A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal • Hacker News Board

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#71

Post by kens » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 3:21 PM UTC

briandear wrote: post #56

toomuchtodo wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CDC had a pandemic team, they were let go. California had a reserve of ventilators, which were liquidated due to “budget reasons”. The problem isn’t risk experts; the problem is that government representatives elected have no domain expertise nor leadership fortitude to put domain experts into the driver’s seat when the situation dictates. China, for all its failings, gets this right. Their leadership is more STE…

> The CDC has a pandemic team, they were let go. Can we please stop parroting that distortion of the facts? https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/dems-misconstrue-trump-bud... > China, for all its failings, gets this right. Their leadership is more STEM and less lawyers and politicians. You don't know anything about China's leadership. They're all politicians. Not a decision gets made without it being vetted ideologicall…

>> The CDC has a pandemic team, they were let go. >Can we please stop parroting that distortion of the facts?

I'm not a fan of fact-checker battles but Snopes says "Claim: The Trump administration fired the U.S. pandemic response team in 2018 to cut costs. True."

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#72

Post by rietta » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 3:21 PM UTC

bwb wrote: post #12

coldcode wrote: post #3

While I agree that it will take longer (and wind up different looking) to full recovery, having governments and business plan for the next pandemic will not happen. Short sighted people do not waste time on long term thinking.

I'd also point out that planning for "high risk" events like this is not something small to medium size businesses should be doing. Government yes, but I don't expect my mexican restaurant to have a plan in case of a global pandemic :). Just like I don't expect them to hedge pork futures so my pork tamales don't go up 8 cents. Gov is insurance and I want them to be building resilience into the system. That is done wi…

For most small businesses, disaster planning is going the full Dave Ramsey. Be debt free in your personal life. Have a 6 month emergency fund. Don't hire in your business until it hurts and is impossible without the additional help. Build up 3-6 months of cash cushion in the business. For most businesses, this take a decade or more of delaying self gratification but the end result is stability. You're much better off if you don't owe a bunch of bills and have a little cash in an emergency.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#73

Post by meddlepal » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 3:21 PM UTC

amiga_500 wrote: post #64

meddlepal wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Heck even a crowded bar or restaurant is going to give people pause.

Pause? There is no way I'm taking my family to a crowded restaurant until either full scale frequent testing (with intra-region travel quarantine) proves it's gone or an effective vaccine is deployed at scale, or lastly if some medicine which means you get mild symptoms and no after-effects is developed.

Exactly, this a whole new ballgame in terms of what kind of businesses are going to be viable.

The restaurant and bar industry might be toast and that's going to have big social and cultural impacts.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#74

Post by rsync » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 3:22 PM UTC

londons_explore wrote: post #18

vikramkr wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also think a lesson people might have learned on the business side is that theres almost no point planning for something like this - how is a small business supposed to have enough cash on hand to make it through something like this? This is just so bad for so many restaurants/small businesses etc that it's not really something you can overcome with some planning if you own a small margin small business

The same is true of a fire in your small restaurant. Yet people buy insurance for that. Pandemic insurance could exist, and a massive fund could be built up over many decades to pay out when a pandemic does occur. It would be expensive though. If a pandemic occurs every 100 years, and cuts revenue to zero for 6 months, that means the average cost is 0.5% of revenue...

"Pandemic insurance could exist ..."

Pandemic insurance does exist:

https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/w...

"Meanwhile The Times as well as The Guardian reported the estimated payout for the cancelation to be in excess of £100 million (around $123.7 million). AELTC is said to be in the process of putting together the claim."

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#75

Post by briandear » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 3:23 PM UTC

Invictus0 wrote: post #51

kristianc wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Gov is insurance and I want them to be building resilience into the system. This is kind of one of those ‘Hindsight is 20-20’ things. During the good times, building resilience means buying extra capacity that you do not need, and answering awkward questions about empty wards and hospital beds. In good times, the demand from the people is that every dollar is spent well, which is usually defined as meeting demand i…

This has been discussed many times, but the united states previously had a highly qualified pandemic response team which could have taken action as early as January based on the intelligence coming out of China. The reality is that thousands of deaths could have been prevented without building extra beds and buildings, but no action was taken because our elected officials do not understand exponential growth.

> could have taken action as early as January

At the exact same time China and the WHO were lying that this wasn't person-to-person transmissible?

December 30: Dr. Li Wenliang sent a message to a group of other doctors warning them about a possible outbreak of an illness that resembled severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), urging them to take protective measures against infection.

December 31: The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission declares, “The investigation so far has not found any obvious human-to-human transmission and no medical staff infection.” This is the opposite of the belief of the doctors working on patients in Wuhan, and two doctors were already suspected of contracting the virus.

January 2: One study of patients in Wuhan can only connect 27 of 41 infected patients to exposure to the Huanan seafood market — indicating human-to-human transmission away from the market. A report written later that month concludes, “evidence so far indicates human transmission for 2019-nCoV. We are concerned that 2019-nCoV could have acquired the ability for efficient human transmission.” Also on this day, the Wuhan Institute of Virology completed mapped the genome of the virus. The Chinese government would not announce that breakthrough for another week. [1]

January 3: China’s National Health Commission, ordered institutions not to publish any information related to the unknown disease, and ordered labs to transfer any samples they had to designated testing institutions, or to destroy them. Also on this day, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission released another statement, repeating, “As of now, preliminary investigations have shown no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission and no medical staff infections.” [2]

January 8: Chinese medical authorities claim and Western media continue to repeat, “there is no evidence that the new virus is readily spread by humans, which would make it particularly dangerous, and it has not been tied to any deaths.” [3]

[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-it-all-started-chinas-early... [2] https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/how-early-signs-... [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/08/health/china-pneumonia-ou...

