Is the iPhone birth control? Causal evidence from AT&T's 2007-2011 monopoly [pdf]

Post by ileonichwiesz » Fri, Jul 03, 2026, 8:32 AM UTC

fragmede wrote: post #66

staticshock wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a subgenre of dystopian sci-fi where the premise is that reality in general is destined to be eclipsed by matrix-like hyper-realities, and that people will vastly prefer those and cede reality to whoever's left. I guess the way this could work itself out is that if you prefer a hyper-reality, your genes do not pass on, and someone else's do, and within some number of generations we bounce back in response to…

However, medical care isn't evenly distributed, neither is education, and there's tons of cultural differences as well. The mutations happen, but if the next Einstein or Ramanujan dies in a war-torn ghetto, did the mutation really happen?

Post by Forgeties79 » Fri, Jul 03, 2026, 8:51 AM UTC

trhway wrote: post #44

Forgeties79 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re just making up numbers

Actually raising a child costs more than $1.2M - just $20K/year invested in S&P500 over the last 20 years would have grown to more than $1.2M. Or those $20K/year could be spend on the child. And $20K/year is pretty low.

Post by Forgeties79 » Fri, Jul 03, 2026, 9:22 AM UTC

trhway wrote: post #74

Forgeties79 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d check that math - that’s 67k/yr, not 20k/yr. 1.2mill/18 years. I’m a parent and yeah it’s expensive but not multiple mortgages expensive unless you’re choosing certain expenses like very costly private schools. I also don’t compare parenthood with investing in the S&P 500 as they are radically different undertakings, but that’s a different discussion entirely.

>I’d check that math - that’s 67k/yr, not 20k/yr. 1.2mill/18 years. It is meaningless calculating cost by simple division when the endeavor takes 2 decades. Money today are different from money 20 years ago. S&P500 is pretty reasonable and well accepted device to calculate opportunity cost over such long timeframes.

Post by fragmede » Fri, Jul 03, 2026, 9:54 AM UTC

ileonichwiesz wrote: post #71

fragmede wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

However, medical care isn't evenly distributed, neither is education, and there's tons of cultural differences as well. The mutations happen, but if the next Einstein or Ramanujan dies in a war-torn ghetto, did the mutation really happen?

A point mutation is very unlikely to produce “the next Einstein”, it’ll just produce someone with one slightly different protein in their gut.

Post by throw93930 » Fri, Jul 03, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC

Forgeties79 wrote: post #75

trhway wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I’d check that math - that’s 67k/yr, not 20k/yr. 1.2mill/18 years. It is meaningless calculating cost by simple division when the endeavor takes 2 decades. Money today are different from money 20 years ago. S&P500 is pretty reasonable and well accepted device to calculate opportunity cost over such long timeframes.

I didn’t set these numbers, the other dude did then you backed it up even going so far as to lecture me about how 20k isn’t enough to raise a kid. I completely agree that this is meaningless, but I’m also not going to let 1.2mill suddenly equal 20k/yr raising a kid!