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Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

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Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#71

Post by jimjohnny123 »

derriz wrote: post #69
jimjohnny123 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may call it self-harm, but I think we need to consider Britain's relatively pragmatic / less than enthusiastic membership of the EU. For a start, Britain has a completely different legal system to the rest of Europe (common law vs. civil law). That was bound to create tensions. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Legal_systems_in_Eur...

I don't see how you can make such a binary claim - UK vs "the rest of Europe". Your map shows 6 broad categories of legal systems in use across Europe. Even if you put the 5 non-common law systems into one bucket, it still wouldn't make the UK unique as Ireland operates under common law.

You are right, it is not binary in the way I wrote. I guess one difference between UK and Ireland is absence of a written constitution?

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#72

Post by bborud »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #56
bborud wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well here is how it looks from my perspective: - At previous gig relocation of manufacturing to the UK stopped because it would be impossible to operate there due to severe delays in procurement and long delays in securing appropriate visas for employees. Manufacturing sent to different country. (for many projects I work on 1-2 days delivery is the expected norm. With 3-5 days for "slow" shipping) - Stopped buying fr…

Noone buys Korean phones or cars or whatever because they are not in the EU... of course not. The issue, and lack of plan to cope with, is that the change requires a (long?) period of deep reconfiguration. But still, places like London, Cambridge, etc are doing incredibly well and better than on the continent... Brexit hasn't been a fairytale but it hasn't been a catastrophe, either.

Except for Germany, which of the major countries are you referring to? Show me numbers.

It has been 10 years. How long do you think this should take? 20 years? And how long before the lost decade (or perhaps decades) have been made up for and the UK goes net positive? 30 years? 50? (The area below the curve is important. You learned about integrals in school, right?).

Trust me: nobody I talk to is interested in doing business with UK companies or in the UK if they can avoid it. Which makes me curious: who are these companies that have seen a boost in foreign trade?

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#73

Post by MagnumOpus »

Uhhrrr wrote: post #55

For comparison, Remain advocates predicted a fall in GDP of 3.6-6.0%: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/brexit-would-put-our-...

So it seems like they have been spot on? TFA quotes the OBR as estimating a 4% negative impact and the CEFR estimate of -5.5% cumulative impact.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#74

Post by Uhhrrr »

MagnumOpus wrote: post #73
Uhhrrr wrote: post #55

For comparison, Remain advocates predicted a fall in GDP of 3.6-6.0%: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/brexit-would-put-our-...

So it seems like they have been spot on? TFA quotes the OBR as estimating a 4% negative impact and the CEFR estimate of -5.5% cumulative impact.

I should mention that the Remain advocate estimates of 3.6-6.0 were for a time frame of two years: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hm-treasury-analy...

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#75

Post by soco »

haaz wrote: post #70

Glad to see that people on hackernews know more about the costs of EU regulation than Jim Ratcliffe, James Dyson, Tim Martin etc. Just look at the AI act, GDPR, and how the EU shot their tech sector in the foot with these. If being in the EU was so great then why don't Norway or Switzerland join? I am an EU citizen and it is extremely convenient in my personal life (common currency, no visas, my sim card works everyw…

...heavily decentralized Switzerland...? What does this even mean? Care to explain, if there is anything to explain of course? And no-regulations Switzerland? I don't know the other countries but if at least one example is completely imaginary, the rest kinda lose their strength in my view.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#76

Post by jsbisviewtiful »

haaz wrote: post #70

Glad to see that people on hackernews know more about the costs of EU regulation than Jim Ratcliffe, James Dyson, Tim Martin etc. Just look at the AI act, GDPR, and how the EU shot their tech sector in the foot with these. If being in the EU was so great then why don't Norway or Switzerland join? I am an EU citizen and it is extremely convenient in my personal life (common currency, no visas, my sim card works everyw…

> If being in the EU was so great then why don't Norway or Switzerland join?

I'm not an economist nor am I an European citizen, but both of those countries have very successful and wealthy economies. It doesn't seem necessary or advantageous for them to join the EU as, if anything, introducing a second currency and new laws that are tied to many other countries' prosperity would just risk destabilization. If the situation for either country changes in the future, it might make more sense for them to join at that point, but as of the moment they have no need or widespread desire to. Last I heard, Switzerland is even voting on whether to cap their population, which would prob not fly in the EU.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#77

Post by phs318u »

dudul wrote: post #60
kibibu wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're saying the bus didn't exist?

Reading is hard I guess. I'm saying Brexit was not sold as being positive for the economy. Yes the bus probably existed, and as I said, the argument was made that the excess in EU contribution would be spent domestically instead. But improving the economy was not the main argument of the Leave. They always mostly acknowledged that it would be a bit unknown, but whatever happened would be worth it if it meant more sov…

> Yes the bus probably existed

“Probably”. Wow. Talk about self delusion and historical revisionism. You can’t bring yourself to admit the obvious reality that the Brexiteers were - to a man - self-serving, mendacious, con artists.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#78

Post by zoenolan »

haaz wrote: post #70

Glad to see that people on hackernews know more about the costs of EU regulation than Jim Ratcliffe, James Dyson, Tim Martin etc. Just look at the AI act, GDPR, and how the EU shot their tech sector in the foot with these. If being in the EU was so great then why don't Norway or Switzerland join? I am an EU citizen and it is extremely convenient in my personal life (common currency, no visas, my sim card works everyw…

> If being in the EU was so great, then why don't Norway or Switzerland join?

https://www.ft.com/content/5c8a871f-9a49-45f4-9ac0-543a608a5...

https://archive.is/dCYJG

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#79

Post by JojoFatsani »

grahar64 wrote: post #28

"The question was never whether this would involve costs" Brexit was sold as being positive for the economy. The proponents drove a bus around saying they would get 350 million back. It was largely advertised as a net positive for the economy

It was sold as that but it was heavily xenophobia-coded

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#80

Post by kibibu »

slater wrote: post #67
dudul wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reading is hard I guess. I'm saying Brexit was not sold as being positive for the economy. Yes the bus probably existed, and as I said, the argument was made that the excess in EU contribution would be spent domestically instead. But improving the economy was not the main argument of the Leave. They always mostly acknowledged that it would be a bit unknown, but whatever happened would be worth it if it meant more sov…

"the bus probably existed" wtf... there are photos of it, which were plastered all over media at the time. there's no "probably" about it

Here's Nigel Farage, at 6:53 AM the morning after Brexit passed, saying the claim on the bus was a "mistake" and they were never going to send that money to NHS.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSK0vVL2pg8

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