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Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

reuters.com

21–30 of 262 posts

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#21
post #3

What this shows is solar is increasingly threatening the electric utility business model. Even without net metering, demand destruction will cause the traditional model to stop working.

What will people do at night?

overprovision for their needs during the day and utilize battery power at night.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#22

How many years before this happens in parts of the United States?

Already does in some cases but the utility companies have fought back and they can buy laws and regulations to slow down the process and protect profits.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm guessing: fewer people buying from the power companies/grid => the fixed costs of these companies are pushed onto the poorer customers, who already couldn't afford much.

Don't they charge a minimum just for keeping the wires connected?

I think most places the service is priced under the assumption that usage is enough to pay for the grid…

I’ve only ever rented though. Are connection fees something that homeworkers think about?

Possibly we will have to see changes to account for this sort of stuff at a more granular level, as the grid becomes more dynamic. But, that’s a future we should be actively looking to design for, as the energy supply mix is going to change whatever anybody thinks about that. Can’t beat energy falling from the sky, on price…

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#24
post #5
post #3

What this shows is solar is increasingly threatening the electric utility business model. Even without net metering, demand destruction will cause the traditional model to stop working.

Will it? I’m not sure how the utilities structure their prices wrt the actual cost, but they definitely separate the baseline connection cost from usage on bills (at least in the US), so they may not be killed by people using very little power as long as the connection fee actually covers things.

Unfortunately the connection fee does not cover all fixed cost. For a long time the model has been fairly "progressive" in this regard. Some of the fixed costs of the grid have been paid for by amortization over the per Kw cost, which had the effect of charging people who used more a larger chunk of these fixed costs. Now with the option to provide your own power if you have upfront capital for solar can build as big of a system as they want. As other comments in the thread have mentioned, net-metering is largely functioned as a subsidy to give money to people who are already doing fine financially. I want green energy, and I think that decentralization has definite benefits, but it's pretty hard to argue against maintaining the grid to allow re-balancing and covering supply shortfalls in specific areas. Here is a video discussing this problem - https://youtu.be/C4cNnVK412U?si=ZzZhoApFW3khqrdq&t=720

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm guessing: fewer people buying from the power companies/grid => the fixed costs of these companies are pushed onto the poorer customers, who already couldn't afford much.

Don't they charge a minimum just for keeping the wires connected?

Usually that’s included in per-kWh fee, so indeed usage dependent.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s a business model where distributed solar production and storage is the norm and central grid based generation and delivery is the minority. Such a model is extremely resistant and there’s less system infrastructure necessary. It’s quite feasible to redesign the system around a “distributed first” model.

Where do the massive upgrades to the distribution system required for this kind of setup come from? We simultaneously hate utilities and want them to redesign and pay for a distribution system that was not intended for bidirectional load flow. Our municipal distribution systems are barely adequate. Net metering produces essentially no revenue but imposes a huge load on that infra.

My understanding is there is less of a need for massive grid upgrades in this model due to the use of storage. Rather than having to be able to distribute peak loads from solar, requiring a larger connection, you can smooth out the supply and distribute an even amount throughout the day, using a smaller connection.

The section "1.1.3 Bringing large savings on grid expansions" [1] has a good explanation.

1. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-e...

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#27
post #3

What this shows is solar is increasingly threatening the electric utility business model. Even without net metering, demand destruction will cause the traditional model to stop working.

Commercial and industrial use already makes up a large portion of demand. While the model will change to cater less to residential needs, overall demand for stable, high voltage generation is not going to go down.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm guessing: fewer people buying from the power companies/grid => the fixed costs of these companies are pushed onto the poorer customers, who already couldn't afford much.

Don't they charge a minimum just for keeping the wires connected?

When they start charging that way, the rich will buy batteries and disconnect from the grid entirely.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm guessing: fewer people buying from the power companies/grid => the fixed costs of these companies are pushed onto the poorer customers, who already couldn't afford much.

Don't they charge a minimum just for keeping the wires connected?

I heard that they are trying to restructure the billing in this way for next fiscal year (July 2026- ), but its really difficult to find a non-regressive scheme. Electricity per-unit prices in Pakistan are set by the government, they vary depending on how much you consume [1], and they play a pretty significant role in government popularity.

[1] There is a price for the first 50 units you consume, then a higher price for the next 150 units, etc. Similar system to income taxes.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#30
We switched to solar in 2021 expecting a 3.5-year payback. Electricity prices rose so fast that we recovered the investment in under two years.

Also the national grid is notorious for it's frequent blackouts (load-shedding) since the early ’90s. Solar allowed us to have uninterrupted supply in the mornings and longer backups during night.

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