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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#731
post #471
post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

I've been told the following (obviously negative) narrative. Can someone verify/refute some of these? I've put (?) next to questionable claims. 1. Twitter is purchased with debt 2. Debt is transferred to xAI via acquisition of X/Twitter 3. Debt is further transferred to SpaceX via acquisition of xAI 4. SpaceX IPO offered at extreme valuation 5. Index fund inclusion rules waived for SpaceX IPO: profitability requireme…

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#732

None of these companies have any MOAT. LLMs are getting better at a rapid pace and in a year or two, Chinese LLMs should easily catch up with the best of the models. Models have kind of reached a saturation point and that’s why OpenAI and Anthropic are doing an IPO now. Because a year down the line when their lead diminishes even more, they would be worth lesser money. SpaceX has clients to put payloads into space, b…

I mean sure, for LLMs, but:

> It is going to have competition in the future and will lose customers.

Is that not true for everything.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#733

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because 5 days is not enough for the market to discover the price of SpaceX. And the rules were changed so the float is weighted as if it was much much larger than it is.

Are you sure? It discovers it within seconds following a bad earnings report. It seems hard to know right now whether five days might actually be sufficient or not, seeing as the cat is out of the bag about how unprofitable and debt laden this trillion dollar enterprise is.

If price is fully discovered right after ER then you will see price stabilized right after ER. But in fact post ER prices can wildly differ from the next minute, next day and next week price. It’s speculation and anticipation.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#734

I don’t understand why there is so much pushback and skepticisim about SpaceX. They actually have a functioning product, a market where they sell the product and virtually no competition at their pricepoint.

I just had this thought: This is the story of the Great Western Desert eXploration Railway Company. Let's call it WestX for simplicity. They are building a 2000 miles railway line from the east coast into the great western desert. There is nothing there in this desert, but its a great place to set up antennas. The place is called Sunshine Plateau. Unfortunately, there is also absolutely nothing on the entire 2000 mil…

No california. Sounds like Australia

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#735
post #663

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class action is the average person's best bet here. You should expect to get $.75 while the lawyers make big money.

Hopefully you didn't accidentally waive your right to class action by signing something at some point in the last 15 years that survived multiple buy-outs to land in the hands of some company tertiary to the lawsuit.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#736
post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Irrational exuberance rarely transitions to a rational drawn down. The minute the first selfish-actor flood-liquidates, everyone else will too. That's now runs work.

but this isn't "irrational exuberance", literally everyone I know paying and kind of attention has "rational dread".

In my opinion the amount of money poured into these companies is the definition of irrational exuberance. And even if you want to call it dread, once they start to deflate people will panic and flee.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#737
post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Irrational exuberance rarely transitions to a rational drawn down. The minute the first selfish-actor flood-liquidates, everyone else will too. That's now runs work.

But where else will people put their money?

That's not the problem, the problem is when they take it out of these companies, where it goes after that is irrelevant. Once the exodus starts prices will plummet and lots of people will lose a lot of value.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#738

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anthropic is profitable unlike OpenAI though. Sure they'll owe a lot of money for probably decades, but if they remain profitable moving forward, it will be worthwhile.

The question still remains whether they will be defensively profitable when things settle down. I don't think open weight models are likely to overtake or match frontier models in the next year or so when it comes to doing the most difficult tasks, but I do expect a lot of people who are currently funneling wheelbarrows of money to Anthropic to realize that they can achieve the vast majority of things they are doing…

That is 100% valid, and I don't disagree.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#739
post #721

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know about your country, but in Sweden you can choose where part of your investment money (I think 40%) gets allocated. On top of that you can choose where 100% of your private pensions are allocated. Also some EU pension funds are already in the process of divesting from US markets...

> Also some EU pension funds are already in the process of divesting from US markets... And where will they go to?

maybe they will sell our pensions to BRICS :')

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#740

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't AI routinely making significant mistakes in analyzing medical imaging?

My understanding is that it’s better than doctors themselves. But it’s probably the same as with autonomous driving: the bar isn’t just “be as good as humans”, it’s “be flawless”.

Last time I checked thoroughly (roughly two years ago), AI (in the form of small ML models) mostly outperformed radiologists in areas where the gold standard is "one level" above imagining wise. By that I mean that you train a model to detect on an X-ray what would normally need a CT. Or train it to see on a non-contrast CT what would normally need contrast or an MRI, or biopsy, and so on.

Essentially the cutting edge reaches up to 99% of human performance on the task it is trained, which is good enough for triage but not for a final diagnosis. However, magic sometimes happens when you train a model to detect something, which you already know is there, on an examination that is cheaper, faster or less invasive than the human"gold standard". Conveniently, this dataset exists since it's common to first do a cheap examination like an X-ray, and then escalate if nothing is found (or if something is found that you want to see better, or a number of other possibilities).

Examples of AI outperforming humans like this includes AI detecting sacral fractures on x-rays better than radiologists (who normally take a CT to conclusively exclude it), detecting potential precursors to pancreatic cancer on non-contrast CTs (where contrast or an MRI is usually required) and detecting an occluded coronary artery on an ECG without the archetypical "ST-elevation changes".

See the link below for references: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9478257/ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02640-w https://rebelem.com/a-winning-hand-in-cardiology/

So AI, as a general rule, doesn't usually match or exceed the upper bound of the "gold standard" medical performance. But it tends to carry the quality of the upper bound downwards towards the faster, less expensive and invasive methods. In some cases, like in the case of EKGs, that's huge. In some cases it saves time, in some cases it decreases miss rates from tired radiologists or triages their review feed. And in some cases it's not very useful.

LLMs doesn't come close to specialized radiology models at the moment, because LLMs are more about applying knowledge than creating new correlations. Of course that's also hugely useful, but that's a bit of a different topic to unpack.

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