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'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

theatlantic.com

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Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#71

Post by ajross »

akgerber wrote: post #59
ajross wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could play games, take pictures, send them to friends, surf the web, chat, "share my life" and meet new people with computers fifteen years ago . The iPad has made that process easier and better, and to some extent cheaper. And it's a great product. But that's not "disruption", it's just plain old improvement.

People could do everything an Apple II or IBM PC could do fifteen years before those machines came out. But most people didn't, because it was extremely expensive and cumbersome.

Right, and that made the microcomputer a disruptive technology. Web browsing fifteen years ago wasn't "extremely expensive and cumbersome", it was cheap and pervasive.

Ergo: the iPad is not a disruptive technology. It's just an improvement on existing stuff.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#72

Post by ippisl »

recursive wrote: post #8
Bud wrote: post #5

Who cares what this guy thinks? He doesn't count either the iPhone or iPad among the most important innovations of the last 5 years, but two of his 4 choices are about cars, and another is Google Goggles. He also surmises that Silicon Valley is dead because of a few observations about Facebook, while ignoring that Apple has become the largest company in the history of the known universe.

He's absolutely correct. Automated cars will have a much bigger effect than iPads. So much time is wasted driving.

I think you should include the iphone and ipad together because they're pretty similar.

Cheap smartphones/tablets will totally transform the third world.

One good example is education:a billion+ people in the third world have awful or nonexistent education.Just imagine them having access to the best teaching in the world via khan academy, coursera etc. How will this change the world ?

What else could cheap smartphones/tablets do for the third world ? help tranform healthcare ? let them organize into big groups to achieve things? let marketers of usefull stuff cheaply reach them ?

The thing is that wasting commute time is a small problem relative to the problems the third world suffer from.And smartphones might have a big role to play in solving those.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#73

Post by ajross »

maayank wrote: post #53
ajross wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could play games, take pictures, send them to friends, surf the web, chat, "share my life" and meet new people with computers fifteen years ago . The iPad has made that process easier and better, and to some extent cheaper. And it's a great product. But that's not "disruption", it's just plain old improvement.

"I could play games, take pictures, send them to friends, surf the web, chat, "share my life" and meet new people with computers fifteen years ago. The iPad has made that process easier and better, and to some extent cheaper." and more accesible to ordinary people.

"Ordinary people" weren't browsing the web 15 years ago? I have a truck full of AOL disks and one stock market boom/bust cycle that says otherwise.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#74

Post by im3w1l »

akgerber wrote: post #63
untog wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those comparisons aren't even nearly on the same scale. A car doesn't just offer convenience, it offers trips that were previously impossible. It is not possible to walk from Seattle to Portland in any kind of meaningful timeframe. An iPad, on the other hand, makes a few tasks marginally quicker, but is incapable of other tasks. It is marginally more portable. Yes, there are other benefits (as you state) but they are…

What makes a timeframe meaningful? Many of the settlers of the American West (including Portland and Seattle) walked there from Missouri alongside their wagons.

A car makes commuting possible. That changes how cities are built. It integrates states and countries economically and socially.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#75

Post by untog »

akgerber wrote: post #63
untog wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those comparisons aren't even nearly on the same scale. A car doesn't just offer convenience, it offers trips that were previously impossible. It is not possible to walk from Seattle to Portland in any kind of meaningful timeframe. An iPad, on the other hand, makes a few tasks marginally quicker, but is incapable of other tasks. It is marginally more portable. Yes, there are other benefits (as you state) but they are…

What makes a timeframe meaningful? Many of the settlers of the American West (including Portland and Seattle) walked there from Missouri alongside their wagons.

Seriously?

It has nothing to do with the journey itself, it is what that journey allows you to do. The settlers of the American West could not make that trip with any kind of regularity because it took so long. These days, you could live in Portland and work in Seattle. Admittedly, it would be miserable, but still. The ability to commute is life-changing.

Compare that to the iPad. It does make reading my e-mail slightly more convenient, yes. It allows a number of different UI interactions. None of these are life changing.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#76

Post by jonmc12 »

The problem Steve Blank is pointing out is one of solving quality of life problems, and sustainability problems when there is easier money to be made in entertaining consumers. Facebook just accentuates the point. Its a bit idealistic to think that Silicon Valley ever really had it right or that government funding is the solution to innovation of 'real' problems.

People have a large dimension of needs. Some of these needs, while necessary for survival thousands of years ago, are now obsolete as a survival utility function. McDonald's designs french fries to exploit these needs; Facebook builds social mechanisms. These needs will always be there - but at the same time there is a finite limit to the amount of attention on earth that can be expended fulfilling these old-world needs - it will plateau when human attention is exploited to the fullest. Meanwhile, there is arguably no cap for fulfilling the set of user needs that make the quality of human life better, and give our civilization the ability to sustain its own existence. Over the long-term, the set of human needs that have utility in our current environment should present the best investment opportunities - at least I sure hope so.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#77

Post by recoiledsnake »

Bud wrote: post #5

Who cares what this guy thinks? He doesn't count either the iPhone or iPad among the most important innovations of the last 5 years, but two of his 4 choices are about cars, and another is Google Goggles. He also surmises that Silicon Valley is dead because of a few observations about Facebook, while ignoring that Apple has become the largest company in the history of the known universe.

>while ignoring that Apple has become the largest company in the history of the known universe

Sorry that's Microsoft, not Apple (even if during the dot com boom).

From Wiki:

Record Market Capitalization

On December 30, 1999 Microsoft reached an intraday high share price of $119.94[3]. With 5,160,024,593 outstanding shares (as of November 30, 1999),[4] it had a market capitalization of $618.9 billion. This was the highest market capitalization ever reached by a publicly traded company[5]. Adjusting for inflation to 2012, Microsoft's market capitalization would be $846 billion[

Apple only reached $600B.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#78

Post by hgh »

TechNewb wrote: post #50
recursive wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's absolutely correct. Automated cars will have a much bigger effect than iPads. So much time is wasted driving.

How about living in, or building, cities that have good enough public infastructure that cars aren't needed. That would have an even larger effect.

I wonder how much is cause and how much is effect. One of the reasons that we have the suburbs is everyone owning cheap cars and getting cheap petrol. Not to discount good urban design and public infrastructure, but if there are autonomous cars, I suspect there will be corresponding influence on urban planning. Likely for the better.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#79

Post by recursive »

akg wrote: post #15
recursive wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's absolutely correct. Automated cars will have a much bigger effect than iPads. So much time is wasted driving.

If time is wasted driving, is building more efficient cars really the solution? I would venture that technology that makes the world a lot smaller and puts information at your fingertips, e.g., tablets, phones, social networks, etc. will be a much bigger disrupter in the way we live our current lives. Maybe in the future we won't have to drive as much since we can just get things done without having to waste time in…

Many people actually have to do things in certain physical places. I do most of my driving getting to and from bike races. Better access to information will not help with that.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#80

Post by mkramlich »

Bud wrote: post #5

Who cares what this guy thinks? He doesn't count either the iPhone or iPad among the most important innovations of the last 5 years, but two of his 4 choices are about cars, and another is Google Goggles. He also surmises that Silicon Valley is dead because of a few observations about Facebook, while ignoring that Apple has become the largest company in the history of the known universe.

He's Steve Blank. He probably has way more accomplishments, credentials, followers and respect than you do. You really should look before you leap before making comments like that. Also, he's clearly speaking at a strategic, coarse-grained level.

Elon Musk: I think we can put a man on Mars within 10 years.

Bud: Who cares what this guy thinks? (...)

see what I mean?

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