> But in practice the debate about the death penalty is not about whether it's ok to kill murderers. It's about whether it's ok to kill innocent people, because at least 4% of people on death row are innocent.
I think we should also quantify how many people are victims of recidivism. You could make the exact same argument but instead of protecting innocent people wrongly on the death row , you would argue to protect innocent people victims of recidivists murderers.
I've found a bit of data [0] from an article [1] which has 3 homicide among 92 paroled homicide offenders. That's a bit more than 3% which is not far from 4%. The data here is of "lower quality" (there's less people on a shorter timeframe) than the one quoted in the article [2]. However, that same article estimates a 4.1% false conviction rate but adds:
> The most charged question in this area is different: How many innocent defendants have been put to death (6)? We cannot estimate that number directly but we believe it is comparatively low. If the rate were the same as our estimate for false death sentences, the number of innocents executed in the United States in the past 35 y would be more than 50 (20). We do not believe that has happened.
So the article doesnt' support "at least 4% of people on the death row are innocent".
[0]: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Types-of-Recidivism-Amon...
[1]: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259809249_Criminal_...
[2]: https://www.pnas.org/content/111/20/7230