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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#721

Post by rimliu »

bondarchuk wrote: post #602
rimliu wrote: post #560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not how natural selection works. Most of us want sex because of that gene. But we do know about contraception, which natural selection knows nothing about.

Contraception is part of the environment in which natural selection occurs, in that sense it "knows" about it. Concretely, if there is a set of genes that makes it more likely to have children in spite of contraception, that can be selected for.

No. You do not pass e.g. ability to read via genetic code. So you do not pass knowledge about the contraception (or lack of it) either.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#722

Post by helen___keller »

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

> Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity for them.

As a slight digression, mental health is particularly dire because culturally we have not learned how to advance it yet. Mental health is not given the same reverence as physical health.

It's common sense more or less that you need to drink water, eat healthy food, get good sleep, get exercise. Some people don't do it, but it's well known that you should.

What do you do for mental health? Take some time off occasionally? There is simply not an equivalent body of knowledge as what is needed for physical healthiness.

If the industrial revolution made food abundant and jobs sedentary such that obesity is a problem, the information revolution made similar problems for mental health- but we don't spread awareness because being depressed or anxious isn't as visible as being obese.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#723

Post by symlinkk »

godfreyantonell wrote: post #667
jonwinstanley wrote: post #656

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If sensible people refuse to have children and morons continue to have several, then we will be in an even worse situation down the line

Amen. Why is it that morons and the evil seem to be the most fertile? I have no science to back this up. This is just something I have observed from personal experience.

Because they don’t think things through (morons) or don’t care (evil). Have you seen the movie Idiocracy? It covers this pretty well: https://youtu.be/icmRCixQrx8

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#724

Post by scottLobster »

minerjoe wrote: post #639
xwdv wrote: post #577

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it seems to me like if you do not have children all the effort you would have spent raising them must be spent in cultivating social relationships throughout your life instead, otherwise you do not reap the benefits of child free life and will be alone and lonely in old age. So either way, there’s going to be work if you do not want to be alone. The worst is when you put in the work and end up alone anyway. No on…

Be the change you wish to be in the world. How many of y'all are visiting elederly and helping them now? If you never help the elderly now, how can you expect anything else than lonliness when you are in their place? One of the most tragic results of the "modern" American life is that we throw away are elderly as obsolete while any other sane societies treates them as the holders of wisdom.

To be fair an excessive amount of power given to the elderly in the Spartan legal system also contributed to their slow decline in power as those who benefited from the status quo continuously stifled any attempts at adaptation or reform.

Only a tiny minority of elders have any wisdom worth purveying in my experience. Most are as mediocre at 70 as they were at 25, and can't tell you anything except how to be as mediocre as they are. An even larger fraction actually are obsolete and haven't kept up to date with the latest cultural changes or technology.

I'll take advice from the 70+ year old who's still working and staying abreast of their field/maintaining good relationships with friends and family, or the 70+ year old who did something great once upon a time (and I'll limit the advice I take to said great thing and related subjects). The retiree who worked a mid-level factory job, begrudgingly learned how to check their email and largely lives alone/with their spouse in a rancher with Christian TV playing 24/7 who rants about whatever Sean Hannity said (a direct description of some of my relatives) probably less juice in the squeeze there from a wisdom perspective.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#725

Post by dorchadas »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #529
creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

I do believe it is an economic problem, in that people are not secure in their job, housing, and life enough to bring new people into it. Think Maslow's wotsit of needs. And I think back on where I grew up, what my parents did; they got married early 20's, and were financially secure enough in blue-collar jobs to afford a house twice the size of the one I managed to finally buy at age 32. With that house and the luxu…

This is the main reason I never want kids. I'm just not sure I'll ever be secure enough while young enough to really care for them. Student loans being the main killer; if I could get rid of them and buy a house, things might be different.

But, more than that, I'm also not sure if I'll ever be secure enough to make sure they're secure in the future that seems inevitably coming, with regards to global warming, etc. I just feel it isn't responsible currently.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#726

Post by _bxg1 »

efficax wrote: post #97
_bxg1 wrote: post #10

There's a short-term problem of society becoming "top-heavy", where there might not be enough young to pay for the continued care of the old. But in the long run this seems like a win. I wonder what impact it might have on climate projections.

what does it mean to "pay for" the continued care of the old. Unless we have such a population implosion that we can no longer produce food or run our factories, then we don't need to "pay for" anything. We can simply decide to distribute the resources necessary for the care of the old. The real cost of everything is the labor required to produce it, not the dollar value it receives in a market place. I don't think a…

Pensions, social security, etc. The point is that the "active economy" will shrink beneath what was expected for those systems to function for the number of elderly they will end up having.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#727

Post by scottLobster »

zeepzeep wrote: post #510
gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

> whether to start trying to have a family is a BIG-ASS decision, with life-long consequences It especially has life-long consequences for the children! I wouldn't want to put children in this world. I don't think the future world is a nice place to grow up in, even the current world isn't. IMO it's selfish to make kids just to feel fulfilled and not be lonely.

You realize there's probably never been a better time to be alive except for maybe 50 years ago, right? (depending on which part of the world you're in)

Yes life continues to be harsh, brutal and tragic. It always has been and in some ways always will be. But if your kids are doomed to live in merely the 2nd best civilization humanity has ever produced, I don't think they have much to complain about relatively speaking.

The argument you put forth would have us end the species if everyone agreed to it. And I don't agree we should end human existence and squander all our potential in a fit of depressive nihilism anymore then you should sell all your stocks the moment the market goes down for a day.

It's more selfish IMO to make yourself the arbiter of your unborn childrens' future, denying them the chance at a good life just because you want to make it easier on yourself. Not saying you should have kids if you're not ready, but don't use the state of the world as an excuse. All your ancestors are laughing at how spoiled you are.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#728

Post by jl2718 »

I fail to see the problem. Lower population means an age of abundance: high supply, low demand, safe environment, automation, freedom, leisure, invention. Think dark ages, plague, Renaissance. Pensions can either deflate with price level, or governments can inflate with basic income. It’s only bad for an elite class of people that benefits from increasing consumption, but doesn’t pay the social cost of it. And if you pay more than 0.1% of your net worth in taxes, that’s not you. The elites have become brazen in their assumption of our stupidity.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#729

Post by lazyjones »

menybuvico wrote: post #634
lazyjones wrote: post #547

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, we can just let the nihilistic and self-centered people go extinct. It's good for the gene pool.

The irony in all this is that fertility tends to drop amongst people considered successful and (mostly) progressive, meaning that conservative unsuccessful people will out-breed them. One would think that the logical thing to do if you're rich and successful would be to have many kids, and see if it's due to genetic factors.

> meaning that conservative unsuccessful people will out-breed them

So will conservative, successful people. It'll be fine.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#730

Post by bmcn2020 »

obviously, the quarantine might change those results :D

but on a serious note -- the global population has been falling. And it might be seen as a "negative" thing, but if you change your perspective: the global rate was at once higher only because women DIDN'T have access to education, opportunities, employment, or the rest.

A positive, vis-a-vis a negative, is a negative, right?

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