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Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

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Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#12

There is a growing consensus that there is no point in reporting a crime to the police in most instances since it will take up your time doing so and either the police either won't even try to catch the perp or will fail to do so--and even if they do he will not receive a significant sanction.

There also seems to be the chance that by calling the police you yourself get shot by them.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#13
post #8

For a while now, there has been complete suppression/derision of people who use their own life anecdotes to come to conclusions about society. The church of only using rigorous statistics to draw conclusions is a method of thought control.

You mean backing things up with facts instead of anecdotes is thought control? What?

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Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#14

For a while now, there has been complete suppression/derision of people who use their own life anecdotes to come to conclusions about society. The church of only using rigorous statistics to draw conclusions is a method of thought control.

I spy a paradoxical comment

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#15
post #9

"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully fee…

I keep posting this because there’s always this comment. There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes. Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US. And homicides are decreasing.

Besides that throughout the 2000s and 2010s when crime hit historic lows in the US Americans continued to say crime was increasing.

We’re talking about murders going down by an order of magnitude in many cities and people were still saying crime was increasing.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#16
post #9

"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully fee…

I keep posting this because there’s always this comment. There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes. Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US. And homicides are decreasing.

What about overdoses which are at all time highs? Also, there are crimes beyond murder that affect quality of life. It seems like a fallacy to argue that because murders are down that all crime is down...

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#17

For a while now, there has been complete suppression/derision of people who use their own life anecdotes to come to conclusions about society. The church of only using rigorous statistics to draw conclusions is a method of thought control.

I spy a paradoxical comment

The human brain can understand the world without collecting statistically significant samples

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#18
post #9

"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully fee…

I keep posting this because there’s always this comment. There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes. Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US. And homicides are decreasing.

No they are higher than theyve been in like 30 years (since mid 90s). And they have been trending up for like 10 years, not just pandemic thing.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#19
post #9

"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully fee…

I keep posting this because there’s always this comment. There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes. Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US. And homicides are decreasing.

What about deaths classified as suicide/accidental?

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#20
So much knowledge of various places (downtown of my city, for example) is not first hand, but from (social) media.

I'm reminded of this video from Bowling for Columbine, where they stroll around South Central LA, and realize its pleasant and nothing crazy is happening.

https://vimeo.com/39131010

Even without any nefarious motivations, simple survivorship bias will mean any form of media will report on the exceptions to the rule, not the rule itself. Don't substitute media input for first hand knowledge.

Since Covid+WfH, I've felt this acutely and had to remind myself online is not real life.

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