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Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

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Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#71

Maybe because in the places where most news are written (DC, NY, SF) crime has spiked drastically? EG: "D.C. Police have responded to 227 homicides so far in 2023. That's up 34% from the same time last year. It also tops 2021's total for the year, which was the highest since 2003. That means the homicide rate in the District is the highest it's been in 20 years, and climbing, with two months left in the year." https:…

Homicide is a tiny fraction of all crime, and the numbers of homicides are low enough in large US cities that small changes can lead to fairly large percentages.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#72

The question isn't whether it is or isn't rising, but what voters consider acceptable. If voters find the current level of crime unacceptable, it doesn't matter what the broader trend is. I personally find the concept of open air drug use, retail theft, and shit on the street unacceptable, I could care less what the numbers say and will vote based off of what I see with my own eyes. And whether or not that's "statist…

But you don't even know what to vote for because no one knows what policies reduce crime.

We do know that stricter sentencing doesn't work, but outside of that there are a million guesses.

You could easily vote for someone who pretends to know and makes the problem worse.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#73
They probably think it's rising because it rose substantially in 2020/21 and is nowhere close to returning to the typical levels of the 20 years prior.

St Louis should have all-time low total homicides, it's experiencing terminal population collapse. There are American suburbs similar in population to St Louis. So much of this article is just contrarian clickbait.

On the other hand, Detroit feels significantly safer than it did 10 years ago. It's still desperately poor, but it's a pleasant place to visit now. It's pretty, and it has clung onto its culture and history. For better and worse, these things tend to come back around. That doesn't happen if we pretend nothing is wrong.

I think "news" entertainment has painted this situation as a return to '70s-'80s violence, and that's not even close to reality. I'm not fleeing to the burbs, or going outside with a bulletproof vest. There's a problem, but it's solvable, and it won't take decades to fix.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#74
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It describes a process in which crime reporting progressively gets further from the ground truth over time. This isn't new.

All of those incentives were in play 50 years ago. You may as well say you just don't like statistics that you disagree with.

As discussed in the bullet points, those incentives create a sort of natural selection which changes how the statistics are reported over time.

It's not like we are measuring length or temperature. The data has a degree of human subjectivity when being recorded. It seems normal for that subjectivity to shift over time, especially when we are taking about different humans over timespans of decades.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#75

So much knowledge of various places (downtown of my city, for example) is not first hand, but from (social) media. I'm reminded of this video from Bowling for Columbine, where they stroll around South Central LA, and realize its pleasant and nothing crazy is happening. https://vimeo.com/39131010 Even without any nefarious motivations, simple survivorship bias will mean any form of media will report on the exceptions…

> So much knowledge of various places (downtown of my city, for example) is not first hand, but from (social) media.

> I'm reminded of this video from Bowling for Columbine, where they stroll around South Central LA, and realize its pleasant and nothing crazy is happening.

You might have a point, but:

1. A citation to a partisan propagandist shouldn't convince anyone.

2. The segment seems to rest on the fallacious assumption that dangerous areas can never be pleasant and will continuously have something "crazy" happening. I mean, there are literal warzones where you could probably manage to film a five minute stroll through some pleasant meadow (due to lulls in the fighting).

I think the truth is that it's just hard to get a true impression of a place without actually spending a lot of time there.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#77
I have a some personal anecdotes from the past few years living in Los Angeles that might help explain the discrepancy between people's perceptions and the crime data.

A couple years ago two cars pulled up in front of the house across the street from mine, four people got out and started trying to break in by throwing a rock through the front window. The noise was loud enough to alert myself and a couple other neighbors on the street who came out to see the burglars fleeing back to their cars after the homeowner scared them away with a gun.

I called 911 and waited on hold for 2 hours for someone to answer only to tell me that the only the people who had their house broken into could file a report and to have them call back. When I went to tell this to the neighbor it turned out that he did try to report it but gave up after waiting on hold for an hour. In the end this home break in was never reported and did not make it into the crime data.

Last year, living in a different part of Los Angeles, I woke up at 4am to the sound of people yelling and bottles breaking outside. There was a group of very noticeably drunk people sitting on the hoods of their cars drinking in the street. I watched them long enough to determine they were all wasted, at least one of them would be driving, and if any of them drove they'd be a danger to themselves and others. Again I called 911, waited a half hour, and was told they'd dispatch someone. A half hour later they all got into separate cars and did indeed drive away, leaving empty beer bottles next to where their cars had been. It's hard to know if LAPD actually came to check because this all happened on the street adjacent to the back gate of the Hollywood police department and around 6am it gets a lot of traffic from police cars heading back to the station at the end of the shift. As far as I can tell this crime was never reported and did not get included in the data.

Also within the last year, on the same street adjacent to the police station, a homeless man seemingly in a manic episode was vandalizing parked cars while screaming about killing people of a certain protected group. This time I called 911, waited 20 minutes and told the operator what I saw. Because the homeless man had wandered to a different street and I couldn't see him anymore I was told it's not an ongoing crime and to call the LAPD non-emergency line so they can take the report. I called the non-emergency line and reached their voicemail. This is another crime that wasn't reported and didn't get included in the data.

The crime statistics are only as good as the data being collected. From personal experience I've witnessed 3 crimes which should have contributed to crime statistics but didn't. My suspicion is that cities across America are having similar problems simply taking in and documenting reports of crime. It could very well be that crime is actually rising, people are correctly perceiving that crime is rising, yet the data to substantiate the rising crime rate isn't getting recorded.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#79
post #71

Maybe because in the places where most news are written (DC, NY, SF) crime has spiked drastically? EG: "D.C. Police have responded to 227 homicides so far in 2023. That's up 34% from the same time last year. It also tops 2021's total for the year, which was the highest since 2003. That means the homicide rate in the District is the highest it's been in 20 years, and climbing, with two months left in the year." https:…

Homicide is a tiny fraction of all crime, and the numbers of homicides are low enough in large US cities that small changes can lead to fairly large percentages.

Every crime category is spiking in DC.

EG: petty crime: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/crime/washington-dc-...

carjacking: https://www.nbcwashington.com/investigations/whats-driving-d...

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing data from the past 3 years showing it coming back down. In a conversation about current trends, it's important not to link to a dataset that only ends in 2020.

In that imgur plot see it ending in 2022, and crime has barely bulged after exploding in 2020-21, where there was the largest increase in the entire time series. We are basically back to 1995 homicide levels which is insane

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