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Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

electrek.co

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Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#71

Post by vel0city »

daveFNbuck wrote: post #37
TheRealPomax wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you have to drive 15 minutes there and 15 minutes back, that's not faster than a fast-charge top-up at the fast charge point down the street, though. There's a critical density below which if you have a charge point nearby the nuisance of "going out for gas" and not being able to do anything else during that time isn't worth it compared to plugging in your car, and then just walking away for an hour. Especially if…

I don't think most people make a special trip just to get gas. It's usually a quick added stop along the way of another trip, which is less of a nuisance than having to make two small walks to move and plug/unplug your car.

But if there's no longer any gas stations on any of my usual trips, it'll become a special trip.

Also it's not fun having to make your trip even longer stopping to get gas. I'd prefer to just leave the house with a full tank every time.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#72

Post by speedgoose »

x86x87 wrote: post #38
speedgoose wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not a trivial exercise. I think it’s important to look at the future pollution and compare without going into the sunk cost fallacy. The pollution from your existing car cannot be taken back and I think there is no point to make this pollution "worth it". Producing a new vehicle, that will generate a lot of pollution too, may be better over time. It will depend on your electricity grid and how much you drive. Yo…

Producing the vehicle itself leads to pollution. The question is: is it better to buy a new vehicle (and polute a nonsignificant ammont) or is the polution of my current vehicle going to be less for its remaining life?

In my opinion, unless you destroy the new EV in its early life and the battery cannot be reused or recycled for some reasons, it's likely much better to sell your ICE now so it replaces a more polluting car.

You could also compare the pollution per km in the remaining lifetime of your current car, and the pollution per km in the remaining lifetime of a new EV. Your local electricity grid may improve over the years, but you could ignore that.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#73

Post by michaelmrose »

goles wrote: post #46
macNchz wrote: post #10

A couple of comments on the article point out that if gas stations start closing due to reduced demand, it will accelerate the effect by making it more cumbersome to own a gas car. Recently, some of the industrial area near my apartment in NYC was rezoned for housing, and nearly all of the local gas stations were torn down (not because of low demand but because a 15 story building would be more profitable). The resul…

Perhaps not applicable to NYC, but isnt it kind of troubling that people who cant afford a luxury vehicle (55-100k) could be put in a position where they have to spend more money (gas) to go fill up out of their way, taxed for being poor, or shut up and take public transit (if it even exists where they live)? Surely no one driving an EV ever got to their position to buy one driving an ICE. Edit: happy this comment in…

It is simply unnecessary to own a car in New York city and my impression is that poor folks in the city already largely don't own a car. The only way to maintain more gas stations than the market naturally demands is to subsidize them or otherwise distort the market. In NYC it would involve taxing everyone including the poor to subsidize the well off.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#74

Post by imjonse »

daoboy wrote: post #12

Can anyone recommend a good article comparing environmental lifecycle costs of EV vs combustion engine that include lithium and cobalt mining?

BTW, besides the impact on climate, it's worth taking into account the effect of tailpipe emissions on health. This is where EVs have a big advantage especially in crowded areas.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#75

Post by jncfhnb »

ben_w wrote: post #64
goles wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps not applicable to NYC, but isnt it kind of troubling that people who cant afford a luxury vehicle (55-100k) could be put in a position where they have to spend more money (gas) to go fill up out of their way, taxed for being poor, or shut up and take public transit (if it even exists where they live)? Surely no one driving an EV ever got to their position to buy one driving an ICE. Edit: happy this comment in…

"""The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money. Take boots, for example. ... A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while a poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet.""" - https://en.wikipedia.org/…

This effect is true but the thesis is dumb. The rich are rich because of the compounding effects of wealth. Not that small fraction spent on durable goods.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#76

Post by ben_w »

mahidol wrote: post #58

Motor fuel sales cannot be the sole main indicator for a "death spiral that can end oil". Oil/Petroleum products are massively employed in the manufacture of daily life items (pretty much maybe everything, not just plastics) and cutting the usage of petroleum products in that area will be the real death spiral that can end oil.

I think we only really care about the oil being burned, not merely used as chemical feedstock. In this regard we do also have to care about oil fuel heating, oil fuelled power stations, and the transport that uses oil derivatives but not normal petrol stations (flying, shipping, non-electrified rail, probably some others too), so I would still say this is a good start rather than the actual end of oil, but for different reasons to you.

Peak oil is still a thing, and we will still need to shift the feedstocks to something renewable, but the schedule doesn't need to be the same.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#78

Post by goles »

boringg wrote: post #57
goles wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps not applicable to NYC, but isnt it kind of troubling that people who cant afford a luxury vehicle (55-100k) could be put in a position where they have to spend more money (gas) to go fill up out of their way, taxed for being poor, or shut up and take public transit (if it even exists where they live)? Surely no one driving an EV ever got to their position to buy one driving an ICE. Edit: happy this comment in…

China has EVs that aren't luxury and I'm pretty sure Europe does as well if I am reading your comment correct you are trying to insinuate that EVs are luxury. If not your comment needs some clarity.

What is the least expensive EV one could buy in the middle of nowhere North America?

I'm open to anyones knowledge in this area I dont have but our primary mode of transportation when we were struggling was a $2,000 USD 30 year old Toyota.

If you don't think EVs are a luxury than we both need some clarity.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#79

Post by jncfhnb »

billfor wrote: post #42
macNchz wrote: post #10

A couple of comments on the article point out that if gas stations start closing due to reduced demand, it will accelerate the effect by making it more cumbersome to own a gas car. Recently, some of the industrial area near my apartment in NYC was rezoned for housing, and nearly all of the local gas stations were torn down (not because of low demand but because a 15 story building would be more profitable). The resul…

Where do you see convenient charging stations? Tesla shows 4 superchargers in all of Manhattan and 3 in Brooklyn, not including 3rd party stations that can take 2 hours to charge the car. What is the population of Manhattan and Brooklyn?

You don’t need the superchargers

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#80

Post by sannee »

boringg wrote: post #57
goles wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps not applicable to NYC, but isnt it kind of troubling that people who cant afford a luxury vehicle (55-100k) could be put in a position where they have to spend more money (gas) to go fill up out of their way, taxed for being poor, or shut up and take public transit (if it even exists where they live)? Surely no one driving an EV ever got to their position to buy one driving an ICE. Edit: happy this comment in…

China has EVs that aren't luxury and I'm pretty sure Europe does as well if I am reading your comment correct you are trying to insinuate that EVs are luxury. If not your comment needs some clarity.

> I'm pretty sure Europe does as well

Does it? A cursory search seems to put an (used) EV at around 10k$ at best. Poor people definitely do not drive 10k$ cars here. Hell, even my tech-adjacent friends in their twenties rarely own anything more expensive than 3k$-ish.

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