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Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

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Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#721

Post by willy_k »

HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #549
aspenmartin wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Jensen argument that "oh we get them hooked on our technology and that will actually be better" is bullshit -- they would do the exact same thing they're doing now of building their own supply chains and compute power but be able to accelerate their progress in the meantime with US chips. It is worse in every way to sell them SOTA chips (or even previous generation chips). Of course they have ways around this --…

I don't know what you mean by the "quality" of NVIDIA. All the western AI accelerators, from NVIDIA, AMD, Google (TPU) and Amazon (Trainium) are made by TSMC, and their speed/density is only possible due to TSMC using EUV machines made by ASML (a dutch company). Without access to ASML EUV machines, the Chinese will be stuck on older less-dense chip manufacturing nodes, but in terms of building a cluster this is just…

There is a whole lot more to chip and GPU design than the silicon manufacturing itself

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#722

Post by Chyzwar »

slopinthebag wrote: post #645
Chyzwar wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because claude subscription tokens are cheaper than deepseek and friends. You have whole industry of people reselling Claude subscriptions in China. Can you comprehend than Anthropic is winning because is both cheap(subscriptions) and better SOTA. People are cheering China providers when I reality they would rugpull open weights the moment they are competive. China models are trash that why they are giving them away…

No, Claude subscription tokens are not cheaper than the Deepseek API. You are dead wrong on that.

My 7-day stats from the codeburn tool: $2,123.26 cost, 11,370 calls, 333 sessions, 96.7% cache hit. Breakdown: 4.5M in, 18.1M out, 2,084.9M cached, 66.6M written.

I spent $2,000 in tokens on my $200/month subscription in just one week. This also excludes heavy usage of Cowork and Claude Design.

Claude estimated that the same usage on DeepSeek Pro API would cost me $200 for the week. A month averages 4 weeks, so I can estimate that Claude is 4x cheaper than DeepSeek for me.

What are you basic your opinion ?

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#723

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

willy_k wrote: post #721
HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #549

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what you mean by the "quality" of NVIDIA. All the western AI accelerators, from NVIDIA, AMD, Google (TPU) and Amazon (Trainium) are made by TSMC, and their speed/density is only possible due to TSMC using EUV machines made by ASML (a dutch company). Without access to ASML EUV machines, the Chinese will be stuck on older less-dense chip manufacturing nodes, but in terms of building a cluster this is just…

There is a whole lot more to chip and GPU design than the silicon manufacturing itself

Sure, but the Chinese are plenty competent at processor design - it's the EUV manufacturing part they are lacking

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#724

Post by digitaltrees »

jmartrican wrote: post #707
digitaltrees wrote: post #667

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is. But cash expenditures can be modeled in the business economics. But depending on an unrelated party for a core capability is an existential threat. Imagine if every single computer your business runs on could be bricked without notice or a fallback. You’d go bankrupt within a day. That’s the signal this fiasco has sent. That being said, I am working on a federated / coop model that will allow smaller companies…

The concern would be the ever increasing cost of GPUs. I imagine to help mitigate the risk, having a setup where more GPU's can be added on, and the old ones can still be used (as new ones get added on) would make the endeavor more palatable. Vs. having to swap out old GPUs for new ones, because the money spent on the old ones is lost (or at least some of it is lost if you can find a way to resell them).

I was spending $3000 per month on AI and my team was restrained from using it because we don’t have that type of budget per person. Even $200 per person was a stretch. But we could buy enough hardware that it made sense per person

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#725

Post by slopinthebag »

Chyzwar wrote: post #722
slopinthebag wrote: post #645

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, Claude subscription tokens are not cheaper than the Deepseek API. You are dead wrong on that.

My 7-day stats from the codeburn tool: $2,123.26 cost, 11,370 calls, 333 sessions, 96.7% cache hit. Breakdown: 4.5M in, 18.1M out, 2,084.9M cached, 66.6M written. I spent $2,000 in tokens on my $200/month subscription in just one week. This also excludes heavy usage of Cowork and Claude Design. Claude estimated that the same usage on DeepSeek Pro API would cost me $200 for the week. A month averages 4 weeks, so I can…

Because my highest usage day with over 30,000,000 tokens was about $0.50.

Even at your numbers you get like $20 usage a week MAX. Actually it’s less but I can’t be arsed to do the math. 18,000,000 input tokens x $0.87 per million, is like $16. I don’t really understand the metrics that your program is producing.

