Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets • Hacker News Board

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#71

Post by genericuser314 » Tue, Jul 27, 2021, 9:06 PM UTC

warent wrote: post #24

monktastic1 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure I understand. Why deny something that you claim not to know enough about?

Isn't that the default stance in philosophy? Assume something is false until evidence proven true. You cannot begin with the assumption that something is true, otherwise we're back to the mystical dark ages of magic monsters and alchemy

Maybe you're thinking of Russell's teapot, which is the idea that the burden of proof lies upon a person making unfalsifiable claims? That's specifically for unfalsifiable claims.

Or maybe you're thinking of the burden of proof concept from jurisprudence? That is a high standard because it keeps innocent people from having their lives destroyed.

The IPCC reports [0], predicated upon the anthropogenic theory of climate change, predict a lot of people will have their lives destroyed, and the theory specifies the mechanism which will determine the magnitude. You and I as agents in democracies (I'm guessing) can help determine that magnitude - maybe whether it's millions of families displaced and destroyed or hundreds of millions.

I think the philosophical stance we should apply is the precautionary principle. If we're unsure of whether or not it is harmful that our activities are changing the composition of our atmosphere, of our oceans, and of our soil, we should at least, as a precaution, reduce the rate at which we're changing our environment.

[0] https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#72

Post by whatshisface » Tue, Jul 27, 2021, 9:07 PM UTC

eschulz wrote: post #13

xrd wrote: post #4

It's a great article. The real problem with evidence like this is that the "believer" must strive for 100% accuracy; that is really hard. The "skeptic" only needs to have one single piece of data turn out to be inaccurate, and then can doubt the entire thing; that is really easy. And, we can hold both things in our heads. I just went to the Newport Aquarium in Oregon. There is a terrific exhibit which shows a paleobo…

You're right, those of us reviewing evidence must strive for 100% accuracy. One of the issues with the cherry blossom data is that it's difficult to be 100% sure that we can accurately keep track of the Japanese calendar 1200+ years into the past. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_calendar

Fortunately, df(a x)/dx = 0 when f = C for all a.

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#73

Post by me_again » Tue, Jul 27, 2021, 9:07 PM UTC

"As far as I can tell, there's no other record of any other natural phenomenon on this Earth (climate change related or otherwise), that has been consistently recorded, in writing, more-or-less annually, for the past 1,000+ years. "

We don't need humans to record something in writing. Evidence from physical processes can be used to infer historical climate and temperature, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleothermometer as a starting point.

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#74

Post by atoav » Tue, Jul 27, 2021, 9:08 PM UTC

chromaton wrote: post #54

atoav wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can we be sure we have not selected them for later blooms and things are even worse than we thought? : )

Yeah, I get that this article shows evidence, but it's not the slam dunk that the author is making it out to be.

Given the evidence slam dunks are not needed. The situation is so clear only delusional (or highly uninformed) people convince themselves there is still soubt about it

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#75

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Jul 27, 2021, 9:08 PM UTC

sillysaurusx wrote: post #17

monktastic1 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure I understand. Why deny something that you claim not to know enough about?

Heh. Well, since you asked... There's a distressing pattern: the idea that "man made climate change exists, therefore disaster." The "disaster" part is the part I've never truly been able to convince myself of. I don't deny it -- you're right, it's more along the lines of agnosticism. But I think it's really easy to convince yourself of doom. However, striving to be something resembling a scientist, I recognize that…

[deleted]

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#76

Post by whatshisface » Tue, Jul 27, 2021, 9:09 PM UTC

ashayh wrote: post #69

sillysaurusx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m a climate change denier. A lot of us keep our opinions to ourselves, mostly because we know we don’t know enough about it. Articles like these help change my mind. Well, partly. The question I keep coming to is “how do you know any of this matters, for a definition of ‘matter’ that includes widespread upheaval of human societies?” But at this point I go meh, not worth the risk. Point is, condescending remarks onl…

What if there is no climate emergency .. and we reduced fossil fuel pollution & improved air quality for all, stopped destroying forests, rivers, lakes and oceans, stopped the massive decline in fish & animal species, reduced drought by restoring the water tables, reduced drinking water pollution etc etc .. all for nothing? https://medium.com/thoughts-economics-politics-sustainabilit...

