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Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

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Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#71

Post by scottyah »

danielovichdk wrote: post #19

I think the US is in such a fucked up place economically, that the stock market is so overheated and will cause grave inflation, but it's the only lever left to pull for the government, that it will cause havoc within the next 10 years. SpaceX or any of AI companies for that matter is absolutely not worth their money, but they will be carried through by government legislation, because otherwise the economy will be fu…

I mean, the entire predicted value that the company will be worth is like 6mo of the US budget (>$7 Trillion per year). I don't think that's all that much, even if they accomplish half of what they're all trying to do.

The economy is already F'd because so few people are actually working productively- it's been a laptop-class driven economy since the 80s.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#72

Post by mullingitover »

soperj wrote: post #63
scottyah wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get the feeling that in 5yrs or so if China makes the yuan free-floating it will be more of a reserve currency. All spaceX has to do is keep being as innovative and industrious as it is now, in the physical world as all other companies are getting very lazy or just working on software. Eventually it'll probably go the way of GE because humans are humans, but I think we have a few decades until more compelling place…

> All spaceX has to do is keep being as innovative and industrious as it is now SpaceX seemed to lose a big step when Musk got involved in DOGE. I don't know if key people left or what, but the pace seem to slow considerably, and the successes also seemed to come to a crashing halt.

Some principled people left when he made his big heel turn into openly promoting ethnonationalist authoritarianism.

Pretty sure some other principled people stayed behind and are using the field manual[1].

[1] https://gutenberg.org/ebooks/26184

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#73

Post by throwawayqqq11 »

itsgonnabebad wrote: post #30
m3kw9 wrote: post #12

I know this sounds "bad" but early in Tesla's forcasts, I've seen many "highly unlikely" articles, but Tesla ended up blowing past expectations. This one is tough too, but I hate just dismiss it as unlikely especially with Elon at the helm

Blown past? It was only a few years ago people were saying Tesla was going to own the entire car market, and everyone else would go out of business. The Cybertruck was going to be the best selling car of all time, the insurance business was going to be a massive money maker etc. None of these things happened.

Elon is a true grand master to blow past shifted goal posts. If people continue to fall for it, he might have success, however you define it.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#75

Post by scottyah »

ck2 wrote: post #20

I'm still struggling with the idea that 4,400 millionaires are going to be created overnight (out of 22,000 employees) Because many of them are going to sell sell sell at least half of their shares Which then means the value will PLUMMET

I think most still believe in the mission, especially the ones with that many shares. I get selling enough to buy a house and add some diversity to your portfolio, but you really have to have a dismal outlook to sell all your shares, or even half.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#76

Post by scottyah »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #37
m3kw9 wrote: post #12

I know this sounds "bad" but early in Tesla's forcasts, I've seen many "highly unlikely" articles, but Tesla ended up blowing past expectations. This one is tough too, but I hate just dismiss it as unlikely especially with Elon at the helm

Tesla spent almost years scraping by, almost went bankrupt in 2018, had three years of "exceeds expectation" from 2020 to 2023 and is now being murdered by competitors. A lot of "income" comes from selling regulatory credits, not cars. FSD is up to v14 and there is no sense in which it's "Full", or is likely to be "Full" any time soon. The early computer industry created a good few companies which achieved profitabil…

> murdered by competitors

Is just a downright lie. The Tesla Model Y maintained its title as the world's best-selling vehicle in 2025 across all powertrains, marking its third consecutive year at number one. Even the CT is the best selling EV pickup, the last bestseller could not find a way to sell it profitably.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#77

Post by CursedSilicon »

scottyah wrote: post #51
bilbo0s wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, SpaceX is supposed to be more about AI than low cost orbital launches. At least that’s what their roadshow is claiming. But either way, yeah, I’m not willing to bet much money on USD4.3T unless we can get some serious financial engineering, (read “circular deals”), going.

We've seen through Tesla that software, government regulation, and to a smaller degree build quality are the only moats against China that still currently hold.

Tesla build quality? Early Chinese EV's were a joke, but Tesla's aren't exactly built reliably either

Once you learn how to spot their misaligned panels it becomes impossible not to

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#78

Post by SecretDreams »

SXX wrote: post #2

You never know what inflation gonna be in futute. In some countries that turned into autocracies with strong and long standing leaders who love traditional values and religion inflation can easily be 30-70% a year. Then not only 4.3T reachable, but even 43T.

This is true. We just need to bank on a total economic collapse and all of our SpaceX valuation fantasies can come true.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#79

Post by 0xbadcafebee »

I don't think some people understand how money works. If you say you're going to have $3.4T in revenue, someone has to have that money, and give it to you. So where is the money? Who has it? Are they spending it somewhere else right now, and will decide to instead spend it on SpaceX later? Or is the money just sitting in savings accounts, strangely not being spent or invested?

And why would they put their money into SpaceX anyway? What has SpaceX said the $3.4T will be based on?

1. Space-based AI datacenters. Yes, they actually said that. Anyone who knows anything about space and datacenters knows this is insane.

2. Starlink. They're saying they're going to make $3.4T by... running an ISP. In space.

3. Starship. They are betting that so many people want to send junk into space that it'll make them $3.4T.

4. Possible Tesla merger. This would definitely bump up the numbers. But Tesla's future depends on cars, AI and robotics. The US's electric car market is in decline (Thanks, Trump!) and BYD is producing cheaper electric cars faster (though US buyers won't buy BYD's, the US electric car market isn't as big as the global market, and is smaller since removing tax rebates). It's clearly not a real AI competitor, if they just rented out their AI datacenters to the competition. And China is churning out robots constantly that actually work and are cheap.

As you can see from other analyses (https://fortune.com/2026/05/31/spacex-tesla-odds-of-merging-...), their cash flow is actually much lower than they claim. The valuations are crazily high. SpaceX/Tesla's claims of how they're going to make money verges on snake oil.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#80

Post by SecretDreams »

d_silin wrote: post #32

SpaceX already blown through a number of "... but this cannot be!" forecasts. Would not discount them easily.

Just this morning, someone told me SpaceX valuation proponents couldn't possibly be more obtuse; yet, this thread has blown through those expectations.
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