Microsoft won the first around, now it's lagging far behind. CEO needs to go, it's so hard to ruin a play this badly.
The last year or so it is starting to look like Nadella is worried about his future. If these big plays don't pay off, he is out.
Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
711–720 of 915 posts
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#712Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you do the math (I did), in 2 years, open source models that you can run on a future MacBook Pro will be as capable as the frontier cloud models are today. Memory bandwidth is growing rapidly, as is the die area dedicated to the neural cores. And all the while, we have the silicon getting more power efficient and increasingly dense (as it always does). These hardware improvements are coming along as the open sourc…
A Opus 4.7/Gpt5.5 class model is 5 trillion parameters[1]. To run a 8 bit quantized version of that you need roughly 5TB of RAM. Today that is around 18 NVidia B300. That's around $900,000, without including the computers to run them in. It's true that the capability of open source models is improving, but running actual frontier models on your MPB seems a way off. [1] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/204212356166685523…
People had this "why you probably can't run a GPT-4 (or even GPT-3.5) class model on your MBP anytime soon" conversation before.
Today's LLMs are able pack much more capabilities into fewer parameters compared to 2023. We might still be at the very rudimentary phase of this technology there are low-hanging efficiency gains to be had left and right. These models consume many orders of magnitude more energy than a human brain, this all seems like room for improvement.
The right question: is there a law in information theory that fundamentally prevents a 70B model of any architecture from being as smart as Opus 4.7?
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#713[dead]
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#714Opinions are my own. I think the biggest winner of this might be Google. Virtually all the frontier AI labs use TPU. The only one that doesn't use TPU is OpenAI due to the exclusive deal with Microsoft. Given the newly launched Gen 8 TPU this month, it's likely OpenAI will contemplate using TPU too.
I wish Google would launch Mac Mini-like devices running their consumer-grade TPUs for local inference. I get that they don't want it to eat into their GCP margins, but it would still get them into consumer desktops that Pixel Books could never penetrate (Chromebooks don't count and may likely become obsolete soon due to MacBook Neo).
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#715Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#716Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, it's because certain people moved the goal posts. Nothing an LLM does or will do will make them belive that it's "intelligent" because they have a mental model of "intelligence" that is more religious than empirical.
We don’t have agents that are able to work entirely autonomously, even in the coding realm, which is where they seem to be most valuable. In fact, they’re seemingly not even close to replacing software engineers.
Same can be said of many humans.
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#717So, silly question, does this mean I will be able to get OpenAI models via Bedrock soon?
Yes, https://x.com/ajassy/status/2048806022253609115 (Andy Jassy) "Very interesting announcement from OpenAI this morning. We’re excited to make OpenAI's models available directly to customers on Bedrock in the coming weeks, alongside the upcoming Stateful Runtime Environment. With this, builders will have even more choice to pick the right model for the right job. More details at our AWS event in San Francisco tomor…
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Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#718[deleted]
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#719[dead]
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#720Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the advancement in AI over the last four years has greatly exceeded the advancement in understanding the workings of human intelligence. What paradigm shift has there been recently in that field?
What have we learned that isn't in my textbook from the 90s?
That's what I'm asking. I don't understand what's changed about our understanding of human intelligence.