741–750 of 1001 posts
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Unless you use robinhood which has no transactions fees.
> robinhood It's easy to have no fees if your customers can't make transactions. To be less snarky, I'd avoid them if you're trying to time the markets.
Slightly unrelated, but why does the stock market close each night? If trading was open 24/7, we wouldn't have large spikes like this every morning. We'd only have them when certain news is announced.
So we can use garbage-collected languages in trading systems without turning on the garbage collector - just collect it all at the end of the trading day. I'm joking but this is a real technique.
http://tooslowexception.com/zero-garbage-collector-for-net-c...
If I was building something that was on a short fuse like this, I'd also be using structs and stack allocation as much as humanly possible before leaning onto the "having tons of physical memory" crutch. I feel like virtual memory could cover your ass for a small period of time before the whole thing started to grind to a halt.
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Okay thats fine, but who implements/decides these circuit breakers ? And what purpose to they serve only to limit a mass sell off ? Nice point about only 2 daily. But still seems crazy.
Mass sell offs tend to create unorderly markets, which is not beneficial for anyone. The concept was introduced in US equities after the ‘87 crash, but was only consistently implemented for NYSE-listed stocks. In ‘13 these were made consistent and market wide (thus MWCB), set against a widely published value of the S&P (so that the control was predictable; thus how it executed today). FYI, there are also bidirectiona…
So are we saying the market will be perpetual because it's not allowed to fail ?
At what point does the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_efficient not apply ?
If it's manipulated, the efficient seems moot.
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The error, actually, is in the first part rather than the second. We don't know where it will be in a day or a year, but there's good reason to think we know where it will be in ten years: about twice where it is now. It might be only 1.5x or it might be 3x, but it's not very likely to fall very far outside of that range. Given that, if you have ten years to wait before you need your money, it's as good a place as an…
The counterexamples that have been brought up elsewhere on this post are Gold (still below 40 year high) and the Nikkei (still below 30 year high).
A better index is the Topix, and that’s available in a total return (and net return) variant (that is, including dividends before (or net of) taxes)).
A fairly low dividend yield would suffice to make the total return index exceed the 1990’s high by now. (It’s not trivial to find the data to confirm this for free.)
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The efficient market hypothesis would like a word with you.
The efficient market hypothesis is that markets are efficient to present public information. If markets were efficient to the present value of the future price at all times, then there would be no such thing as insider trading and hedge funds would all lose money. You can make money by making inferences about present facts, or taking views on future occurrences.
But professionals have advantages that are difficult to match for small-time investors like: single-digit millisecond latency with exchanges, specialized hardware, sophisticated back-testing systems, proprietary data sources (market data, weather, retail data, etc. any data source you can thing of, some hedge fund is buying it), 60+ hours a week to work on their strats, qualified peers to bounce ideas, volume-discounted broker fees, etc.
Even then, professionals beat the market pretty inconsistently. Many people, including professionals, mistake luck for skill. So I think skepticism is justified when people online claim to have strategies that beat the market.
If you are one of the few who can actually consistently come up with strategies that beat the market, unless you are already rich, it might be worthwhile to work at a hedge fund and take a cut of the profits from trading large sums of other people's money instead of trading your own.
I notice that there are many commenters here offering opinions on the future price of equities. Note that nobody has any idea where equity prices will be in one day, never mind one year or ten years' time. As a retail investor (i.e. not extremely rich), you can't gain any advantage over the market that overcomes your transaction costs. So relax. There's nothing to do here. If you're contributing to a retirement fund,…
"There's nothing to do here." Maybe. I imagine it's a trigger for some people to review their investment mix. Not saying panic sell at this particularly bad moment, but downturns are an obvious heads up for people that assumed everything would constantly rise. Changing your mix for future deposits might not be a bad idea if your current mix is higher risk than it should be for your age.
So if equities are down 20% but bonds are stable (or better!) you end up selling bonds high and buying equities while they are cheaper.
If you didn't plan ahead, you shouldn't be making plans now. If you have cash or other assets with less growth potential, it may be a good idea to sell some to buy equities. But before you do that, zoom out and look at 5 years of index fund prices. This 20% correction reaches back to about December 2018. But has not appreciably negated the growth between 2009 and then!
I notice that there are many commenters here offering opinions on the future price of equities. Note that nobody has any idea where equity prices will be in one day, never mind one year or ten years' time. As a retail investor (i.e. not extremely rich), you can't gain any advantage over the market that overcomes your transaction costs. So relax. There's nothing to do here. If you're contributing to a retirement fund,…
I used to subscribe to these investment talking points and believed in the US equity market. I adopted these attitudes from reading Warren Buffett, index fund, financial advice. These are sound principles. I occasionally revisit value investing, dollar-cost averaging. But times are changing. The US equity market will unlikely to deliver exceptional returns. Buffett may have a strong bias since he started his investin…
I notice that there are many commenters here offering opinions on the future price of equities. Note that nobody has any idea where equity prices will be in one day, never mind one year or ten years' time. As a retail investor (i.e. not extremely rich), you can't gain any advantage over the market that overcomes your transaction costs. So relax. There's nothing to do here. If you're contributing to a retirement fund,…
I used to subscribe to these investment talking points and believed in the US equity market. I adopted these attitudes from reading Warren Buffett, index fund, financial advice. These are sound principles. I occasionally revisit value investing, dollar-cost averaging. But times are changing. The US equity market will unlikely to deliver exceptional returns. Buffett may have a strong bias since he started his investin…
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> As a retail investor (i.e. not extremely rich), you can't gain any advantage over the market that overcomes your transaction costs. Sure you can. You develop a system, learn how to find information, and make good predictions of future human behavior. You should learn the ins and outs of the product you're trading.
Very few active fund managers can consistently beat their indexes. Why do you believe you would be better over a long period of time? Vanguard Study of Actively Managed Funds vs Index Performance: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGIDX.pdf
The contrapositive of your argument is that anyone who is holding cash outperformed the S&P today. Though true, it sounds silly to say that someone who goes about his day with a $100 in his wallet is outperforming the market, no?
In a disperse market, single stocks chosen correctly will outperform the index. In a correlated bull market, the index will outperform.
We are not exactly in a bull market right now.