But your numbers seem odd. I get much more input than output tokens, and almost all of them are cached. You having way more output tokens is either a non-agentic coding use case, or a harness issue.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#726

Post by PeterStuer »

SwellJoe wrote: post #436
PeterStuer wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear that often, but what does that even mean? I am a great proponent of open weights models. I do believe they are the only reason we have not stagnated into a collusion of halting (public) model releases. But exactly which point in time is z.ai compared to claude.ai? Consistently bring "6 months behind" in an exponentially acellerating evolution means the gap is growing exponentially wider, not constant.

"an exponentially acellerating evolution" Oh? Exponentially accelerating, huh? That's quite a surprise, to me.

Sure we can nitpick semantics, but how would you describe the evolution in GenAI SWE capability over the last 18 months?

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#727

Post by squidbeak »

burnerRhodov3 wrote: post #693
squidbeak wrote: post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe may face technological and economic challenges, but one thing it isn't suffering is 'an identity' crisis - except in the daydreams of right wing propagandists. The EU's identity is represented in its charter and the various treaties behind it. > Europe becoming more reliant on the Chinese is not the answer, and will, if continues, isolate the EU from the US There are sound reasons to avoid reliance on China, b…

Look, i've lived in Europe for years. My wife is from switzerland. But what's with this rhetoric? It's one thing if a democratically elected president who will be out in 2 years is something you hate on... but it's turned from that. It seems every European consintely berates us, from a fundamentally level now. I won't defend trump, but what has threatening annexation of greenland done? Billions in additional military…

> Nato membership requires 2% of GDP to be spent on military.

No, actually it isn't a condition of NATO membership to spend 2% on defense. This is a myth.

> It's one thing if a democratically elected president who will be out in 2 years is something you hate on... but it's turned from that. It seems every European consintely berates us, from a fundamentally level now.

Do you think that having experienced this treatment from a nation previously trusted as a friend and ally that Europe can sensibly revert to its old confidence in the USA? Sure the Democrats might win power in 2028, or even a reformed and sensible Republican candidate. But who's to say the next populist Europhobic nutter isn't another 4 years behind them? This is the central problem for the US, that many of its citizens still won't confront: there are costs to unreliability, delinquency, bullying and threats.

> I won't defend trump, but what has threatening annexation of greenland done? Billions in additional military buildup, which is good for both our economies.

This is childishly fatuous. Europe, then, should be grateful to the US for threatening to invade it?

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#728

Post by squidbeak »

burnerRhodov3 wrote: post #694
squidbeak wrote: post #592

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seeing the word 'cope' lobbed out is usually a sure sign a poster is projecting, and so it is here. What exactly is there in the USA's destruction of the economic norms that have always served it, or in the pointless dumping of its hard-won soft power, alienation of its allies, deliberate weakening of its intelligence gatherers, rampant open corruption from its leadership, or in any other of the innumerable harms it'…

Proving superiority? Proxy controlling venezuala, creating LLM's and locking down the frontier models while GLM has to distill the models to be remotely competitive, having the hard power to ensure Iran can't fire AK's into crowds and develop nukes... I don't get how this is not percieved as immense strength? How are people defending terrorists who have been consistently saying "Death to the West"

"I can beat the shit out of the weakling in the school yard. Behold my superiority!"

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#729

Post by squidbeak »

jamiequint wrote: post #713
squidbeak wrote: post #592

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seeing the word 'cope' lobbed out is usually a sure sign a poster is projecting, and so it is here. What exactly is there in the USA's destruction of the economic norms that have always served it, or in the pointless dumping of its hard-won soft power, alienation of its allies, deliberate weakening of its intelligence gatherers, rampant open corruption from its leadership, or in any other of the innumerable harms it'…

"What exactly is there in the USA's destruction of the economic norms that have always served it" What destruction? US GDP growth has recovered to the pre-COVID trendline while EU lags behind it's already-slow previous pace.

The bedrock of economic trust and co-operation that only ever served the USA's interest. What do you imagine the new coolness towards US companies or US lobbying is going to do to US GDP longterm?

You actually typify the myopia of many of Trump's supporters. "Cash in today: fuck tomorrow."

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#730

Post by slopinthebag »

Der_Einzige wrote: post #513
Chyzwar wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because claude subscription tokens are cheaper than deepseek and friends. You have whole industry of people reselling Claude subscriptions in China. Can you comprehend than Anthropic is winning because is both cheap(subscriptions) and better SOTA. People are cheering China providers when I reality they would rugpull open weights the moment they are competive. China models are trash that why they are giving them away…

Not sure why you're being downvoted for being objectively correct. HN is full of contrarians and folks who don't know what they're talking about in regards to AI.

No they aren’t.
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