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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#301

Post by ahi »

ceejayoz wrote: post #265
maram wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. Which subject can they study at school that they cannot study at home?

Some of them have essential workers as parents and are left unsupervised during the day. Some have parents ill equipped to assist them with school work those parents never completed themselves. (Hell, I went to college, and my kids' math work is a challenge.) Some have no access to internet. I saw an article the other day (I'm unfortunately having trouble Googling it up) that said some school districts have 15-20% st…

My son's school started remote classes this week. More than a third are missing in action. Naturally it is the third that benefited the most from the structure and support of school.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#302

Post by ISL »

usaar333 wrote: post #276
ISL wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A fair point. It is paradoxical that a sputtering economy can make equities worth more cheeseburgers, rather than fewer, but I see the logic. At some point, given the choice between a low-yielding equity and a cheeseburger, I'd rather have the cheeseburger.

Exactly. The thing people may also forget who have a long time horizon is that this is actually a bad thing. Returns are likely historically low going forward which is bad for your future retirement.

Thanks -- this is precisely why I post to HN. Other thoughtful perspectives are really valuable.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#303

Post by ashtonkem »

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

I strongly suspect that we’re already in a depression. And much like the last one, it’ll be a serious hammer blow to rural areas.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#304

Post by lm28469 »

baron_harkonnen wrote: post #257
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

Tech people will be hit much harder by this than they think. The STEM world is largely in denial because ultimately SV grew because of the last major recession. That won't be happening this time. Startups are having massive layoffs right now, and each week bring companies further and further down the chain lay people off. I strongly suspect we'll see more major layoffs next week. Most big tech companies are driven by…

> Startups

The problem with a lot of startups is that they aren't making a profit when everything is going fine, let alone during a world wide pandemic, sometimes for years.

I see it as a wake up call for tech. It will suck for many people but in the long run it might be positive for the industry.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#305

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #284
jariel wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market ostensibly has a much longer view of things. The word 'recession' is essentially meaningless without knowing the impetus for it. The 'outsourcing of Jobs to China' is a huge, permanent, secular shift that may affect stocks one way or another, but the 'coronavirus' is something I think business believes we will recover from quickly - for the most part. Tim Cooke told Trump he thinks it will be a 'v-shaped r…

How many people do you know who are going to buy the latest iPhone this year or next? I can tell you that among my acquaintances, that number is vastly lower than it was if I asked the same question in February. And that's assuming that everything with the virus goes as well as possible, which it isn't.

The number of people who say they're going to is vastly lower, certainly. But I don't think that people's attitudes during a mandatory stay at home order are reflective of what we'll actually do once it's clear the worst is behind us.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#306

Post by 3131s »

dudul wrote: post #158
spaceribs wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

blaming "Blue Checkmarks" for the fact that people are being victimized by capitalism during a pandemic makes me sick to my stomach. What a hopeless year this has been.

People victimized by capitalism (and I totally agree that this is the current situation btw) don't need to be called names or selfish, or idiots, by people who are not victimized. I'm blaming privileged people for lecturing and gaslighting people who are not as privileged.

I totally agree with you.

It seems like no one is understanding your point... yes, it's an absolutely terrible idea for people to go back to work right now, but if it's literally between that and going hungry (because you know your government won't do shit to help you), then it's no surprise that some people will want to go back to work out of sheer necessity. In fact I'd be shocked if most of these Silicon Valley tools would come to any different conclusion if they were actually in the same boat.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#307

Post by Aperocky »

lmilcin wrote: post #34

Nah, it signals exactly nothing. If there was no Coronavirus, then maybe. With Coronavirus it is just as likely that the economy is going to rebound once the worst of the virus passes. People stopped buying stuff but rest assured, they will make up for it when they finally can.

The whole market relies on consumer confidence and nothing else.

If the future is bleak, they won't have confidence, and cuts their spending, which reinforces the prophecy.

There's no way out of this loop except by massive government intervention. The great depression only ended because of WWII. Now, hopefully we don't go to war this time, maybe try going back to moon?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#308

Post by standardUser »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #239
standardUser wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Literally no one anywhere wants central planning, no one wants America to be anything like Venezuela, these are fevered fantasies of uninformed minds, so feel free to put these lines to bed permanently.

"Essential business" designations are central planning, and I've seen reasonably influential people argue that we could keep them going indefinitely if we had to.

Examples of central planning do not imply a centrally planned economy, just as examples of free markets do not imply a free market economy. Every nation on earth has a mixed economic system (except maybe North Korea?) so let's not waste any more time denying that fact.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#309

Post by Server6 »

eppp wrote: post #268
OldHand2018 wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Lenders and banks were supposed to start going easy on loans but ive had two emails and a phone call about the loan for my Silverado this month and wouldnt you know, the caller was excited to mention my stimulus check. Don't settle for this. My niece had her car repossessed 3 weeks ago. They said for $18k cash she could have it. We told them to pound sand. She's borrowing cars and getting rides, but next week she'l…

The used car market has been inflated for years. 100k+ mile vehicles selling for over half their new price makes no sense to me.

It's because of the long term 72-84 month loans. People are trading in used cars for close to the loan payoff amounts - which is still pretty high.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#310

Post by eppp »

standardUser wrote: post #206
metalliqaz wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also people who didn't lose their jobs but are now spooked and are going into save mode.

I'm still employed, but I have spent less money in April than any month of my adult life. Saving mode indeed.

Me too but that would be back to almost normal very quickly if the spread of the virus stopped. The hard work of stopping the spread is taking too long and is wasting the pain that we are causing.
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