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Finland Becomes a Member of NATO on Tuesday 4 April

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Re: Finland Becomes a Member of NATO on Tuesday 4 April

#71

Post by bshipp »

causi wrote: post #65
alkonaut wrote: post #6

"I must invade a neighboring country to prevent having NATO on my doorstep" - Vladimir Vladimirovich, master strategist "Whoa, if countries are annexed willy nilly then we better join NATO before it happens to us" - Every single one of those doorsteps

It was never about NATO. It's about the Bessarabian Gap and the Black Sea. Putin wants the potential invasion routes into Russia.

No one was ever going to invade a country with ICBMs.

The invasion occurred because of Ukraine's movement toward the EU which, eventually, would curtail the ability of Putin and the oligarchs to swindle Russias oil and gas wealth through rampant price fixing and kick-backs. Everything else was rhetoric.

Re: Finland Becomes a Member of NATO on Tuesday 4 April

#73

Post by rossdavidh »

credit_guy wrote: post #56
IgorPartola wrote: post #47

As a Ukrainian immigrant living in the US the current situation in Ukraine is infuriating. I left Ukraine when I was a teenager nearly a quarter of a century ago and it was obvious to me then that sooner or later Russia would want its breadbasket back and an invasion would happen. How was this not clear to those in power? Zelinsky started the process of trying to get the country’s ducks in a row to be able to join NA…

I don't understand who you think is to blame here? Was NATO supposed to accept Ukraine without Ukraine applying for membership?

I believe Ukraine did apply, or at least indicate they wanted to. The real reason Ukraine did not get invited to join NATO is that, even after the 2014 invasion of Crimea, lots of people in Europe wanted to believe that it was still possible to do business with Russia, and that they would come around eventually. There are a lot of people who still believe that doing business with someone makes them come around to democracy eventually; this was also a reason given by President Clinton for normalizing trade with China (where it has also not worked).

It has been a bit of a political earthquake for Germany to find itself arming others, perhaps more even for the political elite than for the general population. I don't think it would have been possible to convince them that Ukraine should be admitted prior to 2022. Now, of course, attitudes are very different (thankfully), but prior to 2022 the plan for most of Europe (and honestly most of North America as well) was to be nice to Russia and they would come around, because otherwise they would lost to much money. It turns out that is a bad strategy.

Re: Finland Becomes a Member of NATO on Tuesday 4 April

#74

Post by cableshaft »

tommiegannert wrote: post #48
alkonaut wrote: post #6

"I must invade a neighboring country to prevent having NATO on my doorstep" - Vladimir Vladimirovich, master strategist "Whoa, if countries are annexed willy nilly then we better join NATO before it happens to us" - Every single one of those doorsteps

> I must invade a neighboring country to prevent having NATO on my doorstep Even without involving Finland, it's worse than that. If he successfully invades and conquers Ukraine, he will certainly have NATO at his doorstep. I doubt this was his real reasoning. Maybe the plan was to take only as much of Ukraine to show that he could , if he wanted to, take the whole. Effectively turning the Ukraine into a no-mans-land…

Technically NATO is already 'at their doorstep'. Norway, Estonia, and Latvia share a border with mainland Russia (with Estonia and Latvia being much closer to Moscow than Ukraine is), and Lithuania and Poland also directly border Kaliningrad, which is Russian territory, and Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey only have the Black Sea separating them.

Re: Finland Becomes a Member of NATO on Tuesday 4 April

#75

Post by manuelabeledo »

throwaway4aday wrote: post #68
alkonaut wrote: post #6

"I must invade a neighboring country to prevent having NATO on my doorstep" - Vladimir Vladimirovich, master strategist "Whoa, if countries are annexed willy nilly then we better join NATO before it happens to us" - Every single one of those doorsteps

Aggressive war is inexcusable and I condemn all nations that engage in it including Russia and the United States. Ukraine has a right to its sovereignty just as all other nations do, but what you posted is shallow thinking. Look at a map of Europe, put yourself in the mind of a highly suspicious and pessimistic person and ask yourself "how would I invade Russia?" "how do I get an SRBM or MRBM within striking range of…

> Look at a map of Europe, put yourself in the mind of a highly suspicious and pessimistic person and ask yourself "how would I invade Russia?" "how do I get an SRBM or MRBM within striking range of Moscow?" "how do I increase my ability to have Russian speaking agents plausibly cross into and out of Russia?"

