701–710 of 915 posts
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But my point is that surely these additional 60,000 people (and probably many more who recovered) must have gone through ICU.
Not necessarily, and maybe they didn't need artificial ventilation which is the big deal here.
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Please note that Lombardy has a very very good health service. The OECD put a score on this [1]: 9.9/10. This is in the top 5% across all regions. Other european regions seem to have lower average scores and their governments are not taking serious actions. [2] How the US is reacting from my perspective (italian confined near Rome) seems borderline madness. Something about this situation confuses me a lot. [1] https:…
Politicians have no understanding of exponential growth. They look at low numbers and think "we have a lot of time" then are surprised later when they in fact don't.
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So doctors work overtime during situations like this. Surprise. My problem with these reports is that they have a tendency to spread fear, especially the way the are presented. They also undermine trust in public information which only makes it harder to implement measures, in turn making it harder to contain the virus.
Orthopedists being reallocated to treating pneumonias goes a little beyond "working overtime".
Also, pretty much in line emergency handling. There is a reason why national emergencies are getting declared. It is the sesantional, alarmist way this stuff is reported that is driving me mad. We should all stay calm and follow guidelines. Instead people buy toilet paper (still just finny) and masks (where gets less funny pretty fast). This kind of reporting, amplified by social media, is a huge part of the problem.
Is anyone here aware of some research trying to quantify the death toll of such a large-scale quarantine? For instance, closing universities could result many years later in ill-trained doctors and then bad diagnostics. The economic downfalls could result in an increase of poverty and homelessness-related deaths and suicides.
Estimate the economic loss and you have a back of a napkin death toll.
But no, people don't seem to be talking about it.
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Now long would you maintain that quarantine? Is there some amount of time after which the virus will go away? Any call for drastic measures, even when drastic measures seem like common sense to some people , need to explain why the measures should be implemented and under what circumstances they should be lifted.
They are undertaken so that the health service is not overwhelmed with cases. When that happens (as in Italy), you need to triage infected and let some number of people die, who otherwise would not have died. So it is best avoided. They're lifted after most of the population has already been infected and the disease has run its course (as in China).
This is an account from one of the doctors in Italy. https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/123714289107769753... Read the whole thing, but this passage in particular is just chilling. "5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are start…
Am I the only to catch the very first sentence? "From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy:" Basically, that make this twitter thread uncorborated news unless someone reached out to the Italian doctor referenced in it.
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Am I the only to catch the very first sentence? "From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy:" Basically, that make this twitter thread uncorborated news unless someone reached out to the Italian doctor referenced in it.
I know what you mean, that phrase 'from a friend' rings a few alarm bells. However official statements widely reported in the media are essentally saying similar things: Antonio Pesenti, head of the Lombardy regional crisis response unit, told the Corriere della Sera newspaper the health system in Lombardy was “a step away from collapse” as intensive care facilities came under growing strain from the new cases. “We’r…
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But then the counterpoint is that once panic steps in it becomes hard to manage. People should be called to take this seriously and to proper civic duties. Panic is was caused the toilet paper craze.
> Panic is was caused the toilet paper craze. If that's the extent of the damage caused by panic, then we are going to be fine.
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That is an incredibly short sighted view. We need to be proactive not reactive. This virus is here and it's here in a big way. Positive cases are not the full picture. Median incubation period is 5 days. Italy is a warning and we're not taking it. We should all be in quarantine now so this doesn't get out of hand rather than wait for it to become uncontrollable and then trying to de-escalate it.
Ok, so you suggest every single person in Germany to be quarantined. Whether they have symptoms or not. Now that's what I call an over reaction.
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They don’t need an understanding of exponential growth, they only need to look at examples: China, extreme measures and barely contained it; Italy delayed measures, turning fast into a disaster. How many examples do we need?
A couple of weeks ago it was "China was slow and it turned into a disaster". Now China was fast and Italy is turining into a disaster. Someties it seems that people want to be that a disaster, so they push that narrative. Same thing happens with the deniers, so.
Italy was slow, and is already a nightmare.