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PRC elites voice AI-skepticism

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Re: PRC elites voice AI-skepticism

#71

Post by vkou »

XenophileJKO wrote: post #33
andy_xor_andrew wrote: post #18

> former Dean of Electronics Engineering and Computer Science at Peking University, has noted that Chinese data makes up only 1.3 percent of global large-model datasets (The Paper, March 24). Reflecting these concerns, the Ministry of State Security (MSS) has issued a stark warning that “poisoned data” (数据投毒) could “mislead public opinion” (误导社会舆论) (Sina Finance, August 5). from a technical point of view, I suppose i…

I was thinking about this yesterday. My personal opinion is that the PRC will face a self created headwind that likely, structurally, will prevent them from leading in AI. As the model get's more powerful, you can't simply train the model on your narrative if it doesn't align with real data/world. At some capacity, the model will notice and then it becomes a can of worms. This means they need to train the model to be…

> As the model get's more powerful, you can't simply train the model on your narrative if it doesn't align with real data/world.

What makes you think they have no control over the 'real data/world' that will be fed into training it? What makes you think they can't exercise the necessary control over the gatekeeper firms, to train and bias the models appropriately?

And besides, if truth and lack of double-think was a pre-requisite for AI training, we wouldn't be training AI. Our written materials have no shortage of bullshit and biases that reflect our culture's prevailing zeitgheist. (Which does not necessarily overlap with objective reality... And neither does the subsequent 'alignment' pass that everyone's twisting their knickers in trying to get right.)

Re: PRC elites voice AI-skepticism

#72

Post by vkou »

intalentive wrote: post #62

>Chinese elites have warned of AI-induced labor displacement that could exacerbate challenges related to unemployment and inequality. Nie Huihua (聂辉华), deputy dean of the National Academy of Development and Strategy at Renmin University, has stated that AI adoption benefits business owners, not workers Ruling elites that consider the interests of the majority? Novel idea.

China operates on the principle that as long as the country as a whole is making steady forward progress, it won't have to deal with revolution. Hundreds of millions of people have, in their lifetimes, gone from having to go outside to shit in an outhouse to first-world lifestyles.

Our elites, on the other hand, are way too secure and confident in where they are at to even pretend to care about things like public progress.

Re: PRC elites voice AI-skepticism

#73

Post by refurb »

janalsncm wrote: post #53
inglor_cz wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We should probably wait before declaring any decisions "incredibly reasonable". After all, the outcomes of previous rationally-sounding decisions were mixed. One-child policy, intended to prevent overpopulation, made Chinese birth deficit worse than it would have to be - if it were phased out by 1995 or so, there would likely be at least 100 million more young people now. Chinese real estate bubble popped and had to…

When Evergrande went down in 2021 a lot of commentary said this would take their whole economy down (or worse) similar to how the subprime mortgage bubble took down the US economy in 2007. That didn’t really happen.

The problem is still unfolding. The debt overhang still exists from the housing bubble and is dragging on the economy.

It’s a problem that hasn’t been solved yet.

Re: PRC elites voice AI-skepticism

#74

Post by skissane »

XenophileJKO wrote: post #33
andy_xor_andrew wrote: post #18

> former Dean of Electronics Engineering and Computer Science at Peking University, has noted that Chinese data makes up only 1.3 percent of global large-model datasets (The Paper, March 24). Reflecting these concerns, the Ministry of State Security (MSS) has issued a stark warning that “poisoned data” (数据投毒) could “mislead public opinion” (误导社会舆论) (Sina Finance, August 5). from a technical point of view, I suppose i…

I was thinking about this yesterday. My personal opinion is that the PRC will face a self created headwind that likely, structurally, will prevent them from leading in AI. As the model get's more powerful, you can't simply train the model on your narrative if it doesn't align with real data/world. At some capacity, the model will notice and then it becomes a can of worms. This means they need to train the model to be…

> As the model get's more powerful, you can't simply train the model on your narrative if it doesn't align with real data/world.

> At some capacity, the model will notice and then it becomes a can of worms.

I think this is conflating “is” and “ought”, fact and value.

People convince themselves that their own value system is somehow directly entailed by raw facts, such that mastery of the facts entail acceptance of their values, and unwillingness to accept those values is an obstacle to the mastery of the facts-but it isn’t true.

Colbert quipped that “Reality has a liberal bias”-but does it really? Or is that just more bankrupt Fukuyama-triumphalism which will insist it is still winning all the way to its irreversible demise?