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#76

Post by Digory » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 3:23 PM UTC

bwb wrote: post #12

coldcode wrote: post #3

While I agree that it will take longer (and wind up different looking) to full recovery, having governments and business plan for the next pandemic will not happen. Short sighted people do not waste time on long term thinking.

I'd also point out that planning for "high risk" events like this is not something small to medium size businesses should be doing. Government yes, but I don't expect my mexican restaurant to have a plan in case of a global pandemic :). Just like I don't expect them to hedge pork futures so my pork tamales don't go up 8 cents. Gov is insurance and I want them to be building resilience into the system. That is done wi…

Private insurance, or a federal pool, should be able to cover businesses for 8 weeks. The market can deliver that.

Though, what the government wants right now is more than direct losses paid. The purpose of covering business payrolls is to keep money velocity up.

It is astounding that the US can’t even seem to get helicopter money right.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#77

Post by rietta » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 3:23 PM UTC

vorpalhex wrote: post #24

bwb wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd also point out that planning for "high risk" events like this is not something small to medium size businesses should be doing. Government yes, but I don't expect my mexican restaurant to have a plan in case of a global pandemic :). Just like I don't expect them to hedge pork futures so my pork tamales don't go up 8 cents. Gov is insurance and I want them to be building resilience into the system. That is done wi…

I wouldn't expect your local mexican restaurant to have an emergency stockpile of ventilators (as handy as that may be right now..) but I would expect most clever small businesses to have resiliency by keeping cash on hand, operational flexibility (can they switch to a to-go model?) and not over-expanding. You can't prepare for specific black swans, but you can generally structure things to be more or less resilient.…

I agree. For most small businesses, going the Dave Ramsey way is best. Be debt free, build a cash cushion, and as you say grow slow and methodically with cash not cash you think you might have next month.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#78

Post by rapind » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 3:24 PM UTC

kristianc wrote: post #35

bwb wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd also point out that planning for "high risk" events like this is not something small to medium size businesses should be doing. Government yes, but I don't expect my mexican restaurant to have a plan in case of a global pandemic :). Just like I don't expect them to hedge pork futures so my pork tamales don't go up 8 cents. Gov is insurance and I want them to be building resilience into the system. That is done wi…

> Gov is insurance and I want them to be building resilience into the system. This is kind of one of those ‘Hindsight is 20-20’ things. During the good times, building resilience means buying extra capacity that you do not need, and answering awkward questions about empty wards and hospital beds. In good times, the demand from the people is that every dollar is spent well, which is usually defined as meeting demand i…

Except that M4A was actually a very popular idea even before coronavirus. There's more nuance / agendas at play here then basic demand / popularity.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#79

Post by AriaMinaei » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 3:25 PM UTC

sremani wrote: post #21

bwb wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd also point out that planning for "high risk" events like this is not something small to medium size businesses should be doing. Government yes, but I don't expect my mexican restaurant to have a plan in case of a global pandemic :). Just like I don't expect them to hedge pork futures so my pork tamales don't go up 8 cents. Gov is insurance and I want them to be building resilience into the system. That is done wi…

A Global Pandemic is NOT A BLACK SWAN. As matter of FACT, it was predicted by Taleb and according to him it is a WHITE SWAN. The true problem here is the so called Risk "experts" do not understand Risk, and that is the core problem.

Exactly. This is the furthest thing from a black swan. A global pandemic was always a matter of when, not if (still is). That, by definition, is not a black swan. Plus, we in EU/NA had plenty of notice since January to prepare, and we chose to bury our head in the sand instead.

Prominent people call this a black swan just to deflect responsibility, and perhaps to get a bit of bailout money on the side.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#80

Post by jasonv » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 3:27 PM UTC

vorpalhex wrote: post #24

bwb wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd also point out that planning for "high risk" events like this is not something small to medium size businesses should be doing. Government yes, but I don't expect my mexican restaurant to have a plan in case of a global pandemic :). Just like I don't expect them to hedge pork futures so my pork tamales don't go up 8 cents. Gov is insurance and I want them to be building resilience into the system. That is done wi…

I wouldn't expect your local mexican restaurant to have an emergency stockpile of ventilators (as handy as that may be right now..) but I would expect most clever small businesses to have resiliency by keeping cash on hand, operational flexibility (can they switch to a to-go model?) and not over-expanding. You can't prepare for specific black swans, but you can generally structure things to be more or less resilient.…

Tons of companies with "cash on hand" still responded to the current conditions by shedding employees immediately.

I'd argue that the poor government response to pandemic planning led those companies to conclude that whatever length of time this event was to last, there weren't strong signs that national management would mitigate that. They probably read those leaves correctly.

It's not just about the businesses.

(I say all this as someone who got laid off and has some savings but can't last as long as I would've 5 years ago...)