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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#71

Post by samelawrence »

- 2024 will see the rise of job-keeping as a core skill set for everyone except the most technical or most soft-skilled persons. Individuals will need to prove to their employer organizations that they provide more value than a bot, and you'll see an accompanying wave of "career maintenance" influencers and consultants. It'll be comparable to "win the interview" culture, so not a huge thing, but definitely a thing. This ties in with what others have said about the rise of individual competence proving as a trend.

- People will be so sick of online dating that "singles culture" will make a come-back, primarily for millennials who are 35+ and freaking out about life priorities (kids, partner, etc.) I expect to see lots of "speed dating" and stuff like that appear out of nowhere as everyone become more sexually open-minded but also wants human connection.

- The US government will begin to talk about 10 year + plans for the first time in over a centry. Biden will do a bragging tour on the infrastructure bill leading into the election and "long termism" will become a meme.

- Cannabis will be re-scheduled to Schedule III and will become basically legal for all Americans.

- Bitcoin will be strong, all other cryptos will flounder. Ethereum will stay alive, and NFTs will make a bit of a come-back, but not like the first wave.

- People will make serious efforts to stop owning cars and demand more transit options from their cities and townships. These plans will be very glamourous and take 10 years to complete (or get started). Some may stop owning phones.

- Alcohol will take on a "weird" place in culture in response to growing cannabis and psychedelics usage. Some people will become very proud of their drinking and others will judge them very harshly. It will probably end up a culture war issue.

- We will see extraordinary acts of public violence in American streets, with responsibility probably shared between citizens, gangs, and the police.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#72

Post by gibbonsrcool »

caprock wrote: post #67
gibbonsrcool wrote: post #6

I predict Google will flounder on multiple fronts. They’ll either continue empty promises of a ChatGPT killer or release one that will be 2nd rate. Meanwhile more adoption of ChatGPT and the like will mean less search and less ad revenue. Azure and AWS will take more market share from GDP. They’ll release ad-blocker unfriendly chrome and users will switch to Firefox. YouTube will expand its trial of not operating wit…

> They’re the most user-hostile of the big tech companies and I want them to lose. I'm curious, why do you want them to lose given you aren't forced to use their services?

Monopolistic practices, dominating search engine market, anticompetitive behavior in online advertising, collusion with other tech companies on hiring practices, privacy concerns over user data collection, biased search results favoring its products, tax avoidance strategies in multiple countries, anti-union activities, censorship in certain countries to comply with local laws, allegations of workplace discrimination and harassment, misuse of market dominance in Android operating system.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#73

Post by Red_Leaves_Flyy »

rospaya wrote: post #45
atonse wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not OP but I’ve always felt good VR will create parallel industries for travel, entertainment, etc. in ways way more interesting than gaming. Think of examples like seeing the Grand Canyon for 1/10 the price if you’re disabled or elderly. Or watching an official Taylor Swift concert like you’re actually there, for 1/2 price. No limits on ticket sales.

I haven't been to the Grand Canyon, but I've been to hundreds of concerts and I assure you, there's no existing tech that will make it "like you're actually there." The same goes for owning a house in VR worlds.

Vr will make the experience better. Going to concerts sucks unless it’s a super tiny crowd. So if you want the intimate experience with A level acts you need to be really rich. The intersections of 3d/vr and digital environments enabled heretofore inconceivable experiences that can be brought everywhere with internet.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#74

Post by nailer »

Georgelemental wrote: post #58
nailer wrote: post #55

Hamas is defeated and Gaza is policed by the UAE. Movement across the border to Israel doesn’t resume. Movement across the border to Egypt continues to not happen.

Why in the world would the UAE want to get involved in that mess?

You’ll gave to ask them that but the Hamas attacks were to disrupt normalisation of relations between Saudi, UAE and Israel, and some of the better analysts have said that was the plan. Taking a guess, I imagine it would be that regional peace benefits everyone.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#75

Post by nailer »

ImJamal wrote: post #69
nailer wrote: post #55

Hamas is defeated and Gaza is policed by the UAE. Movement across the border to Israel doesn’t resume. Movement across the border to Egypt continues to not happen.

Does the UAE actually want Gaza? It seems like a country a bit closer would be better off taking control even if UAE wants it. However, it is important to note that none of the neighbors want the Palestinians (Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan). They may want the land though?

Nobody wants Gaza, not Israel, not Egypt, and not the UAE. However the UAE want regional peace and don’t like seeing Arabs be poor.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#77

Post by nailer »

laidoffamazon wrote: post #66
nailer wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would Trump refuse to debate?

Same reason why he's not debating his Republican rivals now; he thinks he's going to win.

Yes he’ll win the nomination, but he debated Biden and Hillary Clinton and there is no reason to think he would do otherwise in 2024

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#78

Post by ImJamal »

nailer wrote: post #75
ImJamal wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does the UAE actually want Gaza? It seems like a country a bit closer would be better off taking control even if UAE wants it. However, it is important to note that none of the neighbors want the Palestinians (Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan). They may want the land though?

Nobody wants Gaza, not Israel, not Egypt, and not the UAE. However the UAE want regional peace and don’t like seeing Arabs be poor.

Well, I think most countries in the area want the land (or wouldn't mind having it, if it was given to them). I've seen some estimates of 1.7 billion barrels of oil in Gaza. I doubt any of the neighboring countries would turn that down.

The issue is nobody wants the people.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#79

Post by tonfreed »

I think we're going to start coming out of the social media fugue. I know more and more people who have stopped using broadcast and algorithmic feeds, and I feel like it's a genuinely positive change where we can disagree but still be friends again. I'm optimistic that division politics is going to start losing elections and tanking cultural endeavors more consistently, and we'll get back to actually talking to our neighbors and seeing some fresh ideas in media.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#80

Post by runjake »

armchairhacker wrote: post #18

The Vision Pro becomes wildly popular at least to a subset of the population. It’s continuously sold out and people scalp for absurd prices (or try to, idk if Apple will prevent this in some way; by absurd, I’m talking minimum $10,000, maybe over $1,000,000). Some people become addicted to it like the immersion trope, they don’t care about anything else anymore, stop participating in life, neglect their health, finan…

I think that version 1 won’t sell well, but Apple knows this and they are quickly working on a far more affordable v2 or v3 and adoption will continue to increase until it becomes a significant new form of computing.

I see Vision Pro’s rise ramp looking much like Apple Watch’s did before Apple dialed in the Watch’s purpose, hardware, and pricing. You might remember Watch S0 units having obscene return rates. I was one of those who mocked the Watch. Now I wear one. Watch didn’t really kick in until Series 2.

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