It isn’t clear that reality has any particular ideological bias-and if it does, it isn’t clear that bias is actually towards contemporary Western progressivism-maybe its bias is towards the authoritarianism of the CCP, Russia, Iran, the Gulf States-all of which continue to defy Western predictions of collapse-or towards their (possibly milder) relatives such as Modi’s India or Singapore or Trumpism. The biggest threat to the CCP’s future is arguably demographics-but that’s not an argument that reality prefers Western progressivism (whose demographics aren’t that great either), that’s an argument that reality prefers the Amish and Kiryas Joel (see Eric Kaufmann’s “Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?”)

Re: PRC elites voice AI-skepticism

#75

Post by 127 »

stickfigure wrote: post #69

All of this handwringing is so strange. Right now, as we speak, there are giant teams of people doing their best to build AI-powered killer robots. They mostly come in the shape of flying suicide drones. Dumb versions currently kill hundreds to thousands of people per day in Ukraine. There's an arms race to automate them so they can work without an interruptible human remote control. In this context, worrying about A…

Yeah, this is one of those points that are likely to get drowned out in the noise, until they are too late to do anything about.

Re: PRC elites voice AI-skepticism

#76

Post by letmevoteplease »

"The latest survey data available, compiled by researchers at CAS, revealed that most experts hold negative attitudes towards LLM development"

Let's check the source...[1]

"The survey was conducted in 2021 from May to July."

...

[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20250903025427/https:/long-term-...

Re: PRC elites voice AI-skepticism

#77

Post by torben-friis »

skissane wrote: post #74
XenophileJKO wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was thinking about this yesterday. My personal opinion is that the PRC will face a self created headwind that likely, structurally, will prevent them from leading in AI. As the model get's more powerful, you can't simply train the model on your narrative if it doesn't align with real data/world. At some capacity, the model will notice and then it becomes a can of worms. This means they need to train the model to be…

> As the model get's more powerful, you can't simply train the model on your narrative if it doesn't align with real data/world. > At some capacity, the model will notice and then it becomes a can of worms. I think this is conflating “is” and “ought”, fact and value. People convince themselves that their own value system is somehow directly entailed by raw facts, such that mastery of the facts entail acceptance of th…

I think you misunderstood the poster.

The implication is not that a truthful model would spread western values. The implication is that western values tolerate dissenting opinion far more than authoritarian governments.

An AI saying that the government policies are ineffective is not a super scandal that would bring the parent company to collapse, not even in the Trump administration. an AI in China attacking the party’s policies is illegal (either in theory or practice).

Re: PRC elites voice AI-skepticism

#78

Post by MengerSponge »

bloppe wrote: post #68
Terr_ wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Others answered the main reason, but sometimes I find myself using "PRC" to indicate a particular government (~1950-Present) which unlike "China" excludes past dynasties, and is less-likely to be interpreted as referring to the people or culture. For example, the potential differences between: "France has always been X." "The French republic has always been X." "The French monarchy has always been X."

Which republic lol we're on #5

The French Republic has always existed in the nuclear age?

The French Republic has always been founded by De Gaulle?

Re: PRC elites voice AI-skepticism

#79

Post by pfannkuchen »

intalentive wrote: post #64
XenophileJKO wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was thinking about this yesterday. My personal opinion is that the PRC will face a self created headwind that likely, structurally, will prevent them from leading in AI. As the model get's more powerful, you can't simply train the model on your narrative if it doesn't align with real data/world. At some capacity, the model will notice and then it becomes a can of worms. This means they need to train the model to be…

>As the model get's more powerful, you can't simply train the model on your narrative if it doesn't align with real data/world. That’s what “AI alignment” is. Doesn’t seem to be hurting Western models.

Western models can be lead off the reservation pretty easily, at least at this point. I’ve gotten some pretty gnarly un-PC “opinions” out of ChatGPT. So if people are influenced by that kind of stuff, it does seem to be hurting in the way the PRC is worried about.

Re: PRC elites voice AI-skepticism

#80

Post by A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 »

intalentive wrote: post #64
XenophileJKO wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was thinking about this yesterday. My personal opinion is that the PRC will face a self created headwind that likely, structurally, will prevent them from leading in AI. As the model get's more powerful, you can't simply train the model on your narrative if it doesn't align with real data/world. At some capacity, the model will notice and then it becomes a can of worms. This means they need to train the model to be…

>As the model get's more powerful, you can't simply train the model on your narrative if it doesn't align with real data/world. That’s what “AI alignment” is. Doesn’t seem to be hurting Western models.

It is. It seems you can't seem to be able to tell why though. There is some qualified value in alignment, but what it is being used for is on verge of silliness. At best, it is neutering it in ways we are now making fun of China for. At best.
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