saying, a problem, is that the proper reaction, if works, looks like an overreaction later. So, politically, there is an incentive to do nothing.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#753

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg »

llamataboot wrote: post #460
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does everyone keep saying stopping it is impossible. It is literally happening in front of us in China.

There aren't many countries with the capabilities of China in that regard. Though ones that get out front much earlier (SKorea, Japan mostly so far, Vietnam) seem to be doing alright

Honestly I think stopping this thing is a huge challenge. But I think it is a challenge most countries are up to, once they care about it enough. But it seems like no one is very good at responding to this virus before it becomes a crisis.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#754

Post by coldtea »

johnchristopher wrote: post #735
coldtea wrote: post #709

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, let's just wait for a million dead like they expect in Italy then... that would be a proper, timid, reaction...

That's a huge number. Where did you get it from ?

See my answer to the parent comment.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#755

Post by tomnj »

jonplackett wrote: post #718
cm2187 wrote: post #552

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am struggling to reconcile this story with the numbers of deaths so far vs the number of deaths in any given year. A french infectious disease specialist mentioned that 2017 had been a bad year for infectious respiratory diseases in France, with over 60,000 additional deaths in winter, to the point that it affected life expectancy tables [1]. I don’t remember any mention of hospitals being overwhelmed and doing war…

Remember with Flu, the doctors and nurses can't get it, and can't spread it. The danger with this is that all the doctors get sick/quarantined and then no-one gets treated.

Anyone can get the flu, even those with flu shots

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#756

Post by JoeAltmaier »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #753
llamataboot wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There aren't many countries with the capabilities of China in that regard. Though ones that get out front much earlier (SKorea, Japan mostly so far, Vietnam) seem to be doing alright

Honestly I think stopping this thing is a huge challenge. But I think it is a challenge most countries are up to, once they care about it enough. But it seems like no one is very good at responding to this virus before it becomes a crisis.

Honestly we are more careful with cattle and pets, than with people. It's going to be hard to change the entitled attitudes. Nobody can stop me from visiting anywhere I want!

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#757

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #756
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #753

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly I think stopping this thing is a huge challenge. But I think it is a challenge most countries are up to, once they care about it enough. But it seems like no one is very good at responding to this virus before it becomes a crisis.

Honestly we are more careful with cattle and pets, than with people. It's going to be hard to change the entitled attitudes. Nobody can stop me from visiting anywhere I want!

It's going to be hard but if Italy is any guide we will manage it after it becomes a catastrophe.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#758

Post by Yetanfou »

This is supposed to be a trasnscription of some Whatsapp calls between medical personnel in the north and south of Italy where the northerners try to update the southerners on the situation

https://files.catbox.moe/3ns6c1.mp4

This file is several weeks old by now, a search on the 'net finds a number of pages where the link is mentioned (including one from the 21st of januari 2020 - according to Google that is - hoax alert? if so a prescient hoax in that they knew it would start in the north of Italy).

This being the internet it it hard to ascertain the veracity of the thing. If it is for real it sounds way worse than e.g. the situation on the cruise ship 'Diamond Princess' which saw 700+ infections but only a few deaths as far as I know, nor does it tally with the situation in Korea. In the (supposed) transcription they talk about a larger number of cases in younger people without existing medical conditions, again something which goes counter the current narrative. One of the possible explanations given for the higher mortality in Italy (~4%) compared to Korea (~0.7%) is that Italy has a generally older population (the oldest in Europe) but that does not explain the mentioned incidence of cases among younger people. Of course the way countries count 'cases' can also differ so there is another possible explanation but this still does not explain those cases among younger people.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#759

Post by mytherin »

plutonorm wrote: post #730
hef19898 wrote: post #644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So doctors work overtime during situations like this. Surprise. My problem with these reports is that they have a tendency to spread fear, especially the way the are presented. They also undermine trust in public information which only makes it harder to implement measures, in turn making it harder to contain the virus.

We need more fear, not less. Fear will save lives.

Not necessarily. Excess panic can easily create more destruction than the disease ever would have. Look at the hospital that was burned down in Iran because of misinformation about the coronavirus.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#760

Post by kaiabwpdjqn »

nradov wrote: post #370
kaiabwpdjqn wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is that medical staff are trained to respond to many things. Training newbies to respond to one thing would probably be easy and fast. Especially if most people just need fluids, oxygen, and aspirin. Burning out doctors to maximize survival rates up front is... bad

Aspirin isn't an effective treatment.

what is the treatment then?
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