Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#721

Post by OJFord » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 6:39 PM UTC

BurningFrog wrote: post #623

StavrosK wrote: post #588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of 45,000 people, only 86ish people got infected in the trial arm? Isn't that too few? Even for the control arm, that's still only 774 people infected.

No, 94 people total got infected. At least 85 were in the control group. Those are the numbers that matter, statistically. If the total number of people in the study were 2 thousand or 2 billion doesn't enter into the math.

That's not true, population size absolutely 'enters into the math'. 9 vs. 85 does not give the same result independently of whether N=94, 200, 2k, or 2B.

It affects confidence, and potentially the result of the test entirely. I won't be more specific because stats was never a strong suit and my memory's hazy, but I remember enough to know it matters!

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#722

Post by foobiekr » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 6:39 PM UTC

dheera wrote: post #603

lbeltrame wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The latest data (preprint, not peer reviewed etc etc) mention memory B and T cells up to 8 months after recovery from the illness. This means that an immunity of one year is probably likely. This would be probably enough to quench the spread, but not to eradicate the virus.

I'd happily take a shot a year for a decade in return for getting rid of lockdown.

I am very curious if the adenovirus carrier candidates can even be used for a booster at all.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#723

Post by tinus_hn » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 6:39 PM UTC

In the Netherlands the dismissals are in already: we need to test longer to make sure it’s safe, we won’t be able to deliver it, etc etc.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#724

Post by _Microft » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 6:39 PM UTC

rpastuszak wrote: post #176

Closi wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, time to invest in zoom too. I assume at some stage people will need to make more video calls.

Just make sure it's the right one! https://securityboulevard.com/2020/04/investors-buy-up-the-w...

How? That's like trying to go to a luxury hotel and ending up in the parking lot of a landscaping company.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#725

Post by redelbee » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 6:39 PM UTC

1MachineElf wrote: post #705

chasd00 wrote: post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

thank god Biden was elected, otherwise this news would have been thrown in the trash.

Why is this a Biden vs Trump issue? They both have campaigned on Covid19 relief. Just because Trump isn't unconstitutionally forcing lockdowns, testing, & contact tracing doesn't mean he isn't doing anything. Pfizer and other vaccine makers got assistance with expediting their vaccine R&D, approval, & distribution as part of Trump admin's Operation Warp Speed. https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/09/16/trump-administr…

Yeah except Pfizer didn’t join Operation Warp Speed:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/09/no-pfizer...

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#726

Post by redisman » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 6:41 PM UTC

benlumen wrote: post #149

I'm feeling a deep-seated wave of relief that I never thought possible. Like waking up from a year-long nightmare. Thank God.

> Thank God.

Wait who developed this vaccine again?

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#727

Post by arkitaip » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 6:41 PM UTC

thehappypm wrote: post #616

snarf21 wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is good news but I'm worried about the mutation already showing up in minks in Denmark. Minks apparently have a near identical respiratory system. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/denmark-plans-kill-15-mil...

Yet another reason to move to a plant-based lifestyle. Covid came from some folks in China using exotic animals for some purpose. Now a new variant seems inevitable from animal populations. Is it worth the burgers and coats?

You have to love the morons who downvoted you when it's painfully obvious that eating meat is the cause of so much health and environmental issues on the planet. For most people here, it's not even that big a deal to switch to a plant-based diet or mostly plant-based diet. Better to adapt now rather when the double or triple digit taxes start coming for our meat-eating asses.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#728

Post by redisman » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 6:42 PM UTC

mandeepj wrote: post #683

vermontdevil wrote: post #663

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They also did not take $ from Operation Speed Warp so I think they waited till now to keep this apolitical.

Right. But, I think it's double-sided. Would they started the research without US govt's contract of almost $2B to buy their vaccine? https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-deta...

Of course yes. Every person on earth will want this vaccine eventually. If the US wants to play games, they have tens of billions of units to sell elsewhere.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#729

Post by robot » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 6:43 PM UTC

jakozaur wrote: post #214

Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?

no significant side-effects _for now_.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#730

Post by WanderPanda » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 6:43 PM UTC

gizmo wrote: post #372

bufferoverflow wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…

> Mutations aren't a serious concern. Because when viruses mutate it's the strains that are more infectious and less lethal that win out

What if it has the contagiousness of covid but the long term lethality of hiv? The long term lethality would have low evolutionary pressure to be less harsh to its host as the implications only follow after many infectious years.

Is there anything fundamentally prohibiting the emergence of such a virus, or are we just lucky?