Live data from Hacker News

Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

goldmansachs.com

71–80 of 130 posts

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#72
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Battery swapping stations looks a lot more expensive and failure prone compared to fast chargers. I think 250kW flat charging curves are almost as convenient. Go to pee and scroll HN for one minute and voilà.

I believe GP might be taking about an add-on, not a substitute for the existing battery. Perhaps a tiny trailer hooked up to a standardized coupling that you rent when you are venturing out on something that's more than an hour of driving. It would mostly be a challenge for mechanical engineers, to come up with some solution that does not ruin driving characteristics too. Perhaps even involving some heavily computeri…

You say won’t happen, but there are Chinese companies that offer you different size batteries based on need.

Going cross country? Swap out for a massive battery. Just doing city runs? Get the smaller lighter cheaper battery

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#73
post #16

We would need a standardized, replaceable battery pack that takes us 300-500 km. That would eliminate the risk of expensive battery service and make recharging instant at service station.

Battery swapping stations looks a lot more expensive and failure prone compared to fast chargers. I think 250kW flat charging curves are almost as convenient. Go to pee and scroll HN for one minute and voilà.

That may be, but BYD has made it work reliably and enables you to do battery-as-a-service which actually makes a lot of sense for EVs, since that's usually the lifetime limitation. Second hand EVs become actually viable that way.

Plus, fast charging wears out the battery sooner, reducing car lifetime even further. Not very cashmoney from an ecological nor an actual cash money perspective. If you're gonna spend 2x the ICE car cost on an EV it should at least last you longer.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want people to choose one thing, then you want it to be better than or at least as good as the alternatives. The idea that EVs need to be comparable to ICE vehicles isn’t just some silly argument, it’s literally the choice that consumers are faced with if they want to buy a car. Even if longer range travel is only 1% of what consumers will do with their car (which I’m sure is a number you just made up), why wo…

I think it’s unreasonable for people to think everything has to be business as usual whereas the true cost of a galon of fuel should have been 50 dollars if we facor in the environmental cost. I think I don’t like that people see consumption as a birthright, and pretend there aren’t any consequences.

This is the main reason I never plan on buying one. I really hate all of the car-driven-by-a-computer functionality. I don’t want to drive a car where an internal computer can take over control of the vehicle, I especially don’t want one where the computer in charge of the car can connect to a network, I never want to drive one that has a mandatory always on connection. I also really want buttons, dials and switches, and think a yoke is such a stupid idea for a road car…

Plenty of ICE vehicles are starting to get these features as well, but I don’t buy those cars either, and all of the half decent EVs seem to have (nearly) all of those features I hate, configured in the worst way I could possibly imagine.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the not too distant future there will be contact less charging everywhere, at Walmart, at work, at home.

In the near future, electric vehicles will be obsolete and we'll be running off rainwater and people will be parking their cars outside to harvest it. California will be mostly unlivable.

Luckily not living in California but at the baltic sea, 50m above sea level, 2km from the coast.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#76
post #67
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Range is kinda irrelevant if you live in a place where filling stations are ubiquitous. Going 850 km in my old petrol-powered car required just one five-minute stop.

850 km without breaks?

Pee break while filling up the car but not beyond that. I had some food on me so I could wait to have a proper meal until I got to my destination.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#77
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"fast chargers." Or contact less, constant charging at traffic lights, during parking, on the highway. I'm sure there are people in 1900 who said, "Cars will never work, because I need to by petroleum in a pharmacy!" ignoring how technology will progress. If you had told them, there will be a "gas station" everywhere, those people would have called you crazy.

As cool as an inductive charging strip would be, offhand, the inherent losses as well as practically microwaving the underside of the car, would probably both be too much. Now, parking lots where a robot lifts an underside contact up if there's a match, that might just work.

Wirless charging my phone is idiotic from an energy point of view, but convenient.

I do thing the last 20.000 years of human progress has been driven by convenience (and security).

I'd bet for the more convenient solution every day.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#78
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If people bought cars for their median usage, they'd buy cars with like 1.2 seats and that top out at 70 km/h.

That would not be a bad option to get smaller compared to the small tanks that people are driving right now. Cars are one of the most inefficient form of transport anyways and driving almost never makes sense on large distances. Instead of a large flow of people driving 600km to go to the same place with a single seat used each only once per year, what you would want is public transport instead on those routes, that…

I remember in Taiwan they had roads and overpasses for scooters. You could rework cities to support small low speed vehicles.

The US could build more mass transit.

As the work from home vs return to the office struggle shows bashing business to relocate closer to where people work has some merit.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the not too distant future there will be contact less charging everywhere, at Walmart, at work, at home.

In the near future, electric vehicles will be obsolete and we'll be running off rainwater and people will be parking their cars outside to harvest it. California will be mostly unlivable.

Just use salt water from the ocean instead. It's got electrolytes, it's what the cars crave.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#80

I've been calling this shot for years. The cost optimization runway for EVs is much longer than for gas cars. Their adoption will eventually be a pure numbers game as new electric becomes cost competitive with used gas. That's how the pragmatic adoption will happen. You don't need, for instance, catalytic converters or a bunch of other expensive, low tolerance parts and since the fuel storage is electricity, new chem…

Are you saying a new EV will ever be cost competitive with a used gas car? If so, I disagree, unless heavy penalties are imposed on using an ICE.
Post reply on HN