You don't need Ukraine to do any of this. Poland and the Baltic states are NATO members already.

Re: Finland Becomes a Member of NATO on Tuesday 4 April

#76

Post by postingawayonhn »

Animatronio wrote: post #59
credit_guy wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand who you think is to blame here? Was NATO supposed to accept Ukraine without Ukraine applying for membership?

[flagged]

It probably would have deterred Russia from invading and saved most NATO countries a ton of money. Basically the entire point of NATO is to stop Russia going to war with its neighbiors.

And now Ukraine is going to be quite a week equipped and experienced ally. Certainly a country NATO should be happy to have on its side.

Re: Finland Becomes a Member of NATO on Tuesday 4 April

#77

Post by bshipp »

IgorPartola wrote: post #64
Animatronio wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Nobody is demanding anything of NATO. I am retroactively demanding that the Ukrainian leadership should have rooted out corruption and got Ukraine’s ducks in a row so that it could join NATO. And the whole point of NATO is that most smaller countries do not benefit NATO as much as the alliance benefits them. Yet the cumulative effect is more world peace. Besides, did you not notice the effect the war in Ukraine had o…

Ukraine's inability to root out corruption so that it could join the EU/NATO wasn't some national failing as much as a very active Russian FSB/SVR presence inside Ukraine that prevented any significant reforms. The invasion was an admittance that their underhanded techniques were failing and a more active method of intervention into Ukrainian politics was necessary.

Re: Finland Becomes a Member of NATO on Tuesday 4 April

#78

Post by rossdavidh »

globalise83 wrote: post #4

Excellent. Very much hope that enough pressure can be applied at all levels to ensure that Sweden is also soon approved by all NATO member states.

My impression is that Turkey does not believe the rest of NATO takes the threat to it from some Kurdish organizations seriously. I have no access to unbiased data to say whether there is any actual significant threat to Turkey's security from Kurdish groups in Sweden, but it does appear that Turkey actually believes this to be a problem.

The main risk here is that, now that Finland is a member of NATO, it is not clear that Sweden will feel itself needing to make any concessions to Turkey, but Turkey may still want to demand them. I would rather that Sweden be formally in NATO. Given that the four biggest Scandinavian nations have agreed to practically merge their air forces, whether or not Sweden is an actual member may not matter too much, though.

Re: Finland Becomes a Member of NATO on Tuesday 4 April

#79

Post by Animatronio »

IgorPartola wrote: post #64
Animatronio wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Nobody is demanding anything of NATO. I am retroactively demanding that the Ukrainian leadership should have rooted out corruption and got Ukraine’s ducks in a row so that it could join NATO. And the whole point of NATO is that most smaller countries do not benefit NATO as much as the alliance benefits them. Yet the cumulative effect is more world peace. Besides, did you not notice the effect the war in Ukraine had o…

[flagged]

Re: Finland Becomes a Member of NATO on Tuesday 4 April

#80

Post by Animatronio »

haspok wrote: post #67
Animatronio wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's necessarily a good idea. Ignoring the fact that no country should be pressured to accept becoming allies with some other country they don't like, what would Sweden expect from Turkey if, say, Russia invades?

The same as Turkey would expect of Sweden if, say, Russia invades. Please stop thinking that Turkey (or any other country) is doing a favor to Sweden (or to Finland) by accepting their NATO application. It benefits all parties - Russians included.

How would that benefit the Russians? What would the point of that be?
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