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First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

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Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#721

Post by lcnPylGDnU4H9OF »

MrOwnPut wrote: post #715
jacquesm wrote: post #712

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. So the only reasonable conclusion so far is that we haven't found the reservoir host yet. This may take a while and it may even never happen. If and when we do we will finally be able to make another step in this whole saga.

You ignored this part of my statement: > If there was GoF being done on the sample (adding of the spike protein to infect humans), that could be the remaining percentage. I do not believe one bit the only "reasonable conclusion" is it has to be from nature. Between the lab sample, the outbreak area, the GoF program being run, the timing, history of lab leaks, and the reaction, a lab leak is very reasonable...

I think there may have been a slight misunderstanding here (I'm not particularly familiar with this topic so I may have some concepts mistaken):

> The lab-leak scenario presumes zoonotic jump, too. Just rather than from something in the wild, it's from humanized (ACE2-transgenic) mice

> So the only reasonable conclusion so far is that we haven't found the reservoir host yet.

> I do not believe one bit the only "reasonable conclusion" is it has to be from nature.

If it's discovered that the reservoir host was a mouse in a lab at WIV then "we will finally be able to make another step in this whole saga" in the same way as it being discovered as a wild host. It might be worth reading their comment again.

(Again, I'm not deeply familiar with this topic and may be totally off base; gluing together my personal understanding of the meanings of these words has me arriving at this conclusion. I'm also attempting to clarify someone else's statements so take another grain of salt for that.)

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#722

Post by mullingitover »

dumbfounder wrote: post #720
mullingitover wrote: post #569

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It took me five seconds of googling to find the president floating that theory. To say nobody is accusing China of using Covid as a bioweapon is a howler - we have a whole community of cranks who are saying there's a conspiracy to conceal the fact Earth is flat, of course there are legions of cranks saying Covid was spread on purpose. It took me five more seconds of googling and I found "Nearly 30% think China likely…

Do I think China did this on purpose? No. Was it a very effective economic weapon? Yes. Should we be on the lookout for others trying to do this on purpose? Hell yes. Just because you’re paranoid…

> Was it a very effective economic weapon? Yes.

I'm trying to wrap my head around this statement. If Covid was a weapon, it was a breathtakingly bad one at every conceivable strategic and tactical level. It's like saying "nuking your own country in order to poison the rest of the world with the fallout is a very effective economic weapon."

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#723

Post by ajsnigrutin »

spacemadness wrote: post #693
ajsnigrutin wrote: post #630

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole "lab leak" thing was one of those conspiracies that got you censored on facebook, reddit and many other sites. Three years later, it's becoming a mainstream discussion and it became a realistic possibility.

So this list is perfectly sane then I suppose, it’s as simple as that. I think the reason so many people like this stuff is they get to pretend they’re smarter than everyone and have the real information. You see, they did the research. They are big brained and everyone else is too stupid to understand. A convenient fit for a “smartest person in the room” fantasy. Authors like this provide fuel for that fantasy.

So what? Anything bad happens, people have many theories that go against the official narrative, from quite possible, to absolute idiocracies, from "Epstein didn't hang himself" to flat-earthers, from usa involvement in iran coup to "bush did 9/11"...

Somehow we have netflix documentaries about flat earthers (even if making fun about them), discovery channel has "documentaries" about ancient aliens, mermaids, ghosts, etc., but a "lab leak theory" has to be censored everywhere.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#724

Post by hcurtiss »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #213
hcurtiss wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>All signs point to misinformation. What does that even mean? That you don't trust these people? Isn't that, definitionally, ad hominem?

"Ad hominem" is a great defense used frequently people with bad reputations for serially lying and misleading. If someone is a repeat offender of passing along misinformation, what they claim should be discounted regardless of whether one likes the claims or not. The people associated with this story have shit reputations and the article rests on anonymous sources. It may not be wrong, but someone would have to be a…

Taibbi, Shellenberger, Greenwald — these are not people with “shit reputations.” These are serious and credible journalists with views outside the mainstream. You may not like them, but I strongly dispute their reputations merit serial dismissal of their views. This is precisely what’s wrong with the current discourse on the left.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#725

Post by logifail »

heisenbit wrote: post #719
logifail wrote: post #598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Covid very rarely results in severe symptoms for middle aged adults Correct, but I don't recall this being the narrative the media were following in 2020, despite stuff like this: "After nearly 45,000 Covid deaths in England and Wales, we can see that people of different ages have been exposed to dramatically differing risks. Fatalities among school-children have been remarkably low. Taking women aged 30–34 as an e…

Aggregate death numbers spiked and not just the old. Death risk from Covid might mirror age related risk but, but, but it is on top of it.

> Aggregate death numbers spiked

If you're claiming that, for instance, those aged under 40 without any comorbidities were at significantly higher risk of dying due to the impact of Covid-19 I think it would be good to post a reference for that.

The CDC publishes data showing causes of death by age cohort[0], it's worth looking at for the year 2020. Apparently they're still working on the 2021 figures.

The short version: Covid-19 just isn't a random killer - and certainly not of otherwise healthy under 40s - that everyone thinks it is/thought it was.

[0] https://wisqars.cdc.gov/fatal-leading

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#726

Post by MrOwnPut »

lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote: post #721
MrOwnPut wrote: post #715

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You ignored this part of my statement: > If there was GoF being done on the sample (adding of the spike protein to infect humans), that could be the remaining percentage. I do not believe one bit the only "reasonable conclusion" is it has to be from nature. Between the lab sample, the outbreak area, the GoF program being run, the timing, history of lab leaks, and the reaction, a lab leak is very reasonable...

I think there may have been a slight misunderstanding here (I'm not particularly familiar with this topic so I may have some concepts mistaken): > The lab-leak scenario presumes zoonotic jump, too. Just rather than from something in the wild, it's from humanized (ACE2-transgenic) mice > So the only reasonable conclusion so far is that we haven't found the reservoir host yet. > I do not believe one bit the only "reaso…

Zoonotic would mean it was a natural occurrence. The GoF program of adding the spike protein to attach to the ACE2 receptor and putting it in a mouse would NOT be zoonotic, but lab made. It's a lab mouse. Not a jump, but a deliberate placement in a lab.

Obviously the implications matter whether it occurred in nature or deliberately by man. If it was the latter, then the program that was supposed to prepare against the potential of a natural virus actually made something that may never have happened, and then went on to kill millions.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#727

Post by isitmadeofglass »

arisAlexis wrote: post #114

I don't understand how long it got for humanity as a whole to see the elephant. New virus, research center close by, Chinese denying but not letting investigation. It's like seeing your your husband exiting a brothel but still need proof he cheated.

[dead]

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#728

Post by tripletao »

dekhn wrote: post #687
tripletao wrote: post #521

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The peer-reviewed literature on COVID origins has been unusually bad. I assume you don't think SARS-CoV-2 came from pangolins; but Nature published "Isolation of SARS-CoV-2-related coronavirus from Malayan pangolins", and took more than a year to correct it. (They said the virus was widespread among pangolins, based on multiple positive samples; but in fact multiple papers had been written about one batch of smuggled…

Are you a professional scientist with experience in this area or not?

Definitely not. But if you just want to hold up credentials, then David Baltimore seems pretty convinced that SARS-CoV-2 arose unnaturally, and I'm pretty sure a Nobel prize beats a paper in Science. So I hope you now agree credentialism is dumb?

Some areas of the origins debate require deep knowledge of the evolutionary biology of related viruses (e.g. the extent to which the coding of the FCS suggests engineering), but most of the debate is understandable with only basic molecular biology and math. From your post history, I'd guess you're better-placed to understand something like Pekar's epidemiological model than most of his reviewers were. So if you're interested enough to comment here, then I'm not sure why you wouldn't try?

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#729

Post by isitmadeofglass »

epicureanideal wrote: post #329
arisAlexis wrote: post #114

I don't understand how long it got for humanity as a whole to see the elephant. New virus, research center close by, Chinese denying but not letting investigation. It's like seeing your your husband exiting a brothel but still need proof he cheated.

> It's like seeing your your husband exiting a brothel but still need proof he cheated. But it happened to be a Chinese brothel, so if you accuse him of cheating, you'll be called an ignorant, xenophonic, scapegoat-seeking racist.

[dead]

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#730

Post by jazzyjackson »

mullingitover wrote: post #722
dumbfounder wrote: post #720

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do I think China did this on purpose? No. Was it a very effective economic weapon? Yes. Should we be on the lookout for others trying to do this on purpose? Hell yes. Just because you’re paranoid…

> Was it a very effective economic weapon? Yes. I'm trying to wrap my head around this statement. If Covid was a weapon, it was a breathtakingly bad one at every conceivable strategic and tactical level. It's like saying "nuking your own country in order to poison the rest of the world with the fallout is a very effective economic weapon."

/tinfoil

you're thinking internationally, you should be thinking supra-nationally. Some elements within China and USA wanted economic warfare (sanctions, dependence-decoupling) to prove they can come out on top

Every war inflicts damage to both sides, as soon as you lob one bomb you should expect more lobbed back at you

what war really is is applying enormous economic strain (both offense and defense) until one side collapses

From that view, the decision to release a virus that plausibly emerged from a Chinese lab performing research tied with US scientists creates a solid fog of who's responsible, both sides deny an attack happened at all, and the war mongers get to have their economic game that ideally (for them) leads to such jingoism on both sides that hot war becomes a likely outcome

/tinfoil

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