Capping CO2 released may reduce air pollution due to burning, but it won't do very much about the water tables, except by improving the climate.

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#77

Post by krona » Tue, Jul 27, 2021, 9:11 PM UTC

diffset wrote: post #7

sillysaurusx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m a climate change denier. A lot of us keep our opinions to ourselves, mostly because we know we don’t know enough about it. Articles like these help change my mind. Well, partly. The question I keep coming to is “how do you know any of this matters, for a definition of ‘matter’ that includes widespread upheaval of human societies?” But at this point I go meh, not worth the risk. Point is, condescending remarks onl…

If you want evidence of widespread upheaval, just look at California's weather data over the past few decades. It's consistently gotten hotter and dryer, causing more and more fires that are killing hundreds of people per year and destroying entire towns. It's not about believing in climate change, it's about *understanding* it. It's very real. https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Wildfires-...

I took the time to read the PDF you linked to and in terms of actual evidence all I found was a some hand-wavy article by a German reinsurance company. Surely there is some better evidence than this?

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#78

Post by lovecg » Tue, Jul 27, 2021, 9:11 PM UTC

ashayh wrote: post #69

sillysaurusx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m a climate change denier. A lot of us keep our opinions to ourselves, mostly because we know we don’t know enough about it. Articles like these help change my mind. Well, partly. The question I keep coming to is “how do you know any of this matters, for a definition of ‘matter’ that includes widespread upheaval of human societies?” But at this point I go meh, not worth the risk. Point is, condescending remarks onl…

What if there is no climate emergency .. and we reduced fossil fuel pollution & improved air quality for all, stopped destroying forests, rivers, lakes and oceans, stopped the massive decline in fish & animal species, reduced drought by restoring the water tables, reduced drinking water pollution etc etc .. all for nothing? https://medium.com/thoughts-economics-politics-sustainabilit...

That’s cute but it should also list “what if we kept developing countries in poverty (by denying quick and dirty industrialization that we ourselves enjoyed) for nothing”. The problem is hard because there are hard decisions to make.

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#79

Post by _y5hn » Tue, Jul 27, 2021, 9:12 PM UTC

ashayh wrote: post #69

sillysaurusx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m a climate change denier. A lot of us keep our opinions to ourselves, mostly because we know we don’t know enough about it. Articles like these help change my mind. Well, partly. The question I keep coming to is “how do you know any of this matters, for a definition of ‘matter’ that includes widespread upheaval of human societies?” But at this point I go meh, not worth the risk. Point is, condescending remarks onl…

What if there is no climate emergency .. and we reduced fossil fuel pollution & improved air quality for all, stopped destroying forests, rivers, lakes and oceans, stopped the massive decline in fish & animal species, reduced drought by restoring the water tables, reduced drinking water pollution etc etc .. all for nothing? https://medium.com/thoughts-economics-politics-sustainabilit...

What was lost then?

What didn't we lose?

Do you require water to function? How about food?

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#80

Post by kbutler » Tue, Jul 27, 2021, 9:13 PM UTC

xrd wrote: post #4

It's a great article. The real problem with evidence like this is that the "believer" must strive for 100% accuracy; that is really hard. The "skeptic" only needs to have one single piece of data turn out to be inaccurate, and then can doubt the entire thing; that is really easy. And, we can hold both things in our heads. I just went to the Newport Aquarium in Oregon. There is a terrific exhibit which shows a paleobo…

> The "skeptic" only needs to have one single piece of data turn out to be inaccurate

“The great tragedy of Science–the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact.” –British biologist Thomas H. Huxley (1825-1895)

This is the scientific method - theories must explain/not contradict any known facts, and must predict unexpected new facts that can be verified by experiment.