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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#731

Post by three_seagrass »

cik2e wrote: post #565

This isn’t a typical recession and cannot be compared to anything in the past. The economy has been effectively put on pause. So the dynamics of the duration and recovery will be totally different than anything we’ve seen in the past. I’m optimistic about a much quicker recovery than the last one.

It depends on how much toxic debt accumulates during the pause - that is historically a large factor in causing recessions.

We have 20%+ of the workforce losing their income (many who are living paycheck to paycheck) as well as many B2C businesses closing, so we're accumulating debt that will never be paid off.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#732

Post by valachio »

Ensorceled wrote: post #58
lmilcin wrote: post #34

Nah, it signals exactly nothing. If there was no Coronavirus, then maybe. With Coronavirus it is just as likely that the economy is going to rebound once the worst of the virus passes. People stopped buying stuff but rest assured, they will make up for it when they finally can.

A LOT of people lost jobs, a lot of business will be bankrupt. When things recover, a lot of people will be sinking money into late rent payments and credit card bills, not spending. A lot of people cleared off their credit cards of anything not critical. Will I go back to the gym? Maybe. Will I turn back on Amazon Prime or half the other subscriptions I cancelled? Nope. Will I eat out as much now that I've had a mon…

I wish I ate healthier during this period of time... Unfortunately I'm finding it impossible to order a grocery delivery right now (I use Walmart). So I just end up ordering Uber Eats twice a day.

I cringe when I think about how much money I'm spending on food and how unhealthy I'm eating. But I can't stop, I'm addicted to food delivery wtf.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#733

Post by dzonga »

Server6 wrote: post #309
eppp wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The used car market has been inflated for years. 100k+ mile vehicles selling for over half their new price makes no sense to me.

It's because of the long term 72-84 month loans. People are trading in used cars for close to the loan payoff amounts - which is still pretty high.

people can't afford cars, simple as that. otherwise loan terms wouldn't be 84 months.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#734

Post by [deleted] »

q92z8oeif wrote: post #598
cultus wrote: post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The folks participating in the protest are not at all lower on the socioeconomic latter, but predominately middle class. Black Americans, who tend to be poorer and less secure, support the lockdown at a higher rate than whites or other racial groups [0] (at least in Florida). Whites have the least support for a lockdown, but most still oppose reopening. Lastly, at least some of the protests were funded by the DeVos f…

Fact that US still have to break down so much into racial cohorts in polls is weird. And offer nothing of value other than the generalizations like "who tend to be poorer" that doesn't help the discussion nor analysis. What do you do with this information in this context? How about breaking down by religion or something else that at least points to what kind of media/message the group is more exposed to? or something…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#735

Post by klmadfejno »

inscionent wrote: post #178
dudul wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this post is why I get so infuriated when I see all the blue-checkmarks on Twitter, calling people who want to go back to work "Selfish, stupid, idiot, etc". People don't want lockdown to stop because they need to go to their hairdresser, or because they need to go hangout at the pub, or whatever idiotic reason these privilege a-holes put in their tweets. People want to get back to work , because they need money…

We can print more money right. Money isn't real. Death and this virus are. How about we just take care of those who need taking care of during this disaster. How about we put all national efforts to keep the lights on, providing safe housing and keeping the food supply chains intact. Instead we are worried about corporate quarterly profits and when the Ruby Tuesday can reopen, because somehow serving burgers for $3/h…

> Instead we are worried about corporate quarterly profits and when the Ruby Tuesday can reopen, because somehow serving burgers for $3/hr plus tips is going to secure that person's financial situation.

Man, fuck off. This is so god damn entitled. Writing off someone's income as negligible because it's already in the realm of poverty anyway is so callous. Taking care of people's needs is hard. You can't just hand wave it with band-aid money. No matter how much money you allocate, people, especially the poor, are going to suffer if their livelihoods are destroyed. And it's even worse for people in poor countries that depend on exporting to the US for money for things like food. I don't give a shit about Ruby Tuesday's bottom line. I care that Ruby Tuesday's being closed means long term economic harm. The real world is complicated. The existing system is horribly far from perfect. But keeping it turned off is going to make things so much worse. Asserting that people who recognize this are thinking only of the corporate profits is incredibly disingenuous. We have printed astonishing amounts of money to ease this situation. It's not a viable solution.

My local restaurants are down to: McDonalds, Burger King, and Panera Bread. Everything else is shuttered. It will take years to recover from this, and in many locations, just won't, as wealth concentrates further into fewer areas.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#736

Post by mixmastamyk »

qppo wrote: post #325
Server6 wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's because of the long term 72-84 month loans. People are trading in used cars for close to the loan payoff amounts - which is still pretty high.

