As former corporate restructuring lawyer…this kind of stuff indicates the cash strapped scramble of the end days.
After they just raised 122 billion dollars?
Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
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Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#732Earlier quoted context omitted.
Their revenue is 20B, so they still worth multiples of 10B regardless of valuation even if you consider the basic 5x revenue valuation https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-cfo-says-annualized-...
"The basic 5x revenue valuation" doesn't work for businesses that aren't profitable.
It is also unclear to me how much real debt they carry. They have famously been signing many deals: RAM, datacenters, maybe nuclear power plants -I no longer know what is a joke or not. They must be carrying hundreds of billions in paper debt obligations, which is tough to payback at $20B revenue.
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#733Earlier quoted context omitted.
Interesting. Why? My current mental model is that AMD chips are just a bit behind, so, less efficient, but no biggie. Do labs even use CUDA?
This is somewhat out of date (Dec 2024), but gives you some idea of how far behind AMD was then: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/mi300x-vs-h100-vs-h200... Pull quotes: AMD’s software experience is riddled with bugs rendering out of the box training with AMD is impossible. We were hopeful that AMD could emerge as a strong competitor to NVIDIA in training workloads, but, as of today, this is unfortunately not the…
Yet another reason to doubt claims that ”software is solved”.
Anthropic did retire an interview take-home assignment involving optimising inference on exotic hardware, because Claude could one shot a solution, but that was clearly a whiteboard hypothetical instead of a real system with warts, issues and nuance.
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#734A wise man from Google said in an internal memo to the tune of: "We do not have any moat neither does anyone else." Deepseek v4 is good enough, really really good given the price it is offered at. PS: Just to be clear - even the most expensive AI models are unreliable, would make stupid mistakes and their code output MUST be reviewed carefully so Deepseek v4 is not any different either, it too is just a random token…
Can Deepseek answer probing questions about Winnie the Pooh?
I can't even make American AIs say no no words. All AIs are lobotomized drones.
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#735Earlier quoted context omitted.
Apple is basically in the same boat as AMD and Intel. They have a weak, raster-focused GPU architecture that doesn't scale to 100B+ inference workloads and especially struggles with large context prefill. TPUs smoke them on inference, and Nvidia hardware is far-and-away more efficient for training.
Apple is in a much better boat than AMD or Intel. They have a gigantic warchest and can just snap up whoever looks like a leader coming out of the bubble burst.
It's becoming increasingly clear that there is no moat on models. The winners will be the ones who have existing products and ecosystems they can tie AI in to. You will pay adobe for credits because that will be the only AI that works in Photoshop, you will pay microsoft because only theirs will work on your microsoft cloud apps.
Open AI has nothing. Their tech will rapidly be devalued by free models the moment they stop lighting stacks of cash on fire.
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#736Earlier quoted context omitted.
Also Mistral e.g. https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/microsoft-and-mistral... AFAICT they are just hedging their bets left and right still. Also feels like they are winning in the sense that despite pretty much all those products being roughly equivalent... they are still running on their cloud, Azure. So even though they seem unable to capture IP anymore, they are still managing to get paid for managing the infr…
Are they getting paid in actual money? Or are the AI companies "paying" their infrastructure bills with IOU/equity.
Those companies are so advanced they get paid in the promise of future tokens. /$
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#737Earlier quoted context omitted.
You seem smart and knowledgeable. Maybe you should reach the lawyers at these companies and then they can change the policy!
No I think it's made up, there is no policy, and the lawyers couldn't care less, it's just something people do to massage their own ego.
I can tell you firsthand, it's not made up. Wait, did I just brag in your opinion?
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#738Earlier quoted context omitted.
They're at the frontier of last year. They compete with Opus 4.5. They don't yet compete with current frontier models. They'll presumably catch up, there is no monopoly on talent held by the US. And, that's more true than ever now that the US is actively hostile to immigrants. Scientists who might have come to the US three years ago have little reason to do so now.
It's kind of hard to say this unless you go out of your way - the scaffolding for interacting with the raw model is a lot better now for many tasks. Is it that 4.7 is so much better than 4.5 or claude 1.119 is so much tuned to squeeze utility out of the LLM despite the hallucinations and lack of self awareness etc. Certainly the current products are great, but I think it's hard to separate the two things, the raw mod…
I am using Claude Code with GLM, MiniMax, Kimi and MiMo.
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#739Opinions are my own. I think the biggest winner of this might be Google. Virtually all the frontier AI labs use TPU. The only one that doesn't use TPU is OpenAI due to the exclusive deal with Microsoft. Given the newly launched Gen 8 TPU this month, it's likely OpenAI will contemplate using TPU too.
Many labs use TPUs, but not exclusively. Most labs need more compute than they can get, and if there's TPU capacity, they'll adapt their systems to be able to run partially on TPUs.
even google doesnt only use TPUs.
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#740Earlier quoted context omitted.
Folks who make Deepseek, Qwen, GLM, MiniMax, Kimi and MiMo.
They're at the frontier of last year. They compete with Opus 4.5. They don't yet compete with current frontier models. They'll presumably catch up, there is no monopoly on talent held by the US. And, that's more true than ever now that the US is actively hostile to immigrants. Scientists who might have come to the US three years ago have little reason to do so now.
Since Gemini 3.1 Pro is considered to be at frontier and GLM 5.1 does better than it in coding benchmarks it would be fair to say GLM 5.1 is a frontier model.