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The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

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Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#71
post #2

This is important context in the wake of yesterday’s “raise” announcement. A lot of this stuff seems to just quietly never happen once the ink on the PR puff dries. The AI industry increasingly looks in scramble mode to keep the hype going as those storm clouds of financial and business reality get darker and darker on the horizon.

All the “raises” consist of “committed capital” and all of the revenue is annualized.

Welcome to dot com 2.0

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#72
post #3
post #2

This is important context in the wake of yesterday’s “raise” announcement. A lot of this stuff seems to just quietly never happen once the ink on the PR puff dries. The AI industry increasingly looks in scramble mode to keep the hype going as those storm clouds of financial and business reality get darker and darker on the horizon.

Anthropic does look healthier, with their enterprise focus. Or am I missing something?

Relative to OAI they are healthier.

That isn’t saying much.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#74

Has there ever been a period o time where people saw a bubble coming and that we were in one, but it just inexorably refused to pop/drug out this long? This isn’t a rhetorical question, I’m wondering how this period compares to other irrational periods of the economy like railroad fever etc.

The bubble bursting has almost become eschatological for deniers. Keep praying that it will happen. It won't.

That's also what NFT hypebros said.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#75
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't work well. The searches are wrong and uninformative much of the time.

Any examples of bad ones? I find them perfectly fine for my queries.

Search for anything mechanically car related and the results are terrible or wrong.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#76
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a company bringing a new technology from zero to mainstream, I think it's pretty normal that there will be a lot of failed attempts at productization. The thing that isn't normal is the degree of experimentation relative to company valuation. Normally once a company reaches $700 B+ valuation, they've figured out their product and monetization strategy. ChatGPT is clearly still iterating heavily on that - not norm…

And not normal for a company that has been at it this long. The Apple II went on sale on June 10th, 1977. Visicalc went on sale October 17th, 1979- 860 days separate the two. ChatGPT was opened to the public on November 30th, 2022, which was 1219 days ago- almost 50% more time has elapsed than between the Apple II and Visicalc.

[deleted]

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#77
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any examples of bad ones? I find them perfectly fine for my queries.

Search for anything mechanically car related and the results are terrible or wrong.

Do you have a concrete example I can reproduce? I searched for things like how to change the filter of X make and model and it seems correct, not sure if that's what you meant.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#78
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a company bringing a new technology from zero to mainstream, I think it's pretty normal that there will be a lot of failed attempts at productization. The thing that isn't normal is the degree of experimentation relative to company valuation. Normally once a company reaches $700 B+ valuation, they've figured out their product and monetization strategy. ChatGPT is clearly still iterating heavily on that - not norm…

And not normal for a company that has been at it this long. The Apple II went on sale on June 10th, 1977. Visicalc went on sale October 17th, 1979- 860 days separate the two. ChatGPT was opened to the public on November 30th, 2022, which was 1219 days ago- almost 50% more time has elapsed than between the Apple II and Visicalc.

Without me trying to be snarky why do you feel spreadsheet software launching is comparable to this scenario?

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#79
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anthropic does look healthier, with their enterprise focus. Or am I missing something?

The LLM usage will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in ad revenue, which will be wildly lucrative in terms of margins (not as good as Google search used to be). If GPT is a leader in that, they'll take a sizable share of that pot. There's a lot more money in being Google -> consumer ads, or Amazon -> consumer ads, or Meta -> consumer ads, than there is in being Anthropic -> enterprise. Just take a look at the…

Google launched in 1998 and were running ads by 2000. Considering how much more access to adtech product talent there is for OAI a quarter of a century on, what explains their hesitation to pick that route and make billions? After all they had billions avaiable to acquire designer bauble maker Jony Ive's company.
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