GM had 0% interest for 84 month loans on their trucks for awhile there. something is very wrong with the lending market when it makes sense to give people free money.

Talk to the federal reserve.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#737

Post by 0134340 »

cactus2093 wrote: post #516
_bxg1 wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. There is deep rot at the heart of the American system, and something is going to have to give. The economy has been broken for the lower 50% for a long time now. This course is unsustainable. I try not to get explicitly political on here, but Bernie Sanders was, as far as I can see, our last shot at reversing the trend from within the current system.…

I mostly agree with what you're saying, but disagree about Bernie. Many of his biggest policies are still just trying to cover the rot with a coat of paint. Healthcare too expensive? Just have the government cover the bill. College too expensive? Same thing. Workers not paid enough? Raise the minimum wage. All very blunt, simplistic reactions, that ignore the complexities of the real world. Getting rid of the rot req…

Bernie isn't trying to solve a problem, more correct it. Why fault the people for trying to correct a problem that's more to their advantage when hospitals, to this day, still haven't tried to correct the problem of expenses. One shouldn't have to forego their home to pay for small surgical procedures. When people try to correct these things we get replies like yours saying you shouldn't correct them but leave them to the system to correct them. We have to realize the "system" won't inherently do these things, we the people as part of the system have to take measures to look out for ourselves also because the system won't do it for us.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#738

Post by kyuudou »

scottLobster wrote: post #403
ChrisRR wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still surprises me that America has such a culture of leasing cars they can't afford for hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a month. Here in the UK if you said you were going to buy a car, most people would instantly assume you mean second hand. There's not much of a culture of buying or leasing new cars here, and even less of leasing cars that you really can't afford (outside of petrolheads anyway)

As an American it surprises me. I'm in the top 13% in terms of income/household and I've never bought or leased a new car in my life. It's well known (at least to people I know) that if you want to save money you buy used, ideally with cash, although you can sometimes save a little money with financing if you get lucky. The issue seems to be in previous generations cars were more of a status symbol for many (as well…

Similar here and I leased a car once. Never again. Always used. There was a poster higher up the thread who flips cars that knows what they are talking about. You don't have to be at that level but just some common sense and research gets you a solid, clean used vehicle that you can depend on for years if you don't care about any ego shit and you take care of it. This and houses are our biggest impediments to real wealth as North Americans. We dump so much of our earned wealth that could be used to save and invest in our futures instead padding the pockets of car salesmen and banks.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#739

Post by register »

shiningdays wrote: post #662
jdhn wrote: post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. I doubt there will be any "unrest" beyond the protests.

> The only social unrest that has happened so far Keyword being "so far". In Italy, where people have been out of work for months, things are starting to get dicey. Here are some links: - [Sky News: Coronavirus: Italy becoming impatient with lockdown - and social unrest is brewing]( https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-italy-becoming-impati... ) - [The Guardian: Singing stops in Italy as fear and social unrest moun…

I am sorry to disappoint you but no, things are not starting to get dicey in Italy, at least not yet. I am italian and value that Guardian report as I value one written in "Novella 2000". Those reported are single episodes and UK journalism is trying to build a case out of nothing as happened other times in the past.

P.S: I live in Rome and here people are still singing. P.P.S: "Novella 2000" is the unquestionable italian king of trash gossip magazines.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#740

Post by vkou »

treis wrote: post #603
vkou wrote: post #546

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it shifts the burden from people who work for a living, to people who's living is worked for by other people. The former are far more important, and numerous than the latter. I eat butter, I don't eat dividends.

If you're a renter you live in a home that a landlord built or paid someone else to build. And if people stop paying rent then they stop paying people to build. Construction workers lose their jobs and our housing problems are made worse. And don't have any illusions about the rich losing here. Most units are owned by small time landlords who will be wiped out by a rent freeze. Those units will be gobbled up on the c…

> And if people stop paying rent then they stop paying people to build. Construction workers lose their jobs and our housing problems are made worse.

So what? They've already stopped paying people to build. Construction workers have lost their jobs already. While having to keep paying their rent, or mortgage.

This is a temporary disruption, and needs temporary, stop-gap measures to stop the bleeding. Nobody's advocating to stop all rents forever.

> And don't have any illusions about the rich losing here. Most units are owned by small time landlords who will be wiped out by a rent freeze.

1. No, they aren't. Most units are owned by real estate companies.

2. Couple it with a mortgage freeze, and none of them will be wiped out. You can, in fact, kick this can up the hill until it hits the capital markets...

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