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Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

reuters.com

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Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#71

Post by spwa4 »

gpm wrote: post #61
elzbardico wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because storage is incredibly expensive and thus, for every GW of installed solar capacity you need and an exact another GW reserve capacity from other sources for the rare times when the sun doesn't shine (like, for example, during the night or during large spells of bad weather). Besides being intermittent, solar and wind are not really dispatchable, that is, the grid operator doesn't have many levers to control th…

This is all true except for the fact that storage is not incredibly expensive anymore, which invalidates every single conclusion you reach. Storage is now reasonably affordable, and the trend suggests it will soon be incredibly cheap.

Which will make the problems of the rich disappear and the problems of the poor and the state ... worse. (because the costs of the state are paying off loans for expensive generation, costs which they recover from the poor)

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#72

Post by jillesvangurp »

UltraSane wrote: post #37
peppersghost93 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

overprovision for their needs during the day and utilize battery power at night.

Solar panels are cheap but batteries are very expensive.

Batteries are dirt cheap already and getting cheaper all the time. Pakistan would be buying them at the Chinese prices without a lot of tariffs or nonsense that might be misleading you into believing otherwise.

Think a bandwidth of 50-80$ per kwh cost levels for the manufacturer with a margin on top in a market where there's over production and prices are still trending down and margins are probably under quite a bit of pressure. That's the widely publicized cost levels for Chinese manufacturers that dominate the world supply currently. Some of the sodium ion batteries that are coming to market now are already at the lower end of that price bandwidth and could go to 10-20$/kwh over the next 5-10 years; maybe faster.

At those prices, anyone can afford plenty of battery to survive the sun not shining for days/weeks. Which in places like Pakistan would be redundant. It's far south and you can count the number of days that you shouldn't be wearing sunglasses outside per year on the fingers of one hand. Even when it's cloudy, there's plenty of light filtering through in that part of the world..

Prices you might be seeing in the US tell you more about the local politics there than the economics of batteries. The US has it self to blame for bad economics like that. Places like Pakistan aren't going to slow down because the US can't figure out all this new stuff. For them this is economic growth unlocked by vastly more energy than they've ever had access to. All they'll ever need basically.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#73

Post by andyferris »

namibj wrote: post #35
abdullahkhalids wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I heard that they are trying to restructure the billing in this way for next fiscal year (July 2026- ), but its really difficult to find a non-regressive scheme. Electricity per-unit prices in Pakistan are set by the government, they vary depending on how much you consume [1], and they play a pretty significant role in government popularity. [1] There is a price for the first 50 units you consume, then a higher price…

Grids in Germany if you're not a "typical household/office" with therefore atypical grid usage bill for peak power and energy separately; the billing related peak power is measured by averaging power over 15 minute chunks, and taking the worst one of a year. Alternatively it's also practical for such solar situations to bill for market rate price of the energy in each 15 minute chunk separately; this doesn't correctl…

> averaging power over 15 minute chunks, and taking the worst one of a year.

What an interesting metric. Wouldn't even a very cheap and small battery (definitely small enough to keep inside an appartment) provide enough smoothing to, like, halve this peak number? You could rig it to not even output energy until you are beyond the current year's peak usage... How much money would you save this way?

I just feel this number is so prone to small mistakes (grandma plugs in the wrong things at the wrong times) and hacks (like the above) that the relationship between users' reward/punishment and the grid's health seems wildly disproportionate.

> market rate price of the energy in each 15 minute chunk separately

I am currently on a plan with 5 minute market rates, can buy and sell in (sell prices can go negative - as can buy, actually), all automated. At least I feel we am working with the grid, not against it, and we make a small net profit (before depreciation).

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#74

Post by jillesvangurp »

bitxbitxbitcoin wrote: post #9

How many years before this happens in parts of the United States?

Up to the locals in the US. Depends what their pain threshold is for falling behind and looking a bit behind the times. I think FOMO is going to be a big driver in a few years. This is not a left vs right topic. It's a money topic. And my impression of the US is that they love getting stuff on the cheap. Solar energy should be such a thing and it's getting painfully obvious that the US is paying a steep price where the rest of the world isn't. If I'm reading the situation correct, that is already annoying the hell out of a lot of traditionally republican leading states and not because they are tree-huggers.

The right question to ask is whether places like Mexico are going to politely wait for the US to get its act together or whether they'll just go ahead and start electrifying their country and industry and reducing their cost levels. The current isolationist policy works both ways. Very sunny place, Mexico. Great place for solar and batteries. And once you have those, Chines EVs produced locally might work very well. And they can export those further south.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#75

Post by testing22321 »

neebz wrote: post #30

We switched to solar in 2021 expecting a 3.5-year payback. Electricity prices rose so fast that we recovered the investment in under two years. Also the national grid is notorious for it's frequent blackouts (load-shedding) since the early ’90s. Solar allowed us to have uninterrupted supply in the mornings and longer backups during night.

We got roof top solar 1.5 years ago in Canada. Payoff will be 6-7 years, but we got an interest free loan to cover it.

So we’ll just pay what we would have for power for those years ~$1000 a year, then we’ll have free power for 20 more, saving something like $20,000 for $0 investment.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#76

Post by triceratops »

spwa4 wrote: post #71
gpm wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is all true except for the fact that storage is not incredibly expensive anymore, which invalidates every single conclusion you reach. Storage is now reasonably affordable, and the trend suggests it will soon be incredibly cheap.

Which will make the problems of the rich disappear and the problems of the poor and the state ... worse. (because the costs of the state are paying off loans for expensive generation, costs which they recover from the poor)

The state can default on the loans too. It sucks and it will make future financing more difficult. But it remains an option. No such thing as risk-free lending.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#77

Post by testing22321 »

SoftTalker wrote: post #7
pfdietz wrote: post #3

What this shows is solar is increasingly threatening the electric utility business model. Even without net metering, demand destruction will cause the traditional model to stop working.

Most people aren’t interested in being responsible for their own electrical generation. Especially with payback still being on the order of decades

My payback is 6-7 years in Canada with $0 invested.

“Responsible for my own power generation” = I do literally nothing. Nada.

I get $1000 a year for free.

Please show me someone who does not want $1000 per year for absolutely nothing.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#78

Post by triceratops »

pfdietz wrote: post #3

What this shows is solar is increasingly threatening the electric utility business model. Even without net metering, demand destruction will cause the traditional model to stop working.

In most places in the developed world utility-scale solar is much cheaper to build than rooftop solar. And there's value in having a stable grid to fall back on. I think the demand destruction story is overrated.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#79

Post by distances »

andyferris wrote: post #73
namibj wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Grids in Germany if you're not a "typical household/office" with therefore atypical grid usage bill for peak power and energy separately; the billing related peak power is measured by averaging power over 15 minute chunks, and taking the worst one of a year. Alternatively it's also practical for such solar situations to bill for market rate price of the energy in each 15 minute chunk separately; this doesn't correctl…

> averaging power over 15 minute chunks, and taking the worst one of a year. What an interesting metric. Wouldn't even a very cheap and small battery (definitely small enough to keep inside an appartment) provide enough smoothing to, like, halve this peak number? You could rig it to not even output energy until you are beyond the current year's peak usage... How much money would you save this way? I just feel this nu…

> Wouldn't even a very cheap and small battery (definitely small enough to keep inside an appartment)

Like namibj mentioned, this does not apply for residential contracts.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#80

Post by SackSolStr »

The payback periods get me confused. A relative set up solar a year ago in one of the sunniest places in Europe, the Canaries, cost €7,000 for 6KW. He just ran the math on it and found out that the payback period is 15 years. The only way to make it profitable is government subsidies. How can it be profitable to install solar in continental Europe where taxes and labor costs are much higher while having much less sun? Why are we using taxpayers' money to subsidize such negative NPV